Change in Stream Flow of Gumara Watershed, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia under Representative Concentration Pathway Climate Change Scenario

Chakilu, Gashaw Gismu; Sandor, Szegedi; Zoltan, Turi

doi:10.20944/preprints202009.0621.v1

2020

DOI: 10.20944/preprints202009.0621.v1

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Change in Stream Flow of Gumara Watershed, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia under Representative Concentration Pathway Climate Change Scenario

Gashaw Gismu Chakilu¹,

Szegedi Sandor²,

Turi Zoltan³

Abstract: Climate change plays a pivotal role in the hydrology of tributaries in the upper Blue Nile basin. This study was designed to reveal the extent to which climate change impacts on stream flow of the Gumara watershed under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate change scenario. The study considered the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios using the second generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2). The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was used for calibration and projection of future c… Show more

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Cited by 8 publications

References 21 publications

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Application of coupled MIKE SHE/MIKE HYDRO on streamflow dynamics under climate change in Lake Tana sub basin, Abay Basin, Ethiopia

Fetene,

Lohani,

Mohammed

2024

World Water Policy

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Water availability and quality are fluctuating due to climate change, which has disastrous effects on life. Modeling climate change impact on streamflow in the Lake Tana sub‐basin (LTSB) in selected watersheds was the main goal of the research. This research is unique in that it applies the coupled MIKE SHE/MIKE HYDRO model technique, which has not been applied before to investigate changes in streamflow due to climate change in LTSB. Streamflow in the LTSB was forecasted using the MIKE SHE/MIKE HYDRO model from seven ensembles of GCMs under two emission scenarios (SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5) between 2041 and 2,100. According to the calibration and validation results in the period of 1985–2007, MIKE SHE performs well while simulating streamflow in LTSB. During calibration and validation, the Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values in all watersheds were greater than 0.8, except for the Ribb watershed calibration, where it was 0.75. The mean monthly changes in temperatures indicate an incremental tendency in the next decades. According to the simulation result, the monthly mean rainfall for SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 will increase from 0.05 to 61.9% and 2.02 to 46.26% in the 2050s and 8.7 to 44.38% to 6.44 to 66.24% in the 2080s, respectively. Gilgle Abay, Gumara, and Ribb watersheds will lose 56.2, 56.65, 57.01% of their mean monthly streamflow in the 2050s, according to SSP2–4.5. For the Gilgle Abay, Gumara, and Ribb watersheds, streamflow will increase by 6.7% to 21.94%, 6.08% to 23.26%, and 6.51% to 22.88%, accordingly, in the 2050s under SSP5–8.5. Increased rainfall in the watershed could result in floods in the already‐flooded Gumara and Ribb flood plains. The government and community should implement coping mechanisms to lessen the impact of climate change like early warring and planting more trees. Overall, the study showed that it is expected that conditions related to streamflow may change in the future due to climate alteration. By offering a better understanding of current and future climates, the integrated modeling system developed can assist environmentalists, hydrologists, and policymakers in water management and policy intervention.

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Application of coupled MIKE SHE/MIKE HYDRO on streamflow dynamics under climate change in Lake Tana sub basin, Abay Basin, Ethiopia

Fetene,

Lohani,

Mohammed

2024

World Water Policy

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Water Erosion Monitoring and Prediction in Response to the Effects of Climate Change Using RUSLE and SWAT Equations: Case of R’Dom Watershed in Morocco

Alitane¹,

Essahlaoui²,

Hafyani³

et al. 2022

Land

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Soil erosion is an increasingly issue worldwide, due to several factors including climate variations and humans’ activities, especially in Mediterranean ecosystems. Therefore, the aim of this paper is: (i) to quantify and to predict soil erosion rate for the baseline period (2000–2013) and a future period (2014–2027), using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model in the R’Dom watershed in Morocco, based on the opportunities of Remote Sensing (RS) techniques and Geographical Information System (GIS) geospatial tools. (ii) we based on classical statistical downscaling model (SDSM) for rainfall prediction. Due to the lack of field data, the model results are validated by expert knowledge. As a result of this study, it is found that both agricultural lands and bare lands are most affected by soil erosion. Moreover, it is showed that soil erosion in the watershed was dominated by very low and low erosion. Although the area of very low erosion and low erosion continued to decrease. Hence, we hereby envisage that our contribution will provide a more complete understanding of the soil degradation in this study area and the results of this research could be a crucial reference in soil erosion studies and also may serve as a valuable guidance for watershed management strategies.

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To What Extent Is Hydrologic Connectivity Taken into Account in Catchment Studies in the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia? A Review

Astuti

Annys

Dessie

et al. 2022

Land

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Knowledge of hydrologic connectivity is important to grasp the hydrological response at a basin scale, particularly as changes in connectivity can have a negative effect on the environment. In the context of a changing climate, being able to predict how changes in connectivity will affect runoff and sediment transport is particularly relevant for land-use planning. Many studies on hydrology, geomorphology and climatology have been conducted in the Lake Tana Basin in Ethiopia, which is undergoing rapid development and significant environmental changes. This systematic literature review aims at assessing to what extent the hydrologic connectivity has been taken into account in such research, and to identify research gaps relevant to land and water management. On the Web of Science and Scopus databases, 135 scientific articles covering those topics were identified. Aspects of hydrologic connectivity were mostly implicitly taken into account based on process-based, statistical and descriptive models. Amongst the drivers of changing connectivity, the climate was covered by a large majority of publications (64%). Components of structural hydrologic connectivity were accounted for by considering geomorphology (54%) and soils (47%), and to a lesser extent, hydrography (16%) and geology (12%). Components of functional connectivity were covered by looking at surface water fluxes (61%), sediment fluxes (18%) and subsurface water fluxes (13%). While numerous studies of the Lake Tana Basin accounted for the hydrologic connectivity implicitly, these related predominantly to functional components. The structural components are given less attention, while in the context of a changing climate, better insights into their influence on the hydrologic seem most relevant. Better knowledge of the static aspect of connectivity is particularly important for targeting appropriate soil and water conservation strategies. Being able to explicitly assess the ‘structural connectivity’ is therefore of direct relevance for land management and land-use policy.

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Change in Stream Flow of Gumara Watershed, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia under Representative Concentration Pathway Climate Change Scenario

Cited by 8 publications

References 21 publications

Application of coupled MIKE SHE/MIKE HYDRO on streamflow dynamics under climate change in Lake Tana sub basin, Abay Basin, Ethiopia

Application of coupled MIKE SHE/MIKE HYDRO on streamflow dynamics under climate change in Lake Tana sub basin, Abay Basin, Ethiopia

Water Erosion Monitoring and Prediction in Response to the Effects of Climate Change Using RUSLE and SWAT Equations: Case of R’Dom Watershed in Morocco

To What Extent Is Hydrologic Connectivity Taken into Account in Catchment Studies in the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia? A Review

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