Change in the precipitation intensity of the East Asian summer monsoon projected by CMIP3 models

Kusunoki, Shoji; Arakawa, Osamu

doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1234-7

Cited by 59 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…It should be noted that the present climatological summer monsoon rainband from East China to Japan is underestimated by BCC_CSM1.1 (Fig. 10e), which is a bias common to most climate models (Kusunoki and Arakawa 2012). This increases the uncertainty of the precipitation change projected under the RCPs.…”

Section: Atmospheric Circulationmentioning

confidence: 96%

Climate Change Projections over East Asia with BCC_CSM1.1 Climate Model under RCP Scenarios

Xin

Zhang

et al. 2013

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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We study climate change projections over East Asia under various representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios using simulations performed with the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1 (BCC_ CSM1.1) for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Under all RCPs (including RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5), East Asian climate is found to be warmer and wetter in the 21st century than the present climatology (1986̶2005). For 2080̶2099, East Asian mean surface air temperature (precipitation) is higher than that for the present climatology by 0.98°C (4.4%) under RCP2.6, 1.89°C (7.7%) under RCP4.5, 2.47°C (7.1%) under RCP6.0, and 4.06°C (9.1%) under RCP8.5. Such changes in East Asia are all larger than the corresponding global changes, with greater differences under the higher RCPs. In the simulation of RCP4.5, which is extended to the late 23rd century (2280̶2299), further warming of 0.34°C relative to 2080̶2099 is found in East Asia; this is lower than the global mean warming (0.56°C). Under mitigation scenario RCP2.6, East Asia experiences greater cooling than that experienced globally throughout the 22nd and 23rd centuries.In the late 21st century, East Asian summer mean precipitation increases prominently (by 10̶15%) with respect to the present climatology under all RCPs. This increase in precipitation occurs primarily in southern China and northern East Asia and is associated with anomalous southerly flow in the lower troposphere. Drought occurs in the Yangtze River valley for the middle and high RCPs; we attribute this to anomalous subsidence around 30°N associated with the northward shift of the East Asian jet stream. Under the high scenario (RCP8.5), the western Pacific subtropical high extends westward and northward to southern China and is partly responsible for the deficient precipitation in regions to the south of the Yangtze River.

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Section: Atmospheric Circulationmentioning

confidence: 96%

Climate Change Projections over East Asia with BCC_CSM1.1 Climate Model under RCP Scenarios

Xin

Zhang

et al. 2013

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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“…Kang et al (2002) showed Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM)s underestimate precipitation amount of the Baiu rain band and fail to reproduce the Baiu season. Kusunoki and Arakawa (2012) also indicated most of Atmospheric-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM)s of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) underestimate precipitation amount of the Baiu rain band. Models with higher horizontal resolution in atmosphere improve the reproducibility of the Baiu rain band compared with low resolution models Kusunoki et al 2011, hereafter referred to as K2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of Near Future (2015-2039) Changes in the East Asian Rain Band with Future (2075-2099) Changes Projected by Global Atmospheric Models with 20-km and 60-km Grid Size

Kusunoki¹,

Mizuta²

2012

SOLA

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Global warming projection experiments were conducted using a 20-km mesh global atmospheric model, focusing on the near future (2015−2039, 25 years) change in the rain band of East Asian summer monsoon. In the present-day climate simulations (1979−2003, 25 years), observed historical sea surface temperature (SST)s are given to the models. For the near future and the future (2075−2099, 25 years) climate, A1B emission scenario is assumed. To assess the uncertainty of climate change projections, we performed ensemble simulations with the 60-km resolution model combining four different SSTs and three atmospheric initial conditions. Projections by the 20-km and 60-km models consistently show the increase of July precipitation over Japan, but magnitude of change and level of statistical significance in the near future are smaller than those in the future. The near future projections suggest the delay in the termination of rainy season over Japan, although this delay is less evident and less robust compared with that in the future. We confirmed that the near future climate is located approximately midway between the present-day climate and the future climate, mainly because forcing by greenhouse gases in the near future is also located midway between the present-day climate and the future climate.

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“…In recent years, atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) are the most advanced tools for global climate simulations and projections (Oouchi et al 2006;Anandhi et al 2008;Kusunoki and Arakawa 2012). However, they are unable to well capture local features that are induced by topography and mesoscale disturbances.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rainfall and Tropical Cyclone Activity over Vietnam Simulated and Projected by the Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model - NHRCM

Kieu-Thi

Vu-Thanh

Nguyen-Minh

et al. 2016

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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This study uses the non-hydrostatic regional climate model (NHRCM) to simulate and project rainfall and tropical cyclone (TC) activity over Vietnam. The simulated precipitation shows that climatic heavy rainfall centers are well captured in the seasonal march. In near and far future, the projected rainfall by NHRCM using outputs of the Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation model 3.2 with RCP8.5 scenario will clearly decrease in Northwest and Central Vietnam in June-August, while it will remarkably increase in Northeast and Central Vietnam in September-November. The model underestimates TC number and activity area in the first half of the TC season but slightly overestimates in the second half as compared to the best track. Projected TCs indicate a decrease in both TC number and activity area in near and far future. Moreover, the maximum TC number occurs one month late as compared to the present climate, whereas TC number remarkably decreases in July-August in far future. Rainfall induced by TCs increases in North Vietnam in the projected climate as compared to the baseline period. It also increases in mid-Central Vietnam in near future but decreases in southern Central Vietnam in near and far future. Conversely, non-TC rainfall is likely to decrease in North Vietnam in future and in mid-Central Vietnam in near future but increase in southern Central Vietnam in far future.

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Change in the precipitation intensity of the East Asian summer monsoon projected by CMIP3 models

Cited by 59 publications

References 29 publications

Climate Change Projections over East Asia with BCC_CSM1.1 Climate Model under RCP Scenarios

Climate Change Projections over East Asia with BCC_CSM1.1 Climate Model under RCP Scenarios

Comparison of Near Future (2015-2039) Changes in the East Asian Rain Band with Future (2075-2099) Changes Projected by Global Atmospheric Models with 20-km and 60-km Grid Size

Rainfall and Tropical Cyclone Activity over Vietnam Simulated and Projected by the Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model - NHRCM

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