Change Point Analysis: A Statistical Approach to Detect Potential Abrupt Change

Arif, Siti Nur Afiqah Mohd; Mohsin, Mohamad Farhan Mohamad; Bakar, Azuraliza Abu; Hamdan, Abdul Razak; Abdullah, Sharifah Mastura Syed

doi:10.11113/jt.v79.10388

Cited by 8 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…We also determined the different transmission periods (low, intermediate and high) through a change point analysis of the mean using the Pruned Exact Linear Time (PELT) algorithm 22 . The change point analysis is a method applied on a series of time-ordered data to detect whether changes have occurred, determining the number of changes and estimating dates of changes [23][24][25]…”

Section: Statistical Analysis Temporal Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Geo-epidemiology of Malaria in Burkina Faso, 2013-2018: a recent re-increase

Bationo

Lokossou

Landier

et al. 2021

Preprint

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BackgroundAfter a global decline, malaria cases re-increases have been shown recently.The aim of this analysis was to update the epidemiological facies of malaria in Burkina Faso (around 4% of malaria cases worldwide) by estimating weekly malaria incidences at health district levels, from 2013 to 2018, associated to environmental and meteorological factors.MethodsMalaria cases and deaths weekly reports were extracted from the National Malaria Control Program for each health district from 2013 to 2018. Population data were extracted from the reports of the national statistics council. Environmental data were collected through remote sensing.After estimating incidence through time and space, trend was assessed by an additive decomposition of the incidence and malaria seasons of transmission was estimated by change point analysis (PELT algorithm).Incidence maps for each year of the study period were assessed to highlight spatial variability through years. Maps of rainfall, temperature, and vegetation (NDVI) were produced to characterize the health district environmental variability.ResultsIn 2013, 775 cases /100,000 inhab.week were observed in average, and remain roughly constant until 2015. Malaria re-increased from 2016, reaching 2428 cases /100,000 inhab.week in 2018.From 2013 to 2016, two transmission periods were observed: low from January to July (included) and high from August to December (included).From 2017 to 2018, an intermediate transmission period from mid-November to early January intercalated between the low transmission period from mid-February to early June and the high transmission period from July to late DecemberFrom 2013 to 2015, the most affected districts were located in the center and central-eastern part of the country. From 2016 to 2018 all health districts, except those in the Sahel region, were affected with at least 45,000 cases per 100,000 persons/year. This south-to-north gradient was also observed with rainfall, temperature and NDVI.ConclusionMalaria incidences re-increased through years and across the country since 2016. But no modification of the environmental factor variability was observed during the same period, in time or space. The re-increase of malaria in Burkina Faso could be due to a real increase of the disease, or to a better access to diagnostic and cure, together with the development of the epidemiological information system.

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Section: Statistical Analysis Temporal Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Geo-epidemiology of Malaria in Burkina Faso, 2013-2018: a recent re-increase

Bationo

Lokossou

Landier

et al. 2021

Preprint

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“…Specifically, we considered the spiking activity from 2 s prior to well entry to 4 s following well entry in 100 ms bins. The change point detection was that described by Arif et al (2017). If a single change point was detected prior to well entry, we considered this to be a response.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Electrophysiological responses to appetitive and consummatory behavior in the rostral nucleus tractus solitarius in awake, unrestrained rats

Pilato,

O’Connell,

Victor

et al. 2024

Preprint

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As the intermediate nucleus in the brainstem receiving information from the tongue and transmitting information upstream, the rostral portion of the nucleus tractus solitarius (rNTS) is most often described as a taste relay. Although recent evidence implicates the NTS in a broad neural circuit involved in regulating ingestion, there is little information about how cells in this structure respond when an animal is eating solid food. Here, single cells in the rNTS were recorded in awake, unrestrained rats as they explored and ate solid foods (Eating paradigm) chosen to correspond to the basic taste qualities: milk chocolate for sweet, salted peanuts for salty, Granny Smith apples for sour and broccoli for bitter. A subset of cells was also recorded as the animal licked exemplars of the five basic taste qualities: sucrose, NaCl, citric acid, quinine and MSG (Lick paradigm). Results showed that most cells were excited by exploration of a food-filled well, sometimes responding prior to contact with the food. In contrast, cells that were excited by food well exploration became significantly less active while the animal was eating the food. Most cells were broadly tuned across foods, and those cells that were recorded in both the Lick and Eating paradigms showed little correspondence in their tuning across paradigms. The preponderance of robust responses to the appetitive versus the consummatory phase of ingestion suggests that multimodal convergence onto cells in the rNTS may be used in decision making about ingestion.

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“…Specifically, we considered the spiking activity from 2 s prior to well entry to 4 s following well entry in 100 ms bins. The change point detection was that described by Mohd Arif et al (2017) . If a single change point was detected prior to well entry, we considered this to be a response.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Electrophysiological responses to appetitive and consummatory behavior in the rostral nucleus tractus solitarius in awake, unrestrained rats

Pilato,

O’Connell,

Victor

et al. 2024

Front. Integr. Neurosci.

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IntroductionAs the intermediate nucleus in the brainstem receiving information from the tongue and transmitting information upstream, the rostral portion of the nucleus tractus solitarius (rNTS) is most often described as a “taste relay”. Although recent evidence implicates the caudal NTS in a broad neural circuit involved in regulating ingestion, there is little information about how cells in the rNTS respond when an animal is eating solid food.MethodsSingle cells in the rNTS were recorded in awake, unrestrained rats as they explored and ate solid foods (Eating paradigm) chosen to correspond to the basic taste qualities: milk chocolate for sweet, salted peanuts for salty, Granny Smith apples for sour and broccoli for bitter. A subset of cells was also recorded as the animal licked exemplars of the five basic taste qualities: sucrose, NaCl, citric acid, quinine and MSG (Lick paradigm).ResultsMost cells were excited by exploration of a food-filled well, sometimes responding prior to contact with the food. In contrast, cells that were excited by food well exploration became significantly less active while the animal was eating the food. Most cells were broadly tuned across foods, and those cells that were recorded in both the Lick and Eating paradigms showed little correspondence in their tuning across paradigms.DiscussionThe preponderance of robust responses to the appetitive versus the consummatory phase of ingestion suggests that multimodal convergence onto cells in the rNTS may be used in decision making about ingestion.

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Change Point Analysis: A Statistical Approach to Detect Potential Abrupt Change

Cited by 8 publications

References 18 publications

Geo-epidemiology of Malaria in Burkina Faso, 2013-2018: a recent re-increase

Geo-epidemiology of Malaria in Burkina Faso, 2013-2018: a recent re-increase

Electrophysiological responses to appetitive and consummatory behavior in the rostral nucleus tractus solitarius in awake, unrestrained rats

Electrophysiological responses to appetitive and consummatory behavior in the rostral nucleus tractus solitarius in awake, unrestrained rats

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