Change Scenarios for Sustainable Development

Abstract

SynonymsClimate change scenarios; Pathways to sustainable development; Strategic environmental assessment; Sustainability forecast; Trend analysis for sustainable development DefinitionsChange scenarios for sustainable development consider alternative viable assumptions about future socioeconomic indicators and policies which affect local, regional, or global sustainable development. Scenarios are according to the United Nations (2014, p. 62) "plausible and internally consistent picture of the future. They are useful toolsoften making use of quantitative modelsto systematically explore the feasibility of visions and proposed future pathways towards their achievement. They provide information on the means of implementation that are needed and can be useful in monitoring progress."Change scenarios differ from trend analysis for sustainable development by incorporating uncertainty, in particular in terms of environmental issues. UNEP ( 2004) argues that "scenarios offer a means for examining the forces that shape our world, the uncertainties that lie before us and the implications for tomorrow of our actions today. A scenario is also a story, told in words and numbers, concerning the manner in which future events could unfold; analysis of a range of scenarios offers lessons on how to direct the flow of events towards sustainable pathways and away from unsustainable ones." Thus, whereas scenarios do not set in stone how the future will look like in terms of sustainability and economic development, it does allow us to make a more conscious choice of how society wants to live today, given how these choices could affect the lives of future generations.