Changes and driving factors of compound agricultural droughts and hot events in eastern China

Zhang, Yu; Hao, Zengchao; Shi, Feng; Zhang, Xuan; Hao, Fang

doi:10.1016/j.agwat.2022.107485

Cited by 40 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 60 publications

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“…Temperature and climatic water balance are decisive variables to CDHW events because of their significant effects on single heatwave events and single drought events, respectively (Bevacqua et al., 2022; Y. Zhang, Hao, et al., 2022; Zscheischler & Seneviratne, 2017). There are high correlation coefficients between CDHW magnitude and annual average daily maximum temperature ( T max ), annual total WDI for most land regions (Figure S11a‐b in Supporting Information S1).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Statistical Analysis Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For investigating how the variation of CDHW events can be attributed to variations of its influencing factors, we employ path analysis to explore the response of CDHW events to the temperature and the WDI (i.e., difference between precipitation and PET), of which the selected two drivers are the most critical factors influencing CDHW events (Tomas‐Burguera et al., 2020; Y. Zhang, Hao, et al., 2022). Path analysis is an extension of multiple regression method that accounts for the covariance among variables, which has been widely applied to estimating the magnitude and significance of hypothesized causal connections between dependent and independent variables, when the effects of the variables are confounded (Saito et al., 2009; Smith et al., 1997; Yan et al., 2022).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Effects Of Temperature and Water Deficit On Cdhw Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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High Sensitivity of Compound Drought and Heatwave Events to Global Warming in the Future

et al. 2022

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Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events have received considerable attention in recent years due to their devastating effects on human society and ecosystem. In this study, we systematically investigated the changes of CDHW events in multi‐spatiotemporal scales for historical period (1951–2014) and four future scenarios (2020–2100) (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5) over global land by using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. The responses of the CDHW events to the changes of maximum air temperature and the climatic water balance variable are also examined. The results show that the multi‐model ensembles project a significant increasing trend in CDHW characteristics over almost all global lands under SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5, especially across northern North‐America, Caribbean, Mediterranean and Russian‐Arctic, there is a stronger increasing trend. A significantly increasing CDHW risk will occur across most global land for the medium to long term future without aggressive adaptation and mitigation strategies. The results of path analysis suggest that temperature is the dominant factor influencing CDHW events. Additionally, higher sensitivity of CDHW events to global warming will occur in the future. Particularly, each 1°C global warming increases the duration of the CDHW events by 3 days in the historical period, but by about 10 days in the future period. Overall, this study improves our understanding in the projection of CDHW events and the impacts of climate drivers to the CDHW events under various future scenarios, which could provide supports about the risk assessment, adaptation and mitigation strategies under climate change.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Statistical Analysis Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Effects Of Temperature and Water Deficit On Cdhw Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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High Sensitivity of Compound Drought and Heatwave Events to Global Warming in the Future

et al. 2022

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“…In the past 60 years, an increase in the frequency, duration, and spatial extent of compound dry-hot extremes is observed in China, especially after the 1990s ( Chen et al., 2019b ; Yu and Zhai, 2020b ; Zhang et al., 2022 ), which is accompanied by a remarkable increase in the population exposure ( Feng et al., 2021 ; Wu et al., 2021d ). For example, the frequency of compound dry-hot extremes during summer in the densely populated areas of eastern China increases with a significant trend of 0.4 days per decade for the period from 1961 to 2018, and the population exposure to compound dry-hot extremes has doubled since the late 1990s ( Yu and Zhai, 2020a ).…”

Section: Progress Of Compound Event Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Compound events and associated impacts in China

Hao

2022

iScience

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Global warming increases risk from compound dry‐hot events to human and agricultural systems

Zhang,

Hao,

Jiang

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Owing to their potentially amplified impacts, compound dry‐hot events (CDHEs) can pose serious risk to human life and ecosystems. However, studies have mainly assessed the risk related to CDHEs from the hazard or exposure perspective, while a system risk assessment incorporating the hazard, exposure and vulnerability at the global scale is lacking. This study assessed the risk from CDHEs based on model simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models for different future periods, including near term (2021–2040), mid‐term (2041–2060) and long term (2081–2100) periods, under two different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios. Using cropland and population as exposure indicators, the risk from CDHEs to human and agricultural systems was investigated by combing the hazard (the frequency or duration of CDHEs) and vulnerability indicators (GDP and irrigation fraction). Results showed a widespread increase in the risk to human and agricultural systems (represented by the populations and cropland) under the two scenarios (SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5) across the globe, particularly in North America, Europe, Africa and Oceania for population and northern South America, large parts of Europe, and southeast China for cropland. The median values of relative changes in risk to human (cropland) systems were 136%, 213% and 207% (102%, 161% and 225%) for the near term, mid‐term and long term, respectively. The increase in hazards was shown to primarily contribute to the increased population risk. This study may provide useful insights for future risk management of compound extremes in human and agricultural systems.

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Changes and driving factors of compound agricultural droughts and hot events in eastern China

Cited by 40 publications

References 60 publications

High Sensitivity of Compound Drought and Heatwave Events to Global Warming in the Future

High Sensitivity of Compound Drought and Heatwave Events to Global Warming in the Future

Compound events and associated impacts in China

Global warming increases risk from compound dry‐hot events to human and agricultural systems

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