Changes in geographical runoff generation in regions affected by climate and resource development: A case study of the Athabasca River

Peters, Daniel L.; Watt, Dillon; Devito, K. J.; Monk, Wendy; Shrestha, Rajesh R.; Baird, Donald J.

doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100981

Cited by 7 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…These findings of upper and middle course streamflow changes support the conclusion that precipitation and temperature are two of the main factors of the streamflow fluctuation for Athabasca River basin. Together with declining snowfall, and the associated decrease in snow cover depth, spring runoff has decreased, which corresponds with the conclusions of Peters et al (2022), who registered flow decrease at spring break up on the lower course since 1974. The decrease in QmMin on the lower and middle courses during nearly the entire year, as indicated by M-K test results, is important.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 86%

“…Decreases in minimum flows, which typically occur in winter months when the river freezes, can cause freezing of stream reaches throughout the profile due to the large branching of the stream and thus significantly affect winter habitat and the ability of fish populations to migrate for food (Andrishak, Hicks 2010). Peters et al (2022) alerted the need of the development of an environmental flow framework for the downstream the Peace-Athabasca Delta and therefore performed a novel analysis approach that should be considered in water management plans and decision making for this basin. In the Peace-Athabasca Delta area increasing temperatures have been reported for 1960−2005, with the largest increase of nearly 1 °C per decade occurring in the winter months, along with a decrease in annual snowfall of 12 to 41 cm per decade (Ghaderpour, Vujadinovic, Hassan 2021;Timoney 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Trends of hydroclimatic variables and outflow in the Athabasca River basin

Matoušková¹,

Fraindová²

2023

Geografie

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Our study focuses on assessing trends of hydroclimatic variables and their impact on the runoff regime in the Athabasca River basin in two periods (from the beginning of monitoring until 2011 and 1971−2011). Applied methods included the Mann-Kendall statistical test, linear regression, multiplicative decomposition of data series, the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration, and the Range of Variability Approach. Temperature records indicated a strong regional warming trend, which influenced decreased snowfall and a declining trend in spring runoff. Our results indicate that between 1971 and 2011 median discharge values decreased by > 20% on the lower and middle courses of the Athabasca River. Although on the upper course the median long-term minimum discharge increased due to the melting of mountain glaciers, on the middle and lower courses a significant decrease occurred. The discharge variability has also increased. All factors and changes are important because they affect the Athabasca-Peace delta’s ecosystem and socioeconomic activities on the lower course.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 86%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends of hydroclimatic variables and outflow in the Athabasca River basin

Matoušková¹,

Fraindová²

2023

Geografie

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“…The landscape framework and catchment classes provided here and by Winter (2001), Devito et al (2012Devito et al ( , 2017, and Ireson et al (2015), and catchment typologies presented in Ross et al (2021), aid in extrapolating or scaling up catchment R. These contrasts in R with HRA and HU likely explain a large portion of apparent contradiction observed in individual R studies of smaller headwater catchments on the continental Boreal region (e.g., Holecek, 1988;Wells et al, 2017). Importantly, a large range in interannual low flow and frequency of drying should be expected for headwater to larger (fifth to sixth) order rivers, that must be considered in habitat management and water security (Peters et al, 2022) and, for example, the design, construction, and reclamation of landscapes (Devito et al, 2012;Ketcheson et al, 2016).…”

Section: Runoff Behavior and Catchment Types Of The Bpmentioning

confidence: 99%

Runoff Threshold Responses in Continental Boreal Catchments: Nexus of Subhumid Climate, Low‐Relief, Surficial Geology, and Land Cover

Devito,

O’Sullivan,

Peters

et al. 2023

Water Resources Research

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We examined annual runoff from 20 meso‐scale catchments over 25 years, to elucidate how interactions between physiography and long‐term weather patterns influence the magnitude of spatial–temporal thresholds in annual runoff responses in water‐limited, low‐relief, glaciated continental Boreal landscapes. Annual runoff ranged over 2 orders of magnitude (<3 to >300 mm) among catchments receiving similar annual precipitation. Threshold relationships were observed with cumulative regional moisture deficits that reflected spatial–temporal differences in effective storage and antecedent moisture among catchments with differing portions of glacial‐deposit and land‐cover types. The importance of the glacial‐deposit texture and forest‐peatland cover on runoff behavior among catchments varied with weather patterns and catchment antecedent moisture states. Dry states yielded low annual runoff that ranged by 2 orders of magnitude (0–80 mm), with higher values in catchments with predominantly coarse‐textured deposits. During near normal antecedent moisture, annual runoff remained low (<10 mm) in catchments associated with fine‐textured, hummocky landforms and deciduous forests. Annual runoff >10 mm was observed only in catchments with extensive peatlands. Infrequent wet states resulted in increased runoff in all catchments; however, ranges in maximum runoff were associated with heterogeneity in catchment landforms and land covers. Integrating cumulative precipitation with the proportion of glacial‐deposit and land‐cover types within catchments can (a) represent water cycling and regional sink‐source dynamics controlling runoff and (b) provide an effective management framework for predicting climate and land use impacts on regional runoff in water‐limited, low‐relief, glaciated landscapes such as the Boreal Plain.

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“…It is plausible that this current slow Athabasca River avulsion may accelerate in the future. Although a recent study by Peters et al (2022) found a significant decline in March to October mean flows on the lower Athabasca River over the 1958 to 2017 period, Eum et al (2017) projected an increase in mean annual and peak flows in the second half of the 21st century. In response to projected changes in discharge, Dibike et al (2018) estimated that a > 50% increase by the 2080s in the mean annual Athabasca River sediment load delivered to the PAD compared with sediment load in the 1980s.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Athabasca River Avulsion Underway in the Peace‐Athabasca Delta, Canada

Wang

Smith

Gleason

et al. 2023

Water Resources Research

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Avulsions change river courses and transport water and sediment to new channels impacting infrastructure, floodplain evolution, and ecosystems. Abrupt avulsion events (occurring over days to weeks) are potentially catastrophic to society and thus receive more attention than slow avulsions, which develop over decades to centuries and can be challenging to identify. Here, we examine gradual channel changes of the Peace-Athabasca River Delta (PAD), Canada using in situ measurements and 37 years of Landsat satellite imagery. A developing avulsion of the Athabasca River is apparent along the Embarras River-Mamawi Creek (EM) distributary. Its opening and gradual enlargement since 1982 are evident from multiple lines of observation: Between 1984 and 2021 the discharge ratio between the EM and the Athabasca River more than doubled, increasing from 9% to 21%. The EM has widened by +53% since 1984, whereas the Athabasca River channel width has remained stable. The downstream Mamawi Creek delta is growing at a discharge-normalized rate roughly twice that of the Athabasca River delta in surface area. Longitudinal global navigation satellite systems field surveys of water surface elevation reveal the EM possesses a ∼2X slope advantage (8 × 10 −5 vs. 4 × 10 −5 ) over the Athabasca River, and unit stream power and bed shear stress suggest enhanced sediment transport and erosional capacity through the evolving flow path. Our findings: (a) indicate that a slow avulsion of the Athabasca River is underway with potentially long-term implications for inundation patterns, ecosystems, and human use of the PAD; and (b) demonstrate an observational approach for identifying other slow avulsions at river bifurcations globally.Plain Language Summary Avulsions shift river courses and move water and sediment to new channels, which affect infrastructure, floodplains, and ecosystems. Slow avulsions take decades to develop and are more difficult to identify. Using on-the-ground measurements and 37 years of Landsat satellite imagery, we analyze gradual channel changes in the Peace-Athabasca River Delta (PAD), Canada. The Athabasca River is changing course such that more of its water enters its westernmost outlet, the Embarras River-Mamawi Creek (EM) channel. Multiple lines of evidence demonstrate that the EM channel has been gradually opening since 1982. Between 1984 and 2021, the water entering the EM channel increased from 9% to 21% of the river's total flow. Since 1984, the EM channel has widened by 53%, while the Athabasca River channel has remained stable. The delta forming at the EM mouth (i.e., Mamawi Creek delta) has grown twice as fast as the Athabasca River delta. Field measurements of water surface elevation show the slope of the EM channel is twice as steep as the slope of the lower Athabasca River (8 × 10 −5 vs. 4 × 10 −5 ). Because water tends to flow down the steepest slope, we expect more water to flow down the EM channel in the future. Our findings indicate a slow capture of Athabasca River water into its EM channel, with potenti...

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Changes in geographical runoff generation in regions affected by climate and resource development: A case study of the Athabasca River

Cited by 7 publications

References 36 publications

Trends of hydroclimatic variables and outflow in the Athabasca River basin

Trends of hydroclimatic variables and outflow in the Athabasca River basin

Runoff Threshold Responses in Continental Boreal Catchments: Nexus of Subhumid Climate, Low‐Relief, Surficial Geology, and Land Cover

Athabasca River Avulsion Underway in the Peace‐Athabasca Delta, Canada

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