Changes in Impacts of Climate Extremes: Human Systems and Ecosystems

Handmer, John; Honda, Yasuhiro; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Arnell, Nigel W.; Benito, Gerardo; Hatfield, Jerry L.; Mohamed, Ismail Fadl El Moula; Peduzzi, Pascal; Wu, Shaohong; Sherstyukov, B. G.; Toko, Kiyoshi; Yan, Zheng; Vicuña, Sebastián; Suarez, Avelino; Abdulla, Amjad; Bouwer, Laurens M.; Campbell, John R.; Hashizume, Masahiro; Hattermann, Fred F.; Heilmayr, Robert; Keating, Adriana; Ladds, Monique; Mach, Katharine J.; Mastrandrea, Michael D.; Mechler, Reinhard; Nobre, Carlos A.; Sanghi, Apurva; Screen, James A.; Smith, Joel B.; Velegrakis, Adonis F.; Vergara, Walter; Waite, Anya M.; Westrich, Jason R.; Whittaker, Joshua; Yin, Yan; Yamano, Hiroya

doi:10.1017/cbo9781139177245.007

Cited by 173 publications

(82 citation statements)

References 325 publications

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“…63 A study on worldwide mortality estimated that 339 000 premature deaths per year (range, 260 000–600 000) were attributable to pollution from forest fires, especially particulates. 64 …”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change

Patz

Frumkin

Holloway

et al. 2014

JAMA

412

152

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IMPORTANCE Health is inextricably linked to climate change. It is important for clinicians to understand this relationship in order to discuss associated health risks with their patients and to inform public policy. OBJECTIVES To provide new US-based temperature projections from downscaled climate modeling and to review recent studies on health risks related to climate change and the cobenefits of efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. DATA SOURCES, STUDY SELECTION, AND DATA SYNTHESIS We searched PubMed and Google Scholar from 2009 to 2014 for articles related to climate change and health, focused on governmental reports, predictive models, and empirical epidemiological studies. Of the more than 250 abstracts reviewed, 56 articles were selected. In addition, we analyzed climate data averaged over 13 climate models and based future projections on downscaled probability distributions of the daily maximum temperature for 2046–2065. We also compared maximum daily 8-hour average ozone with air temperature data taken from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climate Data Center. RESULTS By 2050, many US cities may experience more frequent extreme heat days. For example, New York and Milwaukee may have 3 times their current average number of days hotter than 32°C (90°F). High temperatures are also strongly associated with ozone exceedance days, for example, in Chicago, Illinois. The adverse health aspects related to climate change may include heat-related disorders, such as heat stress and economic consequences of reduced work capacity; respiratory disorders, including those exacerbated by air pollution and aeroallergens, such as asthma; infectious diseases, including vectorborne diseases and waterborne diseases, such as childhood gastrointestinal diseases; food insecurity, including reduced crop yields and an increase in plant diseases; and mental health disorders, such as posttraumatic stress disorder and depression, that are associated with natural disasters. Substantial health and economic cobenefits could be associated with reductions in fossil fuel combustion. For example, greenhouse gas emission policies may yield net economic benefit, with health benefits from air quality improvements potentially offsetting the cost of US and international carbon policies. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Evidence over the past 20 years indicates that climate change can be associated with adverse health outcomes. Health care professionals have an important role in understanding and communicating the related potential health concerns and the cobenefits from policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change

Patz

Frumkin

Holloway

et al. 2014

JAMA

412

152

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“…Extreme precipitation often causes greater economic losses and more destructive disasters than mean climatic conditions [ Handmer et al ., ]. For example, Beijing suffered an extreme precipitation event on 21 July 2012 that caused 78 deaths and economic losses of 11.6 billion yuan [ Sun et al ., ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of anthropogenic activity emerging as intensified extreme precipitation over China

Chen

Wang

2017

JGR Atmospheres

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This study aims to provide an assessment of the effects of anthropogenic (ANT) forcings and other external factors on observed increases in extreme precipitation over China from 1961 to 2005. Extreme precipitation is represented by the annual maximum 1 day precipitation (RX1D) and the annual maximum 5 day consecutive precipitation (RX5D), and these variables are investigated using observations and simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. The analyses mainly focus on the probability‐based index (PI), which is derived from RX1D and RX5D by fitting generalized extreme value distributions. The results indicate that the simulations that include the ANT forcings provide the best representation of the spatial and temporal characteristics of extreme precipitation over China. We use the optimal fingerprint method to obtain the univariate and multivariate fingerprints of the responses to external forcings. The results show that only the ANT forcings are detectable at a 90% confidence level, both individually and when natural forcings are considered simultaneously. The impact of the forcing associated with greenhouse gases (GHGs) is also detectable in RX1D, but its effects cannot be separated from those of combinations of forcings that exclude the GHG forcings in the two‐signal analyses. Besides, the estimated changes of PI, extreme precipitation, and events with a 20 year return period under nonstationary climate states are potentially attributable to ANT or GHG forcings, and the relationships between extreme precipitation and temperature from ANT forcings show agreement with observations.

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“…Large parts of the world are increasingly affected by drought (Handmer et al, 2012), with potentially important consequences for plantemicrobe competition for N and P. A reduction in soil moisture can directly alter the availability of N and P by reducing their mobility in soil where the mobility of P may show greater sensitivity to soil moisture than N, particularly when N is in the nitrate (NO 3 À ) form. For instance, a reduction in soil moisture reduces the diffusivity of N and P, but this effect is greater for P than for N .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%