Changes in North Sea storm surge conditions for four transient future climate realizations

Gaslikova, Lidia; Grabemann, Iris; Groll, Nikolaus

doi:10.1007/s11069-012-0279-1

Cited by 56 publications

(74 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…These return values are comparable to those reported by Lowe and Gregory (2005). Gaslikova et al (2013) also investigated internal climate variability in North Sea storm surge conditions and found multi-decadal variability within one projection as well as between the four transient projections, which is of the same order of magnitude as the increase towards 2100. Such multi-decadal variability was also found by Weidemann (2009), based on statistical downscaling of 17 projections for the SRES scenario A1B only differing by varying initial conditions.…”

Section: Future Changes In Extreme Sea Levelsupporting

confidence: 88%

“…In this study the linear trend over the years 1958-2100 for the five study locations in the German Bight varied between −8 and 18 cm but most of the projections showed an increase in the surge height corrected for time-mean sea-level changes. The trends presented by Gaslikova et al (2013) for the SRES A1B and B1 projections are within the range presented by Weidemann (2009).…”

Section: Future Changes In Extreme Sea Levelsupporting

confidence: 86%

“…However, as such large changes in storm intensity were found in only one GCM (using the storm metric applied) the scaled results should be considered a low confidence projection ). Gaslikova et al (2013) investigated a set of four transient regional projections for the North Sea for which the underlying simulations of the global climate includes combinations of one GCM, two initial states and SRES scenarios A1B and B1. Towards the end of the 21st century (2071-2100) they found an increase in extreme surge heights (mean annual 99th percentiles) in the south-eastern North Sea, which are highest in the German Bight by up to about 15 cm.…”

Section: Future Changes In Extreme Sea Levelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The 95 % confidence range for each return value is shown by the black bars. L2 and L3 depict locations near the East Frisian and North Frisian coast of the German Bight, respectively (Gaslikova et al 2013) two 20-year time slices for 1980-2000 (reference climate) and 2030-2050 (near future climate). For the global simulations an emission scenario similar to IPCC IS92a was used.…”

Section: Future Changes In Wavesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Gaslikova et al 2013). These multidecadal variations bias projected changes estimated for 20-or 30-year time slices.…”

Section: Robustness and Uncertaintiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Projected Change—North Sea

Schrum

Lowe

Meier

et al. 2016

North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment

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Increasing numbers of regional climate change scenario assessments have become available for the North Sea. A critical review of the regional studies has helped identify robust changes, challenges, uncertainties and specific recommendations for future research. Coherent findings from the climate change impact studies reviewed in this chapter include overall increases in sea level and ocean temperature, a freshening of the North Sea, an increase in ocean acidification and a decrease in primary production. However, findings from multi-model ensembles show the amplitude and spatial pattern of the projected changes in sea level, temperature, salinity and primary production are not consistent among the various regional projections and remain uncertain. Different approaches are used to downscale global climate change impacts, each with advantages and disadvantages. Regardless of the downscaling method employed, the regional studies are ultimately affected by the forcing global climate models. Projecting regional climate change impacts on biogeochemistry and primary production is currently limited by a lack of consistent downscaling approaches for marine and terrestrial impacts. Substantial natural variability in the North Sea region from annual to multi-decadal time scales is a particular challenge for projecting regional climate change impacts. Natural variability dominates long-term trends in wind fields and strongly wind-influenced characteristics like local sea level, storm C. Schrum

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Section: Future Changes In Extreme Sea Levelsupporting

confidence: 88%

Section: Future Changes In Extreme Sea Levelsupporting

confidence: 86%

Section: Future Changes In Extreme Sea Levelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Future Changes In Wavesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Gaslikova et al 2013). These multidecadal variations bias projected changes estimated for 20-or 30-year time slices.…”

Section: Robustness and Uncertaintiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Projected Change—North Sea

Schrum

Lowe

Meier

et al. 2016

North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment

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Extreme sea levels on the rise along Europe's coasts

et al. 2017

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Future extreme sea levels (ESLs) and flood risk along European coasts will be strongly impacted by global warming. Yet, comprehensive projections of ESL that include mean sea level (MSL), tides, waves, and storm surges do not exist. Here, we show changes in all components of ESLs until 2100 in view of climate change. We find that by the end of this century, the 100-year ESL along Europe's coastlines is on average projected to increase by 57 cm for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)4.5 and 81 cm for RCP8.5. The North Sea region is projected to face the highest increase in ESLs, amounting to nearly 1 m under RCP8.5 by 2100, followed by the Baltic Sea and Atlantic coasts of the UK and Ireland. Relative sea level rise (RSLR) is shown to be the main driver of the projected rise in ESL, with increasing dominance toward the end of the century and for the high-concentration pathway. Changes in storm surges and waves enhance the effects of RSLR along the majority of northern European coasts, locally with contributions up to 40%. In southern Europe, episodic extreme events tend to stay stable, except along the Portuguese coast and the Gulf of Cadiz where reductions in surge and wave extremes offset RSLR by 20-30%. By the end of this century, 5 million Europeans currently under threat of a 100-year ESL could be annually at risk from coastal flooding under high-end warming. The presented dataset is available through this link: http://data.jrc.ec.europa.eu/collection/LISCOAST. Plain Language SummaryFuture extreme sea levels and flood risk along European coasts will be strongly impacted by global warming. Here, we show changes in all acting components, i.e., sea level rise, tides, waves, and storm surges, until 2100 in view of climate change. We find that by the end of this century the 100-year event along Europe will on average increase between 57 and 81 cm. The North Sea region is projected to face the highest increase, amounting to nearly 1 m under a high emission scenario by 2100, followed by the Baltic Sea and Atlantic coasts of the UK and Ireland. Sea level rise is the main driver of the changes, but intensified climate extremes along most of northern Europe can have significant local effects. Little changes in climate extremes are shown along southern Europe, with the exception of a projected decrease along the Portuguese coast and the Gulf of Cadiz, offseting sea level rise by 20-30%. By the end of this century, 5 million Europeans currently under threat of a 100-year coastal flood event could be annually at risk from coastal flooding under high-end warming.

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Projected Change—Atmosphere

May

Ganske

Leckebusch

et al. 2016

North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment

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Several aspects describing the state of the atmosphere in the North Sea region are considered in this chapter. These include large-scale circulation, means and extremes in temperature and precipitation, cyclones and winds, and radiation and clouds. The climate projections reveal several pronounced future changes in the state of the atmosphere in the North Sea region, both in the free atmosphere and near the surface: amplification and an eastward shift in the pattern of NAO variability in autumn and winter; changes in the storm track with increased cyclone density over western Europe in winter and reduced cyclone density on the southern flank in summer; more frequent strong winds from westerly directions and less frequent strong winds from south-easterly directions; marked mean warming of 1.7-3.2°C for different scenarios, with stronger warming in winter than in summer and a relatively strong warming over southern Norway; more intense extremes in daily maximum temperature and reduced extremes in daily minimum temperature, both in strength and frequency; an increase in mean precipitation during the cold season and a reduction during the warm season; a pronounced increase in the intensity of heavy daily precipitation events, particularly in winter; a considerable increase in the intensity of extreme hourly precipitation in summer; an increase (decrease) in cloud cover in the northern (southern) part of the North Sea region, resulting in a decrease (increase) in net solar radiation at the surface.

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Changes in North Sea storm surge conditions for four transient future climate realizations

Cited by 56 publications

References 20 publications

Projected Change—North Sea

Projected Change—North Sea

Extreme sea levels on the rise along Europe's coasts

Projected Change—Atmosphere

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