Changes in seasonality and magnitude of sub-daily rainfall extremes in Emilia-Romagna (Italy) and potential influence on regional rainfall frequency estimation

Persiano, Simone; Ferri, Elisa; Antolini, Gabriele; Domeneghetti, Alessio; Pavan, V.; Castellarin, Attilio

doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2020.100751

Cited by 11 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 33 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…number of rainy days and frequency of extreme events). Other studies have shown a significant increase in the magnitude of extreme events (Nouaceur & Muraȓescu 2016;Folton et al 2019;Persiano et al 2020).…”

Section: Variability Changes and Breakpoints In Hydrology And Climate...mentioning

confidence: 85%

Changes in precipitation and discharge in a Mediterranean catchment as a response to climate change and human activities

Hrour

Thomas

Fovet

et al. 2022

Journal of Water and Climate Change

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Mediterranean region is considered to be highly affected by climate change with rainfall deficits leading to a significant decrease in rivers discharge. This study aims to assess the impacts of climate change on water resources in a Mediterranean catchment, namely the Bas-Loukkos catchment (Morocco), where pressure on the water resources is already present due to intensive hydro-agricultural development and is likely to increase. Mann–Kendall, Pettitt and Buishand tests were used to analyze trends and detect breakpoints in discharge and precipitation time series over the period 1960–2018. The precipitation–specific discharge relationships has been analysed by the double-mass curve (DMC). The analyses highlighted a decreasing trend in precipitation. A significant breakpoint was detected in early 1970 s, with mean annual precipitation decreasing by 16–26% after this period. Discharge decreased by approximately 35% beginning in the late 1970 s/early 1980 s. The DMC showed different patterns between ‘undisturbed’ sub-catchments and two intensively managed sub-catchments. Wettest Mediterranean catchments are often considered as future water reservoirs to support part of the water needs in arid catchments. This study highlights that such catchments may already be impacted by climate changes, with discharge decreasing, and by water human activities that exert major main pressure on water resources.

show abstract

Section: Variability Changes and Breakpoints In Hydrology And Climate...mentioning

confidence: 85%

Changes in precipitation and discharge in a Mediterranean catchment as a response to climate change and human activities

Hrour

Thomas

Fovet

et al. 2022

Journal of Water and Climate Change

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In the literature, most research on extreme events is carried out in hourly time intervals, whereas with regard to reference periods, there is a tendency to use methods of evaluating extreme events by entering as much data as available, i.e., the longest data set available [31][32][33]. Certainly, the use of long time series can be favourable in the absence of climate change, with stationary extreme events not influenced by trends, while in an opposite situation [34], it is necessary to assess whether it is really favourable for the prediction of expected extreme events or whether it is better to use shorter data intervals, which can take into account the more pronounced upward trends of recent years. The main aim of the present study was precisely to understand whether a shorter interval can lead to differences in the 100-year forecast by favouring return values, which are closer to those occurring.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

GEV Analysis of Extreme Rainfall: Comparing Different Time Intervals to Analyse Model Response in Terms of Return Levels in the Study Area of Central Italy

Gentilucci,

Rossi,

Pelagagge

et al. 2023

Sustainability

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The extreme rainfall events of recent years in central Italy are producing an increase in hydrogeological risk, with disastrous flooding in terms of human lives and economic losses, as well as triggering landslide phenomena in correspondence with these events. A correct prediction of 100-year return levels could encourage better land planning, sizing works correctly according to the expected extreme events and managing emergencies more consciously through real-time alerts. In the recent period, it has been observed that the return levels predicted by the main forecasting methods for extreme rainfall events have turned out to be lower than observed within a few years. In this context, a model widely used in the literature, the generalised extreme value (GEV) with the “block maxima” approach, was used to assess the dependence of this model on the length of the collected precipitation time series and the possible addition of years with extreme events of great intensity. A total of 131 rainfall time series were collected from the Adriatic slope in central Italy comparing two periods: one characterised by 70 years of observations (1951–2020), the other by only 30 years (1991–2020). At the same time, a decision was made to analyse what the effect might be—in terms of the 100-year return level—of introducing an additional extreme event to the 1991–2020 historical series, in this case an event that actually occurred in the area on 15 September 2022. The results obtained were rather surprising, with a clear indication that the values of the 100-year return level calculated by GEV vary according to the length of the historical series examined. In particular, the shorter time series 1991–2020 provided higher return level values than those obtained from the 1951–2020 period; furthermore, the addition of the extreme event of 2022 generated even higher return level values. It follows that, as shown by the extreme precipitation events that have occurred in recent years, it is more appropriate to consider a rather short period because the ongoing climate change does not allow true estimates to be obtained using longer time series, which are preferred in the scientific literature, or possibly questioning the real reliability of the GEV model.

show abstract

“…Floods and backwaters can be seen as a serious hazard in this type of geographical area [22] even for cultivation of products with a high need for water such as rice [23]. Several territorial studies confirm that the Emilia Romagna Region, like other territories in northern Italy, suffers from flooding during extreme rainfall events, confirming the importance of studies concerning the overall resilience of the regional territory and not only of river contexts [24][25][26].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 85%

Spatial Analysis of the Vulnerability to Flooding in the Rural Context: The Case of the Emilia Romagna Region

et al. 2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The adversities of climate change represent a serious risk factor on both food production, rural territories and landscapes. In light of these irreversible trends, the process of adaptation of the rural territory is a necessary step, in order to increase its climate resilience. In this study, the vulnerability assessment was the tool used to evaluate the specific phenomenon of “flooding and backwatering” in the case study of Emilia Romagna region (Italy). The approach was based on the IPCC’s risk analysis methodology, populated by different layers regarding specifical proxies related to the adaptive capacity and the sensitivity of the territory to water stagnation, then we assessed with the normalization process of the different information levels. The aim of the research consisted in the realization of a regional map of the vulnerability to floods and backwaters, in order to rank the territory to this specific phenomenon. The final result could be useful both for the relationship with planning choices and for local-based actions in agricultural policies that in Italy are taken at regional level.

show abstract

Changes in seasonality and magnitude of sub-daily rainfall extremes in Emilia-Romagna (Italy) and potential influence on regional rainfall frequency estimation

Cited by 11 publications

References 33 publications

Changes in precipitation and discharge in a Mediterranean catchment as a response to climate change and human activities

Changes in precipitation and discharge in a Mediterranean catchment as a response to climate change and human activities

GEV Analysis of Extreme Rainfall: Comparing Different Time Intervals to Analyse Model Response in Terms of Return Levels in the Study Area of Central Italy

Spatial Analysis of the Vulnerability to Flooding in the Rural Context: The Case of the Emilia Romagna Region

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About