Changes in Stream Flow and Their Relationships with Climatic Variations and Anthropogenic Activities in the Poyang Lake Basin, China

Gu, Changzhi; Mu, Xingmin; Zhao, Guangju; Gao, Peng; Sun, Wenyi; Yu, Qiang

doi:10.3390/w8120564

Cited by 19 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…This index is simple to calculate and has intuitive physical meaning; thus, it can better represent the concentration degree and seasonality of annual precipitation. Numerous studies on precipitation variability have subsequently used the PCI index [14][15][16][17][18].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and Temporal Variability in Precipitation Concentration over Mainland China, 1961–2017

Jiang

Ren

et al. 2019

Water

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Understanding the patterns and mechanisms of precipitation variations is important for assessing flood and drought risks and for ensuring sustainable water use. Here, we analyzed the characteristics of annual precipitation changes in eight subregions of China using the Mann–Kendall test based on daily precipitation data from 774 rain gauge stations during 1961–2017. Then, we used the monthly precipitation concentration index (PCI) and daily concentration index (CI) to analyze precipitation concentrations. The results are as follows: (1) PCI and CI in northern China generally decreased with time, indicating a uniform precipitation distribution. Notably, the annual precipitation increased significantly in Xinjiang and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, which could alleviate future drought. (2) PCI increased and CI decreased in the plain regions of the Yangtze River and Southeast China, exhibiting high CI values with marked increases of annual precipitation. Such heavy rainfall events combined with high rainfall concentrations could increase the flood risk. (3) A significant PCI increase and CI decrease occurred in Southwest China, where annual precipitation decreased significantly. Regular rainfall decreased notably, which could increase the likelihood of drought hazards. (4) Overall, both indices showed negative trends at most stations; precipitation distribution was generally more uniform over China. These findings improve our understanding of extreme rainfall evolution and water resource distribution over China. Furthermore, PCI and CI can serve as warning tools for disaster control and water resource management.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and Temporal Variability in Precipitation Concentration over Mainland China, 1961–2017

Jiang

Ren

et al. 2019

Water

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“…The MK test and Theil‐Sen estimator ( β ) are used to test the significance and quantify the change rate of the long‐term trend of runoff and SL, respectively. The nonparametric MK test has been widely used to test the significance of the long‐term trend (Gu et al, ; Li et al, ; Zhang et al, ). For a time series of hydrological variable x i ( i = 1,2,3, …, n ), under the null hypothesis H 0 of no change, the normalized statistic index UF k is calculated.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…When UF k exceeds the confidence interval in the two‐tailed test, the null hypothesis H 0 is rejected, indicating a significant increasing or decreasing trend of the time series and vice versa. Serial correlation may cause uncertainty in the original MK test (Gu et al, ; Li et al, ; Zhang et al, ), and the prewhitening method is applied to avoid serial correlation through removing the lag‐1 serial correlation ( r 1 ) of time series. If r a = −0.05 ≤ r 1 ≤ r a = +0.05 , where r a = ±0.05 = (−1 ± 1.96

\sqrt{n - 2} true) / ((), n - 1)

, the time series can be judged as independent at the 0.05 significance level, and the original MK test is practical.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Theil‐Sen estimator ( β ) is a distribution‐free method proposed by Theil () and Kumar Sen () to quantify the change slope of time series x i ( i = 1, 2, 3, …, n ). It has been widely used in trend analysis of stream flow and water quality, covering Europe, Iran, China, and so forth (Clarke, ; Gu et al, ; Hannaford & Buys, ; Hirsch et al, ; Li et al, ; Stahl et al, ) and is expressed as follows:

β = Median ((), \frac{x_{j} - x_{i}}{j - i}) \forall 1 < i < j < n .

…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Especially in dry seasons, the influence is much stronger (Chen et al, ). Meanwhile, the runoff variability (RV) has also changed in river basins such as the Pearl River Estuary, Poyang Lake Basin, Songhua River, and some rivers in the northwest United States (Gu et al, ; Lin et al, ; Luce & Holden, ; Tu et al, ; Xie et al, ). However, the effect of changes in RV on the saltwater intrusion remains unknown, and a detailed quantitative analysis is needed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Effect of Runoff Variability and Sea Level on Saltwater Intrusion: A Case Study of Nandu River Estuary, China

Zhang

Sheng

et al. 2018

Water Resources Research

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Saltwater intrusion exits in estuary areas. Significant change in runoff variability (RV) has been detected in many basins, but limited research has investigated this change's effect on downstream saltwater intrusion. Using measured time series, this study has statistically detected a significant trend of increased RV and sea level (SL) rise in Nandu River Estuary, China, and analyzed their effect on the saltwater intrusion combining the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model and Monte Carlo method. The Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen estimator show that the yearly variance of the log-transformed runoff and mean SL have significantly increased and are expected to increase by approximately 50% and 0.2 m by the 2060s, respectively, and 101% and 0.4 m by the 2100s. SL rise increases the salinity-exceeding rate (salinity > 0.45‰, the standard for drinking water), and the increase in middle channels are higher than that of upstream and downstream channels. With an increased RV, the model-predicted salinity-exceeding rate decreases at downstream and increases at upstream channels, respectively. In our specific site, the location with a constant salinity-exceeding rate is predicted to move downstream, and the maximum increase of salinity-exceeding rate will reach 13.3% and 19.1% in the 2060s and 2100s, respectively, at the middle channel section. The results are validated in Yangtze River Estuary and are generalized to other estuaries to determine the change pattern of salinity-exceeding rate. Moreover, a lower RV helps to extend the channel length with fresh water available and can be used as a management tool.

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Combined effects of runoff increase and sea level rise on the water exchange and saltwater intrusion for an estuary bay in non‐flood season

Zhou

Zhang

et al. 2022

Hydrological Processes

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Estuary bays are vulnerable to salinization effects due to relative sea level rise and modification in upland hydrology owing to a variety of factors. Much research has evaluated the one‐sided effect of runoff discharge or sea level on the water exchange and saltwater intrusion for an estuary, while their combined effects have not been evaluated, especially for an estuary bay with narrow river mouth. Taking the Wanquan Estuary Bay (WEB), China, as study case, this paper has revealed the long‐term significant increasing trend of freshwater runoff in non‐flood season during years 1956–2017 using the Man‐Kendall trend analysis, robust principle component regression and Theil–Sen's estimator. A 3‐D hydrodynamic‐salinity‐tracer numerical model is built and calibrated based on the finite‐volume community ocean model, and the effects of runoff increase and sea level rise on the water exchange and saltwater intrusion are investigated. This paper shows the following: (1) The freshwater runoff during non‐flood season in WEB shows significant long‐term increasing trend, and the mean changing magnitude is 0.4546 m3/s/a. (2) The increased runoff accelerates the water exchange, and reduces the turn‐over time and saltwater intrusion in the WEB. The sea level rise reduces the water exchange and increase the saltwater intrusion. (3) For the estuary bay with narrow river mouth, the salinity distributions show more vertical stratification characteristics. The freshwater runoff has power relationships with the average turnover time and salinity, and the sea level has linear relationships. (4) The water exchange and salinity of an estuary bay is more vulnerable to the changed runoff than the sea level rise, while the impacts of sea level rise would increase for estuaries with wide river mouth. This paper provides support for the freshwater exploitation and utilization in estuary bay under the background of climate change and sea level rise.

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Changes in Stream Flow and Their Relationships with Climatic Variations and Anthropogenic Activities in the Poyang Lake Basin, China

Cited by 19 publications

References 44 publications

Spatial and Temporal Variability in Precipitation Concentration over Mainland China, 1961–2017

Spatial and Temporal Variability in Precipitation Concentration over Mainland China, 1961–2017

Effect of Runoff Variability and Sea Level on Saltwater Intrusion: A Case Study of Nandu River Estuary, China

Combined effects of runoff increase and sea level rise on the water exchange and saltwater intrusion for an estuary bay in non‐flood season

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