Changes in temperature and rainfall extremes across East Asia in the CMIP5 ensemble

Lee, Youngsaeng; Paek, Jayeong; Park, Jeong‐Soo; Boo, Kyung‐On

doi:10.1007/s00704-020-03180-w

Cited by 13 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 53 publications

(61 reference statements)

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“…They have been used to investigate and monitor global changes in extreme events with observational data [9,10,13,14], with projected future data [2,11,[15][16][17] or to evaluate model performance [12,18]. The indices also enable regional analyses of extreme event changes therefore model performance evaluated also regionally [19] and the regional changes in temperature and precipitation extreme events have been assessed for many parts of the world during the recent decades, such as in Australia [20], North America [21,22], the United States [23], the Mediterranean Basin [24], countries of Western Indian Ocean [25], the Arab Region [26], China [5,27,28], Iran [29], Egypt [30], Central and South Asia [31], East Asia [32], Ethiopia [33][34][35], Saudi Arabia [36]. Various detection and attribution studies also used indices [37][38][39].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Indices Over CORDEX-MENA Domain

2021

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In this study, projected changes in climate extreme indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices were investigated over Middle East and North Africa. Changes in the daily maximum and minimum temperature- and precipitation- based extreme indices were analyzed for the end of the 21st century compared to the reference period 1971–2000 using regional climate model simulations. Regional climate model, RegCM4.4 was used to downscale two different global climate model outputs to 50 km resolution under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Results generally indicate an intensification of temperature- and precipitation- based extreme indices with increasing radiative forcing. In particular, an increase in annual minimum of daily minimum temperatures is more pronounced over the northern part of Mediterranean Basin and tropics. High increase in warm nights and warm spell duration all over the region with a pronounced increase in tropics are projected for the period of 2071–2100 together with decrease or no change in cold extremes. According to the results, a decrease in total wet-day precipitation and increase in dry spells are expected for the end of the century.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Indices Over CORDEX-MENA Domain

2021

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“…Previous studies [17][18][19] have reported an increase in observed extreme precipitation in Korea. Lee et al [20] predicted that the increasing changes in the future heavy rainfall across East Asia appear more distinctly in Korea at a local scale, which indicates a higher sensitivity of the Korean peninsula to global warming. It is thus crucial to project and assess the changes in extreme precipitation events in Korea under different scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Projections and Uncertainty Assessment of Precipitation Extremes in the Korean Peninsula from the CMIP6 Ensemble with a Statistical Framework

Shin

Jiang

et al. 2021

Atmosphere

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Scientists occasionally predict projected changes in extreme climate using multi-model ensemble methods that combine predictions from individual simulation models. To predict future changes in precipitation extremes in the Korean peninsula, we examined the observed data and 21 models of the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) over East Asia. We applied generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) to a series of annual maximum daily precipitation (AMP1) data. Multivariate bias-corrected simulation data under three shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios—namely, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5—were used. We employed a model weighting method that accounts for both performance and independence (PI-weighting). In calculating the PI-weights, two shape parameters should be determined, but usually, a perfect model test method requires a considerable amount of computing time. To address this problem, we suggest simple ways for selecting two shape parameters based on the chi-square statistic and entropy. Variance decomposition was applied to quantify the uncertainty of projecting the future AMP1. Return levels spanning over 20 and 50 years, as well as the return periods relative to the reference years (1973–2010), were estimated for three overlapping periods in the future, namely, period 1 (2021–2050), period 2 (2046–2075), and period 3 (2071–2100). From these analyses, we estimated that the relative increases in the observations for the spatial median 20-year return level will be approximately 18.4% in the SSP2-4.5, 25.9% in the SSP3-7.0, and 41.7% in the SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively, by the end of the 21st century. We predict that severe rainfall will be more prominent in the southern and central parts of the Korean peninsula.

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“…It is of great significance to the study of ancient climate, the prediction about climate change in the future, the formulation of government decisions, and for signing intergovernmental agreements [ 14 ]. Based on the CMIP model, many studies on extreme precipitation events have been carried out in different regions, such as China [ 15 ], Australia [ 16 ], East Asia [ 17 ], the Indochina Peninsula, and South China [ 18 ]. These efforts mainly focus on the projection of extreme precipitation indices in the future by using multi-model ensembles and weighted average methods based on model assessments.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Projection of Extreme Precipitation Indices over the Qilian Mountains under Global Warming

Qin

Jin

et al. 2023

IJERPH

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The Qilian Mountains are a climate-sensitive area in northwest China, and extreme precipitation events have an important impact on its ecological environment. Therefore, considering the global warming scenario, it is highly important to project the extreme precipitation indices over the Qilian Mountains in the future. This study is based on three CMIP6 models (CESM2, EC-Earth3, and KACE-1-0-G). A bias correction algorithm (QDM) was used to correct the precipitation outputs of the models. The eight extreme precipitation indices over the Qilian Mountains during the historical period and in the future were calculated using meteorological software (ClimPACT2), and the performance of the CMIP6 models to simulate the extreme precipitation indices of the Qilian Mountains in the historical period was evaluated. Results revealed that: (1) The corrected CMIP6 models could simulate the changes in extreme precipitation indices over the Qilian Mountains in the historical period relatively well, and the corrected CESM2 displayed better simulation as compared to the other two CMIP6 models. The CMIP6 models performed well while simulating R10mm (CC is higher than 0.71) and PRCPTOT (CC is higher than 0.84). (2) The changes in the eight extreme precipitation indices were greater with the enhancement of the SSP scenario. The growth rate of precipitation in the Qilian Mountains during the 21st century under SSP585 is significantly higher than the other two SSP scenarios. The increment of precipitation in the Qilian Mountains mainly comes from the increase in heavy precipitation. (3) The Qilian Mountains will become wetter in the 21st century, especially in the central and eastern regions. The largest increase in precipitation intensity will be observed in the western Qilian Mountains. Additionally, total precipitation will also increase in the middle and end of the 21st century under SSP585. Furthermore, the precipitation increment of the Qilian Mountains will increase with the altitude in the middle and end of the 21st century. This study aims to provide a reference for the changes in extreme precipitation events, glacier mass balance, and water resources in the Qilian Mountains during the 21st century.

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Changes in temperature and rainfall extremes across East Asia in the CMIP5 ensemble

Cited by 13 publications

References 53 publications

Projected Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Indices Over CORDEX-MENA Domain

Projected Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Indices Over CORDEX-MENA Domain

Future Projections and Uncertainty Assessment of Precipitation Extremes in the Korean Peninsula from the CMIP6 Ensemble with a Statistical Framework

Future Projection of Extreme Precipitation Indices over the Qilian Mountains under Global Warming

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