Changes in temperature regime of soil in cryolithozone considering climate warming

Abstract

The current climate change in Russia is characterized as continuing warming. There is an increase of the deformity and accident rate for buildings located in the cryolithozone. It is necessary to identify regions that in the future will be most susceptible to the permafrost degradation and associated risks for existing buildings and structures, which require considering climate warming in the forecast estimates. The purpose of this study was to assess the impact of climate warming on the temperature regime of the soils of the Norilsk district. Numerical modeling of the temperature variation of soil considering air temperature increase according to the regional climate model of the Voeikov MGO on 60 years showed temperature rise of permafrost, lowering its top and increasing the thickness of the seasonally thawed layer. The warming of the climate in the area will have a significant impact on the temperature regime of the soil and will lead to a violation of the operational suitability of existing buildings and structures. In the Norilsk region climate warming should be regarded as a significant accident occurrence factor, which should be considered when calculating the bases in the cryolithozone for the entire period of construction and operation of facilities.