Changes in the German Political Landscape after the Outbreak of the Conflict in Ukraine: Challenges for Russia

Abstract

The article deals with the changes in public opinion and balance of political forces in Germany after the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine. The analyses of sociological polls revealed that German population has been experiencing the break of old patterns and the division on the most important foreign policy issues. Also, the article presents a graph of government rating created by the author. It shows that while the support for ruling coalition declines, opposition’s ranking improves. However, the graph of parties’ ranking demonstrates that the support for governing Social Democratic Party of Germany and the Free Democratic Party, as well as the opposition Left Party dropping, the rating of Christian Democratic Union / Christian Social Union, ‘Alternative for Germany’ and governing Alliance 90 / The Greens improves. Comparison of survey data with party materials revealed the reasons for the strengthening and weakening of various political forces. In the end, the author draws conclusions regarding the impact of changes in the party-political balance on Russian-German relations. The main challenge for our countries is that most German parties are united in condemning Moscow's policies. The more open to dialogue AfD and part of the Left Party have no chance of entering the federal and state governments, and interaction with the right-wing populist ‘Alternative for Germany’ could discredit Russia.