Changes in the mesoscale variability and in extreme sea levels over two decades as observed by satellite altimetry

Woodworth, Philip L.; Ménendez, Melisa

doi:10.1002/2014jc010363

Cited by 21 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 55 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…In the Caribbean, Torres and Tsimplis (2013) found that 2 out of the 5 sites they studied were anti-correlated with ENSO, but Menéndez and Woodworth (2010) found no significant relationship. Woodworth and Menéndez (2015) found that ESL largely followed the pattern of MSL response to ENSO. By contrast, the tropical west Pacific and the coast of Australia showed a negative correlation (Feng and Tsimplis, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 91%

Spatial and Temporal Variability and Long-Term Trends in Skew Surges Globally

Mawdsley

Haigh

2016

Front. Mar. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Storm surges and the resulting extreme high sea levels are among the most dangerous natural disasters and are responsible for widespread social, economic and environmental consequences. Using a set of 220 tide gauges, this paper investigates the temporal variations in storm surges around the world and the spatial coherence of its variability. We compare results derived from two parameters used to represent storm surge: skew surge and the more traditional, non-tidal residual. We determine the extent of tide-surge interaction, at each study site, and find statistically significant (95% confidence) levels of tide-surge interaction at 59% of sites based on tidal level and 81% of sites based on tidal-phase. The tide-surge interaction was strongest in regions of shallow bathymetry such as the North Sea, north Australia and the Malay Peninsula. At most sites the trends in the skew surge time series were similar to those of non-tidal residuals, but where there were large differences in trends, the sites tended to have a large tidal range. Only 13% of sites had a statistically significant trend in skew surge, and of these approximately equal numbers were positive and negative. However, for trends in the non-tidal residual there were significantly more negative trends. We identified 8 regions where there were strong positive correlations in skew surge variability between sites, which meant that a regional index could be created to represent these groups of sites. Despite strong correlations between some regional skew surge indices, none were significant at the 95% level, however, at the 80% level there was significant positive correlation between the north-west Atlantic-south and the North Sea. Correlations between the regional skew surge indices and climate indices only became significant at the 80% level, where Niń o 4 was positively correlated with the Gulf of Mexico skew surge index and negatively correlated with the east Australia skew surge index. The inclusion of autocorrelation in the calculation of correlation greatly reduced their significance, especially in the short time-series used for the regional skew surge indices. Skew surge improved the representation of storm surge magnitudes, and therefore allows a more accurate detection of changes on secular and inter-annual time scales.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 91%

Spatial and Temporal Variability and Long-Term Trends in Skew Surges Globally

Mawdsley

Haigh

2016

Front. Mar. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Regional frequency analysis has occasionally been used with tide‐gauge data to estimate ESL probabilities while overcoming some of the spatial limitations inherent to the global tide gauge network (Hall et al, ), but to our knowledge more sophisticated spatiotemporal extreme value methods (e.g., Reich & Shaby, ) have not yet been employed in this context. Recent advances using satellite altimetry show promise in the ability to complement tide‐gauge observations by predicting coastal ESLs using offshore ESL observations combined with continental shelf characteristics (Lobeto et al, ; Woodworth & Menéndez, ).…”

Section: Projections Of Extreme Sea Level Change and Associated Floodingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition to long‐term trends, ESL probabilities exhibit seasonal and long‐tidal cycles and climate mode covariability (e.g., Aucan et al, ; Haigh et al, ; Marcos et al, ; Menéndez & Woodworth, ; Wahl & Chambers, ; Woodworth & Menéndez, ), which can enhance flooding when contributing processes align (Sweet et al, ; Thompson et al, ). Diagnosing contributory processes within statistical ESL models can provide a degree of predictability if the processes are deterministic in nature or predictable to some degree by climate models (Menendez et al, ; Menéndez & Woodworth, ; Sweet & Park, ; Sweet et al, ; Widlansky et al, ).…”

Section: Projections Of Extreme Sea Level Change and Associated Floodingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Usable Science for Managing the Risks of Sea‐Level Rise

et al. 2019

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Sea-level rise sits at the frontier of usable climate climate change research, because it involves natural and human systems with long lags, irreversible losses, and deep uncertainty. For example, many of the measures to adapt to sea-level rise involve infrastructure and land-use decisions, which can have multigenerational lifetimes and will further influence responses in both natural and human systems. Thus, sea-level science has increasingly grappled with the implications of (1) deep uncertainty in future climate system projections, particularly of human emissions and ice sheet dynamics; (2) the overlay of slow trends and high-frequency variability (e.g., tides and storms) that give rise to many of the most relevant impacts; (3) the effects of changing sea level on the physical exposure and vulnerability of ecological and socioeconomic systems; and (4) the challenges of engaging stakeholder communities with the scientific process in a way that genuinely increases the utility of the science for adaptation decision making. Much fundamental climate system research remains to be done, but many of the most critical issues sit at the intersection of natural sciences, social sciences, engineering, decision science, and political economy. Addressing these issues demands a better understanding of the coupled interactions of mean and extreme sea levels, coastal geomorphology, economics, and migration; decision-first approaches that identify and focus research upon those scientific uncertainties most relevant to concrete adaptation choices; and a political economy that allows usable science to become used science.Plain Language Summary The impacts of sea-level rise pose growing threats to coastal communities, economies, and ecosystems, and decisions made today-in areas like land-use policies, coastal development, and infrastructure investment-will affect exposure and vulnerability for generations to come. Thus, the usability of sea-level science is a pressing concern. Ensuring usability requires grappling with deep uncertainty in long-term sea-level projections, the relationship between long-term trends and the impacts of short-lived extreme events, and the ways in which the physical coast, as well as people and ecosystems along the coast, respond to increasingly frequent flooding. At the same time, it also requires more extensive and deliberate stakeholder engagement throughout the scientific process, as well as cognizance of the political economy of linking stakeholder-engaged science to action.

show abstract

“…One of the most important challenge for coastal adaptation is the rise of sea-level caused by anthropogenic climate change (Slangen et al, 2014b;Dangendorf et al, 2015). At present, there are already evidences that extreme water levels are becoming higher and more frequent (Marcos et al, 2009;Menéndez and Woodworth, 2010;Woodworth et al, 2011;Woodworth and Menéndez, 2015). At longer timescales, contributions from polar ice-sheets largely exceeding one meter are now recognized possible (Golledge et al, 2015;Hansen et al, 2015;Winkelmann et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainties in Sandy Shorelines Evolution under the Bruun Rule Assumption

Cozannet

Oliveros²,

Castelle

et al. 2016

Front. Mar. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

International audienceIn the current practice of sandy shoreline change assessments, the local sedimentary budget is evaluated using the sediment balance equation, that is, by summing the contributions of longshore and cross-shore processes. The contribution of future sea-level rise induced by climate change is usually obtained using the Bruun rule, which assumes that the shoreline retreat is equal to the change of sea-level divided by the slope of the upper shoreface. However, it remains unsure that this approach is appropriate to account for the impacts of future sea-level rise. This is due to the lack of relevant observations to validate the Bruun rule under the expected sea-level rise rates. To address this issue, this article estimates the coastal settings and period of time under which the use of the Bruun rule could be (in)validated, in the case of wave-exposed gently-sloping sandy beaches. Using the sedimentary budgets of Stive (2004) and probabilistic sea-level rise scenarios based on IPCC, we provide shoreline change projections that account for all uncertain hydrosedimentary processes affecting idealized low-and high-energy coasts. Hence, we incorporate uncertainties regarding the impacts of longshore processes, sea-level rise, storms, aeolian, and other cross-shore processes. We evaluate the relative importance of each source of uncertainties in the sediment balance equation using a global sensitivity analysis. For scenario RCP 6.0 and 8.5 and in the absence of coastal defenses, the model predicts a perceivable shift toward generalized beach erosion by the middle of the 21st century. In contrast, the model predictions are unlikely to differ from the current situation in case of scenario RCP 2.6. Finally, the contribution of sea-level rise and climate change scenarios to sandy shoreline change projections uncertainties increases with time during the 21st century. Our results have three primary implications for coastal settings similar to those provided described in Stive (2004) : first, the validation of the Bruun rule will not necessarily be possible under scenario RCP 2.6. Second, even if the Bruun rule is assumed valid, the uncertainties around average values are large. Finally, despite these uncertainties, the Bruun rule predicts rapid shoreline retreat of sandy coasts during the second half of the 21st century, if greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere are not drastically reduced (scenarios RCP 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5)

show abstract

Changes in the mesoscale variability and in extreme sea levels over two decades as observed by satellite altimetry

Cited by 21 publications

References 55 publications

Spatial and Temporal Variability and Long-Term Trends in Skew Surges Globally

Spatial and Temporal Variability and Long-Term Trends in Skew Surges Globally

Usable Science for Managing the Risks of Sea‐Level Rise

Uncertainties in Sandy Shorelines Evolution under the Bruun Rule Assumption

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About