Changes in the timing of winter–spring streamflows in eastern North America, 1913–2002

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Dudley, Robert W.

doi:10.1029/2005gl025593

Cited by 146 publications

(155 citation statements)

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“…Considering peak volume, the occurrence dates are commonly recorded for a fixed time period or specific amount of peak volume, often in the context of trend analysis. For example, Hodgkins and Dudley (2006) use winterspring center of volume (WSCV) dates to analyze trends in snowmelt-induced floods, and Burn (2008) uses percentiles of annual streamflow volume dates as indicators of flood timing, also for trend analysis. For peak timing, two sampling methods are frequently applied in hydrology.…”

Section: Methodology For Defining Grid-cell-scale High-flow Seasonsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Defining high-flow seasons using temporal streamflow patterns from a global model

Lee

Ward

Block

2015

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Globally, flood catastrophes lead all natural hazards in terms of impacts on society, causing billions of dollars of damages annually. Here, a novel approach to defining high-flow seasons (3-month) globally is presented by identifying temporal patterns of streamflow. The main high-flow season is identified using a volume-based threshold technique and the PCR-GLOBWB model. In comparison with observations, 40 % (50 %) of locations at a station (subbasin) scale have identical peak months and 81 % (89 %) are within 1 month, indicating fair agreement between modeled and observed high-flow seasons. Minor high-flow seasons are also defined for bi-modal flow regimes. Identified major and minor high-flow seasons together are found to well represent actual flood records from the Dartmouth Flood Observatory, further substantiating the model's ability to reproduce the appropriate high-flow season. These high-spatial-resolution high-flow seasons and associated performance metrics allow for an improved understanding of temporal characterization of streamflow and flood potential, causation, and management. This is especially attractive for regions with limited observations and/or little capacity to develop early warning flood systems.

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Section: Methodology For Defining Grid-cell-scale High-flow Seasonsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Defining high-flow seasons using temporal streamflow patterns from a global model

Lee

Ward

Block

2015

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Greenhouse gases change the energy balance of the atmosphere and lead to atmospheric warming, which increases the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere, which in turn, potentially changes the amounts of precipitable water. The resultant warming also changes the form of precipitation (more rain and less snow), changes the timing of snowmelt (Dettinger and Cayan 1995, Milly et al 2002, Hodgkins and Dudley 2006, is projected to change storm tracks, and may change the frequency and intensity of large-scale ocean/climate conditions such as El Niño/Southern Oscillation; therefore, the idea that river flood characteristics have changed, or will change, as a result of increased greenhouse gas ISSN 0262-6667 print/ISSN 2150-3435 online This work was authored as part of the Contributor's official duties as an Employee of the United States Government and is therefore a work of the United States Government. In accordance with 17 U.S.C.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Has the magnitude of floods across the USA changed with global CO₂ levels?

Hirsch

Ryberg

2011

Hydrological Sciences Journal

154

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Statistical relationships between annual floods at 200 long-term (85-127 years of record) streamgauges in the coterminous United States and the global mean carbon dioxide concentration (GMCO2) record are explored. The streamgauge locations are limited to those with little or no regulation or urban development. The coterminous US is divided into four large regions and stationary bootstrapping is used to evaluate if the patterns of these statistical associations are significantly different from what would be expected under the null hypothesis that flood magnitudes are independent of GMCO2. In none of the four regions defined in this study is there strong statistical evidence for flood magnitudes increasing with increasing GMCO2. One region, the southwest, showed a statistically significant negative relationship between GMCO2 and flood magnitudes. The statistical methods applied compensate both for the inter-site correlation of flood magnitudes and the shorter-term (up to a few decades) serial correlation of floods.Key words floods; trends; climate change; statistics; carbon dioxide L'intensité des crues aux Etats-Unis a-t-elle changé avec les niveaux mondiaux de CO 2 ?Résumé Nous avons étudié les relations statistiques entre les crues annuelles mesurées en 200 stations de jaugeage à long terme (85 à 127 ans d'enregistrement) de la partie continentale des Etats-Unis et la concentration moyenne globale du dioxyde de carbone (GMCO2). Nous nous sommes limités aux stations de jaugeage peu ou pas influencées par la réglementation ou la croissance urbaine. La partie continentale des Etats-Unis a été divisée en quatre grandes régions et on a utilisé la méthode du bootstrap stationnaire pour tester si les modéles de ces associations statistiques sont sensiblement différents de ce qui serait attendu sous l'hypothése nulle que l'intensité des crues est indépendante de GMCO2. Dans aucune des quatre régions définies dans cette étude n'existent de fortes preuves statistiques que l'intensité des crues augmente avec la croissance de GMCO2. Une région, au Sud-Ouest, présente une relation décroissante statistiquement significative entre GMCO2 et l'intensité des crues. Les méthodes statistiques appliquées compensent la corrélation de l'intensité des crues entre stations et l'autocorrélation à court terme (jusqu'à quelques dizaines d'années) des séries de crues.

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“…Bronstert et al 2002, Brandes et al 2005, Schilling et al 2010. Nevertheless, there is evidence that the rapid warming between the 1970s and 2000s had induced earlier snowmelt and associated peak streamflow in western North America (Dettinger and Cayan 1995, Leith and Whitfield 1998, Whitfield and Cannon 2000, Cayan et al 2001, Regonda et al 2005, Stewart et al 2005 and eastern North America (Hodgkins et al 2003, Hodgkins and Dudley 2006, Burns et al 2007, as well as earlier break-up of river ice in Russian Arctic rivers (Smith 2000), many Canadian rivers (Zhang et al 2001), and rivers in the far northeastern USA (Hodgkins et al 2005). To continue observing those changes, hydrological networks are essential; in a companion paper, Burn et al (2012) report on the use of RHNs for trend studies.…”

Section: Nomentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Zhang et al 2001, Burn and Hag Elnur 2002, Yue et al 2001, Cunderlik and Burn 2004, Hodgkins and Dudley 2006, Khaliq et al 2008, Ehsanzadeh and Adamowski 2009, Burn et al 2010. The trend analysis studies have differed in: the variables examined, the approach used to identify trends, and the scope of the analysis, some studies being national in scope, while others have examined specific regions of Canada.…”

Section: Canadian Reference Networkmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Reference hydrologic networks I. The status and potential future directions of national reference hydrologic networks for detecting trends

Whitfield

Burn

Hannaford

et al. 2012

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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Identifying climate-driven trends in river flows on a global basis is hampered by a lack of long, quality time series data for rivers with relatively undisturbed regimes. This is a global problem compounded by the lack of support for essential long-term monitoring. Experience demonstrates that, with clear strategic objectives, and the support of sponsoring organizations, reference hydrologic networks can constitute an exceptionally valuable data source to effectively identify, quantify and interpret hydrological change-the speed and magnitude of which is expected to a be a primary driver of water management and flood alleviation strategies through the future-and for additional applications. Reference hydrologic networks have been developed in many countries in the past few decades. These collections of streamflow gauging stations, that are maintained and operated with the intention of observing how the hydrology of watersheds responds to variations in climate, are described. The status of networks under development is summarized. We suggest a plan of actions to make more effective use of this collection of networks.Key words reference networks; hydrometric data; hydrological change Les réseaux hydrologiques de référence I. Le statut et les orientations futures possibles des réseaux hydrologiques nationaux de référence pour détecter les tendancesRésumé L'identification de tendances induites par le climat dans le débit des rivières est entravée par le manque de longues séries chronologiques de qualité provenant de rivières dont le régime est peu altéré. Ce problème global est aggravé par le manque de soutien aux initiatives de suivi à long terme. L'expérience démontre qu'avec des objectifs stratégiques clairs ainsi qu'avec le soutien d'organismes de parrainage, les réseaux de référence hydrologiques peuvent s'avérer une précieuse source de données pour l'identification, la quantification et l'interprétation des changements hydrologiques. La vitesse et l'ampleur de ces derniers seront probablement à l'avenir des éléments importants pour la gestion de l'eau et la lutte contre les inondations. C'est pourquoi, d'autres applications étant sans doute à prévoir, des réseaux hydrologiques de référence ont été établis dans plusieurs pays au cours des dernières décennies. On décrit ces ensembles de stations de suivi hydrométrique, maintenues et exploitées dans l'intention d'observer comment l'hydrologie des bassins versants répond aux variations climatiques, ainsi que l'état actuel de développement de ces réseaux. Nous suggérons un plan d'action visant une utilisation plus efficace de ces réseaux.Mots clefs réseaux de référence; données hydrométriques; changement hydrologique

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Changes in the timing of winter–spring streamflows in eastern North America, 1913–2002

Cited by 146 publications

References 15 publications

Defining high-flow seasons using temporal streamflow patterns from a global model

Defining high-flow seasons using temporal streamflow patterns from a global model

Has the magnitude of floods across the USA changed with global CO₂ levels?

Reference hydrologic networks I. The status and potential future directions of national reference hydrologic networks for detecting trends

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Changes in the timing of winter–spring streamflows in eastern North America, 1913–2002

Cited by 146 publications

References 15 publications

Defining high-flow seasons using temporal streamflow patterns from a global model

Defining high-flow seasons using temporal streamflow patterns from a global model

Has the magnitude of floods across the USA changed with global CO2 levels?

Reference hydrologic networks I. The status and potential future directions of national reference hydrologic networks for detecting trends

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About

Has the magnitude of floods across the USA changed with global CO₂ levels?