Changes in Water Resources under Conditions of Climate Warming and Their Impact on Water Inflow to Russian Large Reservoirs

Frolov, A. V.; Georgievskii, V. Yu.

doi:10.3103/s1068373918060067

Cited by 8 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…According to [60], the decrease in the Volga basin's runoff by 12% for the period after the construction of the Volga-Kama cascade of HPPs until the late 1980s relative to the period of natural flow is two-thirds explained by climatic changes and by one-third by anthropogenic factors (evaporation from reservoirs). Despite significant changes in the intra-annual runoff of the Volga basin rivers [61], the last 40 years can be characterized as a period of relatively stable annual runoff in the Volga basin, with alternating periods of high or low flow for several years.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrological and Meteorological Variability in the Volga River Basin under Global Warming by 1.5 and 2 Degrees

Kalugin

2022

Climate

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The idea of the research to assess the impact of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming in the 21st century on the runoff formation in the Volga basin corresponds to the Paris agreement on climate change 2016 with the main goal to keep the global air temperature rise to below 2 °C relative to the pre-industrial level and to take measures to limit warming to 1.5 °C by the end of the 21st century. The purpose of this study was to obtain physically based results of changes in the water regime of the Volga basin rivers under global warming by 1.5 °C and 2 °C relative to pre-industrial values. The physical and mathematical model of runoff generation ECOMAG (ECOlogical Model for Applied Geophysics) was applied in calculations using data from global climate models (GCMs). The estimation of flow anomalies of the Volga River and its major tributaries showed a decrease in annual runoff by 10–11% relative to the period from 1970 to 1999. The largest relative decrease in runoff by 17–20% was noted for the Oka and Upper Volga rivers, while the Kama River had only a 1–5% decrease. The Volga winter runoff increased by 17% and 28% under global warming by 1.5 °C and 2 °C, respectively, and negative runoff anomalies during the spring flood and the summer–autumn period turned out to be in the range of 21 to 23%. Despite the increase in precipitation, the role of evaporation in the water balance of the Volga basin will only increase.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrological and Meteorological Variability in the Volga River Basin under Global Warming by 1.5 and 2 Degrees

Kalugin

2022

Climate

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“…All these indicators can be classified on different time scales according to the regulation capacity of the reservoir. For small reservoirs, we focus on a monthly/daily/sub-daily scale [35,36], and for large reservoirs, we focus on a seasonal/annual scale [37]. In addition to the characteristics of a flood generalized through the hydrological process, it is also related to the spatial patterns [38], geomorphology [39,40], rainfall, and climate [41,42].…”

Section: The Applicability Of the Indicator Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Detection of Flood Characteristics Alteration Induced by the Danjiangkou Reservoir at Han River, China

Zhang

Feng

Zhang

et al. 2021

Water

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As one of the most common natural phenomena, floods can bring both risks and benefits for human beings. They can pose a risk of inundation to a human habitat but can also be utilized as a resource with hydraulic engineering. Improving the knowledge of flood characteristics is the basis and premise of improving water resources management and ecological environmental protection. Presently, the quantitative evaluation of flood characteristics needs to gradually evolve from a single indicator to a systematic one. In this paper, by introducing the concepts of ecohydrology on magnitude, frequency, and duration, a set of flood characteristics indicators evaluation system is constructed based on the hydrological characteristics for the section where Danjiangkou Reservoir is located at the middle reach of the Yangtze in China. The results showed that the Danjiangkou Reservoir has changed the flood characteristics to a great extent both of seasonal or annual floods, and the mean degree of the flood characteristic alteration indicators is about 19%. The changing trend of the flood indicators upstream showed an increasing trend from the 1970s to 2010s, while downstream were divided into two periods by the year of about 1975. The methodological system provided by this paper can effectively evaluate flood characteristics quantitatively, provide technical guidance and a useful reference for flood process analysis, and provide support for flood management and river ecosystem protection.

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“…According to climatic models, an increase in average annual air temperature and an increase in the length of the vegetation period in Russian regions will contribute to the increase in forest burns and the displacement of the middle taiga borders to the north and, consequently, the replacement of conifers with deciduous plantations [27]. It is assumed that in the Amur River basin in modern climatic conditions there will be an increase in the frequency of occurrence of high rain floods and an increase in the likelihood of anomalously low-water seasons, as well as their series [28].Thus, the purpose of this research is to establish the impact and estimate of forest change (felling, burning) in watersheds on streamflow indicators of the Amur River basin. Particular attention is paid Geosciences 2019, 9, 262 3 of 19 to the trend of annual variability of the areas of different type structure of forests, such as coniferous and broadleaf, on a separate watershed.…”

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confidence: 99%

Impact of Deforestation on Streamflow in the Amur River Basin

2019

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In the basin of the Amur River in the Russian Far East, the influence of watershed areas covered by forests on the river basin has a complex nature, and no strict functional dependency has been established yet between these two factors. A study of the Amur River watershed in the current conditions, between 2000 and 2016 (climate, forest coverage, fires, and felling), has been conducted using the ground and satellite observations. The purpose of the study was to identify their influence on the river behaviour (flow, flooding, and levels of water). The study of hydrological regime of rivers was conducted in conjunction with the analysis of the dynamics of forest and burns areas over the synchronised periods of time. A special attention was given to the changing nature of the species composition of the forests (coniferous and deciduous forests separately) from 2000 to 2016, and climatic parameters over thirty years (atmospheric temperature, dew point, precipitation). New facts have been obtained, which provide an explanation of the reasons for predominant prolonged trends in the dynamics of the summer streamflow. In the view of the general tendency toward increased forest coverage combining all species of forest stand, the trend in the dynamics of the coniferous species areas is negative. Therefore, a conclusion can be made, that one of the major factors in the increase of the river flood flow (alongside the atmospheric precipitation), is deforestation of primary coniferous forests on the watershed areas, in contrast with the deciduous forests, where the trend is positive. Practicability of such conclusions can be justified, as different types of forests have different root systems, which mellow the ground and facilitate partial loss of the atmospheric precipitation and its transformation into the groundwater flow. Besides, coniferous forests attract more frequent and intensive fires, more subjected to felling, have longer regeneration period, and also, use larger volumes of ground waters for growing and functioning. Consequently, with their disappearance, an increase in streamflow should be expected. No changes in surface temperature and humidity of the forest cover in the watersheds during 1980-2016 despite global warming. Therefore, annual variability of forested areas of watersheds is greatly influenced by fires and felling. There are reasons to assume, that because of the tendency for decreasing areas of coniferous forests, the conditions contributing to the increases in rivers’ flood flow and flood risks during monsoon and frontal cyclonic rainfalls will remain.

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Changes in Water Resources under Conditions of Climate Warming and Their Impact on Water Inflow to Russian Large Reservoirs

Cited by 8 publications

References 2 publications

Hydrological and Meteorological Variability in the Volga River Basin under Global Warming by 1.5 and 2 Degrees

Hydrological and Meteorological Variability in the Volga River Basin under Global Warming by 1.5 and 2 Degrees

The Detection of Flood Characteristics Alteration Induced by the Danjiangkou Reservoir at Han River, China

Impact of Deforestation on Streamflow in the Amur River Basin

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