Changing black carbon transport to the Arctic from present day to the end of 21st century

Jiao, C.; Flanner, M.

doi:10.1002/2015jd023964

Cited by 26 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…This is due to the short residence time of Arctic shipping BC (1.4 days during summer 2050), limiting transport away from the shipping lanes and onto ice or snow. Deposition of shipping BC over sea ice could be even lower using realistic weather conditions and sea ice for 2050, due to the lower sea ice available for BC to deposit on (Wang & Overland, ) and to the reduced aerosol lifetime from increased precipitation (Jiao & Flanner, ). In our simulations, BC lifetime in the Arctic is mostly controlled by wet removal.…”

Section: Local and Remote Contributions To Surface Concentrations Andmentioning

confidence: 99%

Current and Future Arctic Aerosols and Ozone From Remote Emissions and Emerging Local Sources—Modeled Source Contributions and Radiative Effects

et al. 2018

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The Arctic is influenced by air pollution transported from lower latitudes, and increasingly by local sources such as shipping and resource extraction. Local Arctic emissions could increase significantly in the future due to industrialization in a warming Arctic and further influence Arctic climate. We use the regional model Weather Research and Forecasting, including chemistry, to investigate current (2012) and future (2050) sources of Arctic aerosol and ozone pollution and their radiative impacts, focusing on spring and summer emissions from midlatitude anthropogenic sources, biomass burning, Arctic shipping, and Arctic gas flaring. Results show that remote anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions are likely to remain the main source of Arctic pollution burdens and of black carbon (BC) deposition over snow, and the main contributors to direct aerosol and ozone radiative effects in the Arctic. However, local Arctic flaring emissions are already a major source of BC in northwestern Russia, with a direct radiative effect of ∼25 mW/m2, and Arctic shipping is a strong current source of aerosols and ozone during summer in the Nordic Seas. We find that the direct effect of ozone and aerosols from summertime Arctic shipping is respectively negative (due to frequent temperature inversions) and positive (because of the high surface albedo) in our simulations, two new results. With the development of diversion shipping through the Arctic Ocean in summer 2050, Arctic shipping emissions could become the main source of surface aerosol and ozone pollution at the surface, with strong associated indirect effects of −0.8 W/m2, while flaring would remain an important BC source.

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Section: Local and Remote Contributions To Surface Concentrations Andmentioning

confidence: 99%

Current and Future Arctic Aerosols and Ozone From Remote Emissions and Emerging Local Sources—Modeled Source Contributions and Radiative Effects

et al. 2018

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“…It is particularly important to reduce these uncertainties in the Arctic, where warming is occurring at a faster rate than in other locations (Serreze et al, 2009), and where local aerosol indirect effects can be large (Garrett et al, 2004;Garrett and Zhao, 2006;Lubin and Vogelmann, 2006;Zhao and Garrett, 2015). Understanding aerosol indirect effects is also important because aerosol emissions within and in the vicinity of the Arctic are changing, and perhaps more importantly, the major aerosol removal processes and transport pathways to the Arctic may be changing as well (Jiao and Flanner, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Aerosol indirect effects on the nighttime Arctic Ocean surface from thin, predominantly liquid clouds

et al. 2017

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Abstract. Aerosol indirect effects have potentially large impacts on the Arctic Ocean surface energy budget, but model estimates of regional-scale aerosol indirect effects are highly uncertain and poorly validated by observations. Here we demonstrate a new way to quantitatively estimate aerosol indirect effects on a regional scale from remote sensing observations. In this study, we focus on nighttime, optically thin, predominantly liquid clouds. The method is based on differences in cloud physical and microphysical characteristics in carefully selected clean, average, and aerosol-impacted conditions. The cloud subset of focus covers just ∼ 5 % of cloudy Arctic Ocean regions, warming the Arctic Ocean surface by ∼ 1-1.4 W m −2 regionally during polar night. However, within this cloud subset, aerosol and cloud conditions can be determined with high confidence using CALIPSO and CloudSat data and model output. This cloud subset is generally susceptible to aerosols, with a polar nighttime estimated maximum regionally integrated indirect cooling effect of ∼ −0.11 W m −2 at the Arctic sea ice surface (∼ 8 % of the clean background cloud effect), excluding cloud fraction changes. Aerosol presence is related to reduced precipitation, cloud thickness, and radar reflectivity, and in some cases, an increased likelihood of cloud presence in the liquid phase. These observations are inconsistent with a glaciation indirect effect and are consistent with either a deactivation effect or less-efficient secondary ice formation related to smaller liquid cloud droplets. However, this cloud subset shows large differences in surface and meteorological forcing in shallow and higher-altitude clouds and between sea ice and openocean regions. For example, optically thin, predominantly liquid clouds are much more likely to overlay another cloud over the open ocean, which may reduce aerosol indirect effects on the surface. Also, shallow clouds over open ocean do not appear to respond to aerosols as strongly as clouds over stratified sea ice environments, indicating a larger influence of meteorological forcing over aerosol microphysics in these types of clouds over the rapidly changing Arctic Ocean.

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“…Historically, BC concentrations have been decreasing in the Arctic air (6), but their future fate is unclear. Projections range from increasing concentrations due to a decrease in rainfall (wet scavenging) (7), changes in wind patterns (8), an increase in emissions from wildfires (9), and increased shipping and extraction of natural resources (10) to decreasing concentrations due to more efficient wet scavenging (8). Chemical transport and climate model predictions of BC in the Arctic were, until recently, unsatisfactory and failed to reproduce the observed magnitude and amplitude of BC concentrations (11,12).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Siberian Arctic black carbon sources constrained by model and observation

Winiger

Andersson

Eckhardt

et al. 2017

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

112

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Black carbon (BC) in haze and deposited on snow and ice can have strong effects on the radiative balance of the Arctic. There is a geographic bias in Arctic BC studies toward the Atlantic sector, with lack of observational constraints for the extensive Russian Siberian Arctic, spanning nearly half of the circum-Arctic. Here, 2 y of observations at Tiksi (East Siberian Arctic) establish a strong seasonality in both BC concentrations (8 ng·m −3 to 302 ng·m −3) and dual-isotopeconstrained sources (19 to 73% contribution from biomass burning). Comparisons between observations and a dispersion model, coupled to an anthropogenic emissions inventory and a fire emissions inventory, give mixed results. In the European Arctic, this model has proven to simulate BC concentrations and source contributions well. However, the model is less successful in reproducing BC concentrations and sources for the Russian Arctic. Using a Bayesian approach, we show that, in contrast to earlier studies, contributions from gas flaring (6%), power plants (9%), and open fires (12%) are relatively small, with the major sources instead being domestic (35%) and transport (38%). The observation-based evaluation of reported emissions identifies errors in spatial allocation of BC sources in the inventory and highlights the importance of improving emission distribution and source attribution, to develop reliable mitigation strategies for efficient reduction of BC impact on the Russian Arctic, one of the fastestwarming regions on Earth.Arctic haze | atmospheric transport modeling | emission inventory | carbon isotopes | climate change B lack carbon (BC) is a short-lived climate pollutant, formed during incomplete combustion of biomass and fossil fuels and contributes to the amplified warming in the Arctic (1-4). However, estimates of the magnitude of added radiative forcing to the global atmosphere by BC span a large range (0.2 W·m −2 to 1 W·m −2 ) (1, 5). Due to its short atmospheric lifetime, BC is a potential target for climate change mitigation. Historically, BC concentrations have been decreasing in the Arctic air (6), but their future fate is unclear. Projections range from increasing concentrations due to a decrease in rainfall (wet scavenging) (7), changes in wind patterns (8), an increase in emissions from wildfires (9), and increased shipping and extraction of natural resources (10) to decreasing concentrations due to more efficient wet scavenging (8). Chemical transport and climate model predictions of BC in the Arctic were, until recently, unsatisfactory and failed to reproduce the observed magnitude and amplitude of BC concentrations (11, 12). However, developments in atmospheric transport models show increasing model skills (12), especially for the European Arctic (13). A key component to the model−observation offset is the large uncertainty connected to emission inventories (EIs) (14-16) used by the models. Implications of these model uncertainties include challenges of accurately assessing the radiative forcing of BC (1, 17). Improveme...

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Changing black carbon transport to the Arctic from present day to the end of 21st century

Cited by 26 publications

References 62 publications

Current and Future Arctic Aerosols and Ozone From Remote Emissions and Emerging Local Sources—Modeled Source Contributions and Radiative Effects

Current and Future Arctic Aerosols and Ozone From Remote Emissions and Emerging Local Sources—Modeled Source Contributions and Radiative Effects

Aerosol indirect effects on the nighttime Arctic Ocean surface from thin, predominantly liquid clouds

Siberian Arctic black carbon sources constrained by model and observation

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