Changing Climate Drives Divergent and Nonlinear Shifts in Flowering Phenology across Elevations

Rafferty, Nicole E.; Diez, Jeffrey M.; Bertelsen, C. David

doi:10.1016/j.cub.2019.11.071

Cited by 84 publications

(69 citation statements)

References 66 publications

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“…Menzel et al (2006) and Wang et al (2015) observed greater sensitivity to climate warming in populations from warmer environments, which should reduce synchrony among populations, and therefore potential gene flow, with warming. In contrast, Rafferty et al (2020) observed species‐specific decreases or increases in synchrony of flowering between populations at different elevations. However, these long‐term studies did not allow direct estimation of overlap in flowering time distributions, but rather relied on first or mean flowering dates to describe population flowering phenology, despite weak correlations of these parameters with other attributes of flowering phenology (CaraDonna et al, 2014).…”

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confidence: 90%

Earlier spring reduces potential for gene flow via reduced flowering synchrony across an elevational gradient

Rivest

Lajoie

Watts

et al. 2021

American J of Botany

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One of the best-documented ecological responses to climate warming involves temporal shifts of phenological events. However, we lack an understanding of how phenological responses to climate change vary among populations of the same species. Such variability has the potential to affect flowering synchrony among populations and hence the potential for gene flow. METHODS: To test whether an earlier start of the growing season affects the potential for gene flow among populations, we quantified the distributions of flowering times of two spring-flowering plants (Trillium erectum and Erythronium americanum) over 6 years along an elevational gradient. We developed a novel model-based metric of potential gene flow between pairs of populations to quantify the potential for pollen-mediated gene flow based on flowering phenology. RESULTS: Earlier onset of spring led to greater separation of peak flowering dates across the elevational gradient for both species investigated, but was only associated with a reduction in potential gene flow in T. erectum, not E. americanum. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that climate change could decrease gene flow via phenological separation among populations along climatic gradients. We also provide a novel method for quantifying potential pollen-mediated gene flow using data on flowering phenology, based on a quantitative, more biologically interpretable model than other available metrics.

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confidence: 90%

Earlier spring reduces potential for gene flow via reduced flowering synchrony across an elevational gradient

Rivest

Lajoie

Watts

et al. 2021

American J of Botany

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“…During the last decade, elevational gradients have been increasingly used as a framework for studying environmental impacts on plant and pollinator communities (e.g., Adedoja, Kehinde, & Samways, 2018; Lara‐Romero, Seguí, Pérez‐Delgado, Nogales, & Traveset, 2019; Rafferty et al., 2020). Oftentimes changes in plant–pollinator interactions observed along elevational gradients appear to arise through changes in the respective species pools (Adedoja et al, 2018; Brittain, Kremen, & Klein, 2013; Lara‐Romero et al, 2019; Maglianesi, Blüthgen, Böhning‐Gaese, & Schleuning, 2015; Partida‐Lara et al, 2018; Simanonok & Burkle, 2014), with communities at higher elevations being characterized by less species and more generalized interactions (e.g., Hoiss et al., 2015; Ramos‐Jiliberto et al, 2010).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, neutral and facilitative effects have also been observed (Gilpin, Denham, & Ayre, 2019;Holzschuh, Dormann, Tscharntke, & Steffan-Dewenter, 2011;Lázaro, Lundgren, & Totland, 2009). At present, climate change is shifting not only the phenology of individual species, but also the relative phenology of interacting species (CaraDonna, Iler, & Inouye, 2014;Høye, Post, Schmidt, Trøjelsgaard, & Forchhammer, 2013;Kudo & Cooper, 2019;Rafferty, Diez, & Bertelsen, 2020). Thus, individual species have to simultaneously adjust both to new abiotic conditions and to changes in the species with which they interact (Burkle & Alarcón, 2011;Kaiser-Bunbury, Muff, Memmott, Müller, & Caflisch, 2010;Saavedra, Rohr, Olesen, & Bascompte, 2016).…”

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confidence: 99%

Heated rivalries: Phenological variation modifies competition for pollinators among arctic plants

Tiusanen

Kankaanpää

Schmidt

et al. 2020

Global Change Biology

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When plant species compete for pollinators, climate warming may cause directional change in flowering overlap, thereby shifting the strength of pollinator‐mediated plant–plant interactions. Such shifts are likely accentuated in the rapidly warming Arctic. Targeting a plant community in Northeast Greenland, we asked (a) whether the relative phenology of plants is shifting with spatial variation in temperature, (b) whether local plants compete for pollination, and (c) whether shifts in climatic conditions are likely to affect this competition. We first searched for climatic imprints on relative species phenology along an elevational gradient. We then tested for signs of competition with increasing flower densities: reduced pollinator visits, reduced representation of plant species in pollen loads, and reduced seed production. Finally, we evaluated how climate change may affect this competition. Compared to a dominant species, Dryas integrifolia × octopetala, the relative timing of other species shifted along the environmental gradient, with Silene acaulis and Papaver radicatum flowering earlier toward higher elevation. This shift resulted in larger niche overlap, allowing for an increased potential for competition for pollination. Meanwhile, Dryas emerged as a superior competitor by attracting 97.2% of flower visits. Higher Dryas density resulted in reduced insect visits and less pollen of S. acaulis being carried by pollinators, causing reduced seed set by S. acaulis. Our results show that current variation in climate shifts the timing and flowering overlap between dominant and less‐competitive plant species. With climate warming, such shifts in phenology within trophic levels may ultimately affect interactions between them, changing the strength of competition among plants.

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“…Climate change has induced earlier reproduction among spring-flowering angiosperms [64,66,80,97]. Climate-change mediated selection generally favors earlier flowering, but at differing rates among populations across elevational gradients [69,70] and geographic regions [98]. Several key questions remain unresolved:…”

Section: Reproductive Phenologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Review: Plant Eco-Evolutionary Responses to Climate Change: Emerging Directions

Hamann

Denney

Day

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Contemporary climate change is exposing plant populations to novel combinations of temperatures, drought stress, [CO2] and other abiotic and biotic conditions. These changes are rapidly disrupting the evolutionary dynamics of plants. Despite the multifactorial nature of climate change, most studies typically manipulate only one climatic factor. In this opinion piece, we seek to explore how climate change factors interact with each other and with biotic pressures to alter evolutionary processes. We first explore the ramifications of climate change for key life history stages (germination, growth and reproduction). We then examine how mating system variation influences population persistence under rapid environmental change and propose that mixed mating could be advantageous in future climates. Furthermore, we discuss how spatial and temporal mismatches between plants and their mutualists and antagonists could promote or constrain adaptive responses to climate change. For example, plant-virus interactions vary from highly pathogenic to mildly facilitative, and are partly mediated by temperature, moisture availability and [CO2]. Will host plants exposed to novel, stressful abiotic conditions be more susceptible to viral pathogens? Finally, we propose novel experimental approaches that could illuminate how plants will cope with unprecedented global change, such as resurrection studies combined with experimental evolution, genomics or epigenetics.

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Changing Climate Drives Divergent and Nonlinear Shifts in Flowering Phenology across Elevations

Cited by 84 publications

References 66 publications

Earlier spring reduces potential for gene flow via reduced flowering synchrony across an elevational gradient

Earlier spring reduces potential for gene flow via reduced flowering synchrony across an elevational gradient

Heated rivalries: Phenological variation modifies competition for pollinators among arctic plants

Review: Plant Eco-Evolutionary Responses to Climate Change: Emerging Directions

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