Changing climate requires shift from refugia to sanctuaries for floodplain forests

Abstract

Context Riparian areas are considered to undergo major alterations under changing climate, making floodplain habitats targets for conservation and landscape planning. Protected areas might provide sanctuaries especially for sessile riparian plant species, but these niches are not always persistent over time. Objectives We investigate if plant species of floodplain forests are provided with suitable habitat within currently protected areas and if these refugia persist. A coupled-modelling approach is used to gain spatially explicit information on new areas for sanctuaries. Methods We use species distribution models to predict the niche of 12 Salicion albae and 7 Fraxinion floodplain forest species along rivers in Switzerland, under current, moderate and extreme climate change scenarios up to 80 years to the future (2100). The spread of plant species from current habitat to suitable future habitat is simulated using dispersal vectors and life history traits. Results Salicion albae species are more flexible under both climate change scenarios than Fraxinion species. The main limitation for the spread of species is their dispersal ability, as only a minority of the suitable cells is colonized during the simulation process. The predicted future presence within currently protected areas decreases under both climate change scenarios in the model. Conclusions Current protected floodplains do not provide persistent refugia for the plants studied, but might still be of importance to other organisms. Planning of sanctuaries for riparian plant species and communities need to focus on connectivity along rivers to maintain viable source populations in dynamic riverine landscapes under changing climate.

Pressures on Boreal Riparian Vegetation: A Literature Review

“…Hydropower infrastructure is known to limit dispersal and migration, which enables climate-related shifts in species distributions, that usually take place toward colder, upstream regions (Nilsson et al, 2005). To our knowledge, there is no research that describes the effect that such infrastructure or channelisation has on the upstream dispersal of riparian plants, but Fink and Scheidegger (2021) show that connectivity along rivers is vital for riparian species to be able to disperse to future suitable habitats.…”

Changes in soil properties due to land reclamation and climate change in South Moravian floodplain forest

“…Similarly, Kowalska et al (2020); Tockner et al (2002) and Skiadaresis et al (2019) showed that even small management changes can drastically degrade the natural landscape and modify the natural hydrological regimes of alluvial soils. Other authors confirmed that frequently occurring extreme climatic events are associated with increasing global air temperature by 3-4 °C, which affects floodplain forests and wetlands (Ravenga et al 2000;UNEP-WCMC 2001;Kowalska et al 2020;Fink & Scheidegger 2021). They concluded that periodical flooding is a key natural factor facilitating the sustainability and ecological stability of the floodplain forests.…”

Seeing the floods through the trees: Using adaptive shortwave infrared thresholds to map inundation under wooded wetlands

“…Located at the interface between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, floodplain forests, mangroves, and floodplain wetlands provide a wide array of crucial ecosystem functions and services (Brown et al, 1997; Hughes, 1988; Hughes & Rood, 2003). Floodplain forests are a source of carbon and nutrients to in‐stream ecosystems (Bunn et al, 2003; Robertson et al, 1999); provide a site for carbon sequestration (Sutfin et al, 2016); provide shade and large woody debris to in‐stream ecosystems (Brown et al, 1997; Mac Nally et al, 2001, 2011); stabilize river banks (Abernethy & Rutherfurd, 1998; Brown et al, 1997); and serve as essential habitat for both terrestrial and aquatic species, such as waterbirds and fish (Brown et al, 1997; Hughes, 1988; Mac Nally et al, 2001), and provide refugia during periods of hydrological and climatic extremes (Fink & Scheidegger, 2021; Sedell et al, 1990).…”