“…Most projections of the future migrations of species are derived from bioclimatic modelling (also known as single-species bioclimatic 'envelope' models). These are a special case of ecological niche or distribution models, in which the current native range of species is related to climatic variables so as to enable projections of distributions under various future climate change scenarios (Guisan and Thuiller, 2005, Elith and Leathwick, 2009) and while considerable advances have been made in this field, it has severe technical limitations (Heikkinen et al., 2006, Pearson et al., 2006, Heywood, 2012) and is hampered by the lack of available georeferenced distribution points for many species, failure to take into account various factors other than climate, such as biotic interactions, evolutionary change and dispersal abilities, and using too coarse a scale to be ecologically meaningful for the species being studied (Hampe, 2004; Garden et al., 2015). Ehrlén and Morris (2015) make the point that a disproportionate amount of effort has focused on distribution only, either documenting historical range shifts or predicting future occurrence patterns, and they recommend that simultaneous projections of abundance and distribution across landscapes would be far more useful.…”