Changing How Earth System Modeling is Done to Provide More Useful Information for Decision Making, Science, and Society

Smith, Matthew J.; Palmer, Paul I.; Purves, Drew W.; Vanderwel, Mark C.; Lyutsarev, Vassily; Calderhead, Ben; Joppa, Lucas; Bishop, Christopher M.; Emmott, Stephen

doi:10.1175/bams-d-13-00080.1

Cited by 37 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 73 publications

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“…However, bathymetry is not only poorly resolved (or not resolved at all) in standard‐resolution global models but also is often not even well characterized by bathymetric surveys in many coastal GrIS and AIS regions. A clear challenge for ice sheet‐focussed ocean simulations thus emerges, to sufficiently increase vertical and horizontal ocean resolution around the AIS and GrIS while also retaining sufficient computational resources for ensembles of multidecade to multicentury simulations—a specific example of a pervasive compromise in Earth system modeling (Smith et al, ) that may be overcome by efficient variable‐resolution ocean model meshes (e.g., Ringler et al, ) or physically consistent parameterizations for near‐ice sheet oceanographic processes (e.g., Hallberg, ).…”

Section: Research Directionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Uncertainty in SLR projections from ice sheet/ESMs arises from differences in component models (structural uncertainty), parametric uncertainty (Bindschadler et al, ; Smith et al, ; Palerme et al, ; Yan et al, ), uncertainty in future anthropogenic carbon emissions scenarios (Goelzer et al, ; Vizcaino et al, ), and the presence of underlying ice sheet/Earth system internal variability (Deser et al, ). Understanding and probabilistically quantifying these sources of uncertainty as part of SLR projections derived from ESMs will be critical for informing on‐the‐ground sea level risk assessment and adaption planning efforts.…”

Section: Research Directionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

An Overview of Interactions and Feedbacks Between Ice Sheets and the Earth System

Fyke

Sergienko

Löfverström

et al. 2018

Reviews of Geophysics

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Ice sheet response to forced changes-such as that from anthropogenic climate forcing-is closely regulated by two-way interactions with other components of the Earth system. These interactions encompass the ice sheet response to Earth system forcing, the Earth system response to ice sheet change, and feedbacks resulting from coupled ice sheet/Earth system evolution. Motivated by the impact of Antarctic and Greenland ice sheet change on future sea level rise, here we review the state of knowledge of ice sheet/Earth system interactions and feedbacks. We also describe emerging observation and model-based methods that can improve understanding of ice sheet/Earth system interactions and feedbacks. We particularly focus on the development of Earth system models that incorporate current understanding of Earth system processes, ice dynamics, and ice sheet/Earth system couplings. Such models will be critical tools for projecting future sea level rise from anthropogenically forced ice sheet mass loss. Plain Language Summary Sea level rise from ice sheets depends closely on interactions betweenice sheets and the surrounding Earth system. These interactions determine how forcings to the climate system (such as from anthropogenic climate influences) translate to ice sheet change, which in turn impact the surrounding environment. This set of two-way interactions between ice sheets and the Earth system forms the basis for important, yet poorly understood feedback loops. This review article describes the current state of knowledge of ice sheet/Earth system interactions and feedbacks and describes promising observational techniques for better understanding their behavior. It also highlights challenges and opportunities in modeling these interactions and feedbacks using coupled ice sheet/Earth system models, which will ultimately be used to predict future sea level rise caused by ice sheet loss.

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Section: Research Directionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Research Directionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Overview of Interactions and Feedbacks Between Ice Sheets and the Earth System

Fyke

Sergienko

Löfverström

et al. 2018

Reviews of Geophysics

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“…In an effort to better represent interactions between marine biogeochemistry and climate (Smith et al, 2014), future generations of Earth system models are likely to include more complex ocean biogeochemical models, be it in terms of processes (e.g., Tagliabue and Völker, 2011; or interactions with other biogeochemical cycles (e.g., Gruber and Galloway, 2008) or increased spatial resolution (e.g., Dufour et al, 2013;Lévy et al, 2012) in order to better represent mesoscale biogeochemical dynamics. These developments will go along with an increase in the diversity and complexity of spin-up protocols applied to Earth system models, especially those including an interactive atmospheric CO 2 or interactive nitrogen cycle (e.g., Dunne et al, 2013;Lindsay et al, 2014).…”

Section: Conclusion and Recommendation For Future Intercomparison Exmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inconsistent strategies to spin up models in CMIP5: implications for ocean biogeochemical model performance assessment

et al. 2016

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Abstract. During the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) substantial efforts were made to systematically assess the skill of Earth system models. One goal was to check how realistically representative marine biogeochemical tracer distributions could be reproduced by models. In routine assessments model historical hindcasts were compared with available modern biogeochemical observations. However, these assessments considered neither how close modeled biogeochemical reservoirs were to equilibrium nor the sensitivity of model performance to initial conditions or to the spin-up protocols. Here, we explore how the large diversity in spin-up protocols used for marine biogeochemistry in CMIP5 Earth system models (ESMs) contributes to model-to-model differences in the simulated fields. We take advantage of a 500-year spin-up simulation of IPSL-CM5A-LR to quantify the influence of the spin-up protocol on model ability to reproduce relevant data fields. Amplification of biases in selected biogeochemical fields (O 2 , NO 3 , Alk-DIC) is assessed as a function of spin-up duration. We demonstrate that a relationship between spin-up duration and assessment metrics emerges from our model results and holds when confronted with a larger ensemble of CMIP5 models. This shows that drift has implications for performance assessment in addition to possibly aliasing estimates of climate change impact. Our study suggests that differences in spin-up protocols could explain a substantial part of model disparities, constituting a source of modelto-model uncertainty. This requires more attention in future Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. R. Séférian et al.: Inconsistent strategies to spin up models in CMIP5model intercomparison exercises in order to provide quantitatively more correct ESM results on marine biogeochemistry and carbon cycle feedbacks.

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“…Moreover, a large number of combinations of model configurations should be tested to ensure reliability and performance of individual components and characterize the bias propagation from one component to others . For that purpose, it should be noted that increased modeling complexity does not necessarily result in an improved precision (see Sato et al, 2014;Smith et al, 2014); therefore, a systematic approach is required to test, intercompare and falsify modeling options in the light of validation data available. This will be discussed in more detail in Sect.…”

Section: Outstanding Challenges -Closing the Water Balance And Onlinementioning

confidence: 99%

“…This requires considering model hierarchy and the links between different components and exploring individual and integrated model space with respect to accuracy, identifiability and capability for generalization. This, in turn, can direct where future attempts should be focused to reduce uncertainties further (see also Smith et al, 2014;Michetti and Zampieri, 2014). Guidelines are available for (1) considering multiple working hypotheses for supporting and representing relevant sub-processes and modeling component; (2) constructing different simulations based on various combinations of the considered options and (3) rejecting them if they fail to describe new data, violate their underlying assumptions and/or can be equally described by simpler models (M. P. see Popper, 1959).…”

Section: A Framework To Move Forwardmentioning

confidence: 99%

On inclusion of water resource management in Earth system models – Part 2: Representation of water supply and allocation and opportunities for improved modeling

Nazemi

Wheater

2015

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

115

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Abstract. Human water use has significantly increased during the recent past. Water withdrawals from surface and groundwater sources have altered terrestrial discharge and storage, with large variability in time and space. These withdrawals are driven by sectoral demands for water, but are commonly subject to supply constraints, which determine water allocation. Water supply and allocation, therefore, should be considered together with water demand and appropriately included in Earth system models to address various large-scale effects with or without considering possible climate interactions. In a companion paper, we review the modeling of demand in large-scale models. Here, we review the algorithms developed to represent the elements of water supply and allocation in land surface and global hydrologic models. We note that some potentially important online implications, such as the effects of large reservoirs on land-atmospheric feedbacks, have not yet been fully investigated. Regarding offline implications, we find that there are important elements, such as groundwater availability and withdrawals, and the representation of large reservoirs, which should be improved. We identify major sources of uncertainty in current simulations due to limitations in data support, water allocation algorithms, host large-scale models as well as propagation of various biases across the integrated modeling system. Considering these findings with those highlighted in our companion paper, we note that advancements in computation and coupling techniques as well as improvements in natural and anthropogenic process representation and parameterization in host large-scale models, in conjunction with remote sensing and data assimilation can facilitate inclusion of water resource management at larger scales. Nonetheless, various modeling options should be carefully considered, diagnosed and intercompared. We propose a modular framework to develop integrated models based on multiple hypotheses for data support, water resource management algorithms and host models in a unified uncertainty assessment framework. A key to this development is the availability of regional-scale data for model development, diagnosis and validation. We argue that the time is right for a global initiative, based on regional case studies, to move this agenda forward.

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Changing How Earth System Modeling is Done to Provide More Useful Information for Decision Making, Science, and Society

Abstract: A new mode of development for Earth system models is needed to enable better targeted and more informative projections for both decision makers and scientists.

Cited by 37 publications

References 73 publications

An Overview of Interactions and Feedbacks Between Ice Sheets and the Earth System

An Overview of Interactions and Feedbacks Between Ice Sheets and the Earth System

Inconsistent strategies to spin up models in CMIP5: implications for ocean biogeochemical model performance assessment

On inclusion of water resource management in Earth system models – Part 2: Representation of water supply and allocation and opportunities for improved modeling

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