Changing Nature of North-South Linkages: Stylized Facts and Explanations

Akın, Çiğdem; Köse, M. Ayhan

doi:10.2139/ssrn.1075343

Cited by 43 publications

(51 citation statements)

References 71 publications

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“…During this gradual process, several emerging countries have gained in economic importance and have begun to influence economic developments in other countries (Akin and Kose, 2008). This development has been dominated especially by the growing Chinese economy, supported by its export expansion into and investment from developed countries.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Despite the globalization trend, business cycles in industrial countries and emerging Asian economies have so far remained largely independent of each other. This is referred to as decoupling of business cycles in the recent literature (see Kose et al, 2008, Akin and Kose, 2008, He et al, 2007. Nevertheless, recent developments since the onset of the global financial crisis in the second half of 2008 show that also these countries are not autonomous.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The impact of the global financial crisis on business cycles in Asian emerging economies

Fidrmuc

Korhonen

2010

Journal of Asian Economics

149

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. We analyze the transmission of global financial crisis to business cycles in China and India. The pattern of business cycles in emerging Asian economies generally displays a low degree of synchronization with the OECD countries, which is consistent with the decoupling hypothesis. By contrast, however, the current financial crisis has had a significant effect on economic developments in emerging Asian economies. Applying dynamic correlations, we find wide differences for different frequencies of cyclical development. More specifically, at business cycle frequencies, dynamic correlations are typically low or negative, but they are also influenced most by the global financial crisis. Finally, we find a significant link between trade ties and dynamic correlations of GDP growth rates in emerging Asian countries and OECD countries. Terms of use: Documents inJEL Code: E32, F15, F41.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of the global financial crisis on business cycles in Asian emerging economies

Fidrmuc

Korhonen

2010

Journal of Asian Economics

149

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Lately, however, the decoupling thesis has challenged the predominant belief that the world economy is unilaterally dependent on Western economies (the North) and that growth in developing countries (the South) is a consequence of spillovers that operate asymmetrically and unidirectional from the North to the South. Although it would appear that business cycles should get more synchronized in an interdependent 'flat' world, a recent study from International Monetary Fund (IMF) researchers suggests, quite paradoxically, that globalization and decoupling can occur simultaneously (Akin and Kose, 2008). While various reasons-such as increase in productivity, domestic spending and demand, South-South trade flows, and overall diversification and industrialization of the export base-can partially explain this structural change, recent empirical findings (Alnuaimi, George, and Puranam 2011;Ernst, 2006) suggest that the story behind the decoupling thesis is predominantly related to a shift in the global innovation system's center of gravity to the emerging countries.…”

Section: Economic Decoupling and Reverse Globalizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Moving forward by going in reverse: emerging trends in global innovation and knowledge strategies

Sarkar

2011

Global Strategy Journal

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“…diversification of their industrial (and trade) bases. This has been accompanied by a greater degree of sectoral similarity across countries within each group (see Akin and Kose, 2008). With these changes, intra-group spillovers have begun to contribute more to concurrent cyclical fluctuations than common disturbances.…”

Section: V1 Convergence or Decoupling?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?

Köse¹,

Otrok²,

Prasad³

2008

Self Cite

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This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period . We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups --industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates --output, consumption, and investment --into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are common to all variables and all countries within each group of countries; (iii) country factors, which are common across all aggregates in a given country; and (iv) idiosyncratic factors specific to each time series. Our main result is that, during the period of globalization , there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and among the group of emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there has been a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. In other words, there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them.

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Changing Nature of North-South Linkages: Stylized Facts and Explanations

Cited by 43 publications

References 71 publications

The impact of the global financial crisis on business cycles in Asian emerging economies

The impact of the global financial crisis on business cycles in Asian emerging economies

Moving forward by going in reverse: emerging trends in global innovation and knowledge strategies

Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?

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