Changing patterns of communicable disease in England and Wales: part II-Disappearing and declining diseases.

Galbraith, N. S.; Forbes, P; Mayon-White, Richard

doi:10.1136/bmj.281.6238.489

Cited by 14 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…Since the early 1950s, tuberculosis (TB) rates in high-income countries have decreased rapidly. In 1980, treatment was available and effective, and it seemed reasonable to include TB in the list of "disappearing and declining diseases" in Britain [2]. The authors were naturally unaware of the fact that the AIDS pandemic was already making hundreds of thousands of people worldwide susceptible to a disease previously considered to be a remnant of the 19th century [3].…”

Section: Pathogen-pathogen Interactions and Other Unknownsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling in infectious diseases: between haphazard and hazard

Neuberger

NIzar

Raoult

2013

Clinical Microbiology and Infection

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Modelling of infectious diseases is difficult, if not impossible. No epidemic has ever been truly predicted, rather than being merely noticed when it was already ongoing. Modelling the future course of an epidemic is similarly tenuous, as exemplified by ominous predictions during the last influenza pandemic leading to exaggerated national responses. The continuous evolution of microorganisms, the introduction of new pathogens into the human population and the interactions of a specific pathogen with the environment, vectors, intermediate hosts, reservoir animals and other microorganisms are far too complex to be predictable. Our environment is changing at an unprecedented rate, and human-related factors, which are essential components of any epidemic prediction model, are difficult to foresee in our increasingly dynamic societies. Any epidemiological model is, by definition, an abstraction of the real world, and fundamental assumptions and simplifications are therefore required. Indicator-based surveillance methods and, more recently, Internet biosurveillance systems can detect and monitor outbreaks of infections more rapidly and accurately than ever before. As the interactions between microorganisms, humans and the environment are too numerous and unexpected to be accurately represented in a mathematical model, we argue that prediction and model-based management of epidemics in their early phase are quite unlikely to become the norm.

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Section: Pathogen-pathogen Interactions and Other Unknownsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling in infectious diseases: between haphazard and hazard

Neuberger

NIzar

Raoult

2013

Clinical Microbiology and Infection

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“…There are too many examples of the spread of infectious diseases, such as poliomyelitis, in unimmunised communities to be complacent (Galbraith, 1980;MacGregor et al, 1981). Immunisation against infectious diseases is one of the very few, highly effective, truly preventive measures known and available.…”

Section: The Health Of Children Under Fivementioning

confidence: 99%

Health and Health Care Among Travellers

Pahl¹,

Vaile²

1988

J. Soc. Pol.

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Travellers, or Gypsies, constitute a minority group with its own culture and traditions for whom access to health care can pose problems. A study of Traveller women and children showed that the sites where they lived were often lacking in facilities and provided a poor environment in terms of cleanliness and safety. Perinatal mortality was above average, and was especially high on sites with inadequate facilities and among the more mobile families. Immunisation and preventive care of children were both inadequate, especially among the more mobile. There continues to be a need for more, and better, permanent sites for Travellers. Other responses include allowing Traveller families to carry their own medical records, providing mobile clinics for Gypsy sites, and appointing specialist health visitors to ensure that Travellers get the health care to which they are entitled.Over the past few years there has been growing recognition that members of ethnic and cultural minorities may face particular barriers in getting access to appropriate health and welfare services. Local initiatives aimed at improving access have focused particularly on the needs of black and Asian communities (see Dowling, 1983). However, relatively little attention has been so far been given to the problems faced by Britain's oldest ethnic minority, the Gypsies, or Travellers, as they prefer to be known.The aims of the study described in this article were, firstly, to document the health problems of Traveller women and children and, secondly, to make recommendations for improvements in health and welfare services for this group of the population. Kent has a substantial population of Travellers, and so provided an opportunity for carrying out a study which would have relevance wherever Travellers share community

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“…In the United Kingdom MRSA was found only sporadically in the mid to late 1970s and serious infections were rarely observed. A report from the Communicable Disease Surveillance Center, Public Health Laboratory, London, reviewing the period of [1960][1961][1962][1963][1964][1965][1966][1967][1968][1969][1970][1971][1972][1973][1974][1975][1976][1977][1978][1979], stated that 'staphylococcal resistance to cloxacillin and gentamicin is very rare' [7]. In other European countries, MRSA appeared as a clinical problem at an earlier stage.…”

Section: Emergence Of Mrsamentioning

confidence: 99%