Changing Patterns of Uncontested Seats in Southern State Legislative Elections, 1984–2012*

Myers, Adam S.

doi:10.1111/ssqu.12409

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…Yet the party system in the South has involved in significant ways in recent decades. Myers (2018) shows that there is a notable partisan tinge to where seats are uncontested in southern state legislatures. Over the past two decades, Republican-leaning districts have seen declines in the uncontested rate but Democratic-leaning districts have seen increases.…”

Section: Hypothesesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Explaining Uncontested Seats in Congress and State Legislatures

Burden

Snyder

2020

American Politics Research

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A fundamental requirement of democracy is the existence of contested elections. Our study documents and explains trends in uncontested seats in the U.S. Congress and state legislatures over time. We uncover a striking inconsistency in the health of elections: the frequency of uncontested seats in Congress has declined while the frequency of uncontested seats in state legislatures has actually increased. To explore these divergent trends, we consider factors that are common to both Congress and state legislatures such as the redistricting cycle but also variables that are unique to the state level. Our analysis points to the relative “flippability” of Congress compared to many state legislatures as a factor behind diverging levels of contestation. While many state legislatures have become bastions for dominant parties, congressional districts in those same states are often nonetheless viewed as enticing targets because they contribute to control of the federal government.

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Section: Hypothesesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Explaining Uncontested Seats in Congress and State Legislatures

Burden

Snyder

2020

American Politics Research

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“…But whereas in the 1980s would-be Republican candidacies were deterred because of the Democratic incumbency advantage, in more recent elections there has been a nationalization pattern so that GOP candidate emergence is now strongly tied to the presidential vote cast in the state legislative district. The South remains different from the rest of the United States, but now it is due to the large decline in Democratic candidacies (Forgette, Garner, and Winkle 2012) tied to the high number of presidentially Republican state legislative districts (Myers 2018).…”

Section: Legislative Party Switching and Party Realignment In The Southmentioning

confidence: 99%

Short-Term Pain for Long-Term Gain: The Logic of Legislative Party Switching in the Contemporary American South

Yoshinaka

McKee

2019

State Politics Policy Q.

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One of the most important career decisions for a legislator is the decision to switch parties, and it raises a theoretical puzzle: it carries significant risk, yet sometimes legislators do change partisan affiliation. We elucidate this puzzle with the first-ever systematic comparison of the entire careers of state legislative switchers and non-switchers in the American South, where the high prevalence of party switching coincided with rapid realignment toward the Republican Party. Our analysis is the first to evaluate all post-switch career decisions (retiring, running for reelection, running for higher office) simultaneously, and it is the broadest in its scope with two full decades of career data. We demonstrate that converts to the Grand Old Party (GOP) pay a reelection cost. However, they are less likely to retire than Democratic non-switchers and more likely to seek higher office. This latter finding is especially strong during the earlier part of our study—when the Republican bench in the South was not as deep and competition for the party label was not as intense. Our findings suggest that political ambition motivates legislators to trade short-term electoral costs for a more promising long-term electoral career with the ascendant party.

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Explaining Increased Contestation in the 2018 State Legislative Elections

Myers

2020

APSC

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State legislative elections in the United States have long exhibited relatively low contestation rates. Between 2002 and 2016, for example, the percentage of state legislative seats fully contested by the two major parties in even-year elections never reached more than 63.6% and was as low as 54.6%.1 Indeed, some states always see fewer than one third of their legislative seats contested. It is not surprising that local media around the country routinely lament the low level of competition in statehouse races.2

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Changing Patterns of Uncontested Seats in Southern State Legislative Elections, 1984–2012*

Cited by 4 publications

References 32 publications

Explaining Uncontested Seats in Congress and State Legislatures

Explaining Uncontested Seats in Congress and State Legislatures

Short-Term Pain for Long-Term Gain: The Logic of Legislative Party Switching in the Contemporary American South

Explaining Increased Contestation in the 2018 State Legislative Elections

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