Changing temperatures influence suitability for modeled mountain pine beetle (<i>Dendroctonus ponderosae</i>) outbreaks in the western United States

Hicke, Jeffrey A.; Logan, Jesse A.; Powell, James A.; Ojima, Dennis S.

doi:10.1029/2005jg000101

Cited by 164 publications

(142 citation statements)

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“…The model was successfully evaluated in a region in central Idaho that experienced a rapid increase in mountain pine beetle populations in the late 1990s (Logan and Powell, 2004). Long-term changes at coarse spatial resolution were evaluated with this model across the West by Hicke et al (2006).…”

Section: Adaptive Seasonality: Temperature Effects On the Lifecycle Omentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We also estimated future (2070-2099) temperature suitability for two future climate scenarios (ECHAM5 and HADCM, A1B SRES scenario). Hourly temperatures were estimated from daily minimum and maximum temperatures by simulating a sawtooth pattern of hourly temperatures (Hicke et al, 2006).…”

Section: Adaptive Seasonality: Temperature Effects On the Lifecycle Omentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Climate change, in particular warming and drought, affects bark beetle life stage development rates, winter mortality, and host tree susceptibility (Logan and Powell, 2001;Carroll et al, 2004;Oneil, 2006). Across the West, stand structural conditions make host species susceptible to beetle attack (Hicke and Jenkins, 2008), future climate change is predicted to reduce the area of climate suitability for the MPB at low elevations, and increase climate suitability at higher elevations (Hicke et al, 2006).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Forest ecosystems, disturbance, and climatic change in Washington State, USA

et al. 2010

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C limatic change is likely to affect Pacific Northwest (PNW) forests in several important ways. In this paper, we address the role of climate in four forest ecosystem processes and project the effects of future climatic change on these processes. First, we analyze how climate affects Douglas-fir growth across the region to understand potential changes in future growth. In areas where Douglas-fir is not water-limited, future growth will continue to vary with interannual climate variability, but in places where Douglas-fir is water-limited, growth is likely to decline due to projected increase in summer potential evapotranspiration. Second, we use existing analyses of climatic controls on future potential tree species ranges to highlight areas where species turnover may be greatest. By the mid 21 st century, some areas of the interior Columbia Basin and eastern Cascades are likely to have climates poorly suited to pine species that are susceptible to mountain pine beetle, and if these pines are climatically stressed, they may be more vulnerable to pine beetle attack. Climatic suitability for Douglas-fir is also likely to change, with substantial decreases in climatically suitable area in the Puget Trough and the Okanogan Highlands. Third, using regression approaches, we examine the relationships between climate and the area burned by fire in the PNW and in eight Washington ecosystems and project future area burned in response to changing climate. Area burned is significantly related to both temperature and precipitation in summer, but more physiologically relevant variables, such as water balance deficit, perform as well or better in models. Regional area burned is likely to double or even triple by the end of the 2040s, although Washington ecosystems have different sensitivities to climate and thus different responses to climatic change. Fourth, we evaluate the influence of climatic change on mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreaks by quantifying both host-tree vulnerability and pine beetle adaptive seasonality. Host-tree vulnerability is closely related to vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and future projections support the hypothesis that summer VPD will increase over a significant portion of the range of host tree species. Due to the increased host 255vulnerability, MPB populations are expected to become more viable at higher elevations leading to increased incidence of MPB outbreaks. The increased rates of disturbance by fire and mountain pine beetle are likely to be more significant agents of changes in forest structure and composition in the 21st century than species turnover or declines in productivity. This suggests that understanding future disturbance regimes is critical for successful adaptation to climate change.

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Section: Adaptive Seasonality: Temperature Effects On the Lifecycle Omentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Adaptive Seasonality: Temperature Effects On the Lifecycle Omentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Forest ecosystems, disturbance, and climatic change in Washington State, USA

et al. 2010

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“…Such outbreaks, however, are actually intermittent exceptions to more stable long-term dynamics, as populations are typically constrained below critical thresholds for lengthy periods (6). Cool temperatures, tree-defense physiology, and natural enemies are foremost among the factors limiting population growth (9)(10)(11)(12).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The frequency and severity of outbreaks have increased dramatically as rising temperatures have allowed greater winter survival and accelerated development from semivoltine to univoltine life histories (2,10,11,13). Historically, mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), the foremost tree-killer, primarily occupied lower-elevation lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) habitat of the United States and Canadian Rocky Mountains (14).…”

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confidence: 99%

Temperature-driven range expansion of an irruptive insect heightened by weakly coevolved plant defenses

Raffa¹,

Powell²,

Townsend

2012

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

187

202

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Warming climate has increased access of native bark beetles to high-elevation pines that historically received only intermittent exposure to these tree-killing herbivores. Here we show that a dominant, relatively naïve, high-elevation species, whitebark pine, has inferior defenses against mountain pine beetle compared with its historical lower-elevation host, lodgepole pine. Lodgepole pines respond by exuding more resin and accumulating higher concentrations of toxic monoterpenes than whitebark pine, where they co-occur. Furthermore, the chemical composition of whitebark pine appears less able to inhibit the pheromonal communication beetles use to jointly overcome tree defenses. Despite whitebark pine's inferior defenses, beetles were more likely to attack their historical host in mixed stands. This finding suggests there has been insufficient sustained contact for beetles to alter their complex behavioral mechanisms driving host preference. In no-choice assays, however, beetles readily entered and tunneled in both hosts equally, and in stands containing less lodgepole pine, attacks on whitebark pines increased. High-elevation trees in pure stands may thus be particularly vulnerable to temperature-driven range expansions. Predators and competitors were more attracted to volatiles from herbivores attacking their historical host, further increasing risk in less coevolved systems. Our results suggest cold temperatures provided a sufficient barrier against herbivores for high-elevation trees to allocate resources to other physiological processes besides defense. Changing climate may reduce the viability of that evolutionary strategy, and the life histories of high-elevation trees seem unlikely to foster rapid counter adaptation. Consequences extend from reduced food supplies for endangered grizzly bears to altered landscape and hydrological processes.climate change | coevolution | disturbance | plant-insect interactions | forest insects

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Savannas of North America

Beckage

2019

Savanna Woody Plants and Large Herbivores

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Changing temperatures influence suitability for modeled mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreaks in the western United States

Cited by 164 publications

References 33 publications

Forest ecosystems, disturbance, and climatic change in Washington State, USA

Forest ecosystems, disturbance, and climatic change in Washington State, USA

Temperature-driven range expansion of an irruptive insect heightened by weakly coevolved plant defenses

Savannas of North America

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