Chapter 43 Assessment of NE Greenland: prototype for development of Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal methodology

Abstract

Geological features of NE Greenland suggest large petroleum potential, as well as high uncertainty and risk. The area was the prototype for development of methodology used in the US Geological Survey (USGS) Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal (CARA), and was the first area evaluated. In collaboration with the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), eight 'assessment units' (AU) were defined, six of which were probabilistically assessed. The most prospective areas are offshore in the Danmarkshavn Basin. This study supersedes a previous USGS assessment, from which it differs in several important respects: oil estimates are reduced and natural gas estimates are increased to reflect revised understanding of offshore geology. Despite the reduced estimates, the CARA indicates that NE Greenland may be an important future petroleum province.

Chapter 8 US Geological Survey Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal (CARA): introduction and summary of organization and methods

“…Gautier et al (2011b) summarize the geological framework and assessment strategy used by the CARA in northeastern Greenland, the province chosen as the pilot study for the Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal. In his paper on western Greenland, Baffin Bay and eastern Canada, Schenk (2011a) presents the basic geological model for assessment of an area with high potential and strong industry interest, but also relatively sparse subsurface data and great risk.…”

“…The rock probability of 0.9 was intended to indicate a strong belief that some combination of structures and reservoir intervals would be functional in the AU, Likewise, a timing probability of 0.9 indicated that, while nothing is certain, the CARA expectation was that at least some undiscovered hydrocarbon accumulations would have formed and would still be present in North Danmarkshavn Basin. Some of the geological rationale used to evaluate risks and probabilities of AUs in northeastern Greenland, including the NDSB, are further discussed in this volume by Gautier et al (2011b). The product of these three factors yielded an overall value of 0.648, rounded on the form to 0.65.…”

“…After the assessment meeting, the program was run for 50 000 iterations to give an official set of estimates for each AU. In this volume, Gautier et al (2011b) discuss the USGS assessment of northeastern Greenland in more detail.…”

Chapter 42 Greenland petroleum exploration: history, breakthroughs in understanding and future challenges

“…The outcome of this exercise was a distribution that has much more confidence from industry and GEUS: significantly lower liquid resources (mean 17 10 9 barrels of oil), slightly higher gas resources (mean 87 10 12 cubic feet), lower total undiscovered resources (mean 31 10 9 barrels of oil equivalent). The main potential seems to be in the Danmarkshavn Basin (see Gautier 2007;Gautier et al 2009Gautier et al , 2011.…”

“…The strikeslip-dominated basin may have many of the same reservoir-and source rocks as the northern part of the Danmarkshavn Basin (see Gautier et al 2011). The compression features do, however, give a higher petroleum exploration risk than the basins further south.…”