Chapter Nine Formal Scenario Development for Environmental Impact Assessment Studies

Liu, Y.; Mahmoud, M.; Hartmann, Holly C.; Stewart, Steve; Wagener, Thorsten; Semmens, Darius J.; Stewart, Richard C.; Gupta, H. V.; Dominguez, Damian; Hulse, David; Letcher, Rebecca; Rashleigh, Brenda; Smith, Courtland L.; Street, Roger; Ticehurst, Jenifer Lyn; Twery, Mark J.; Delden, Hedwig van; White, Denis

doi:10.1016/s1574-101x(08)00609-1

Cited by 12 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…The scenarios were developed through an iterative process of adapting archetypal drivers of global change (Hunt et al 2012) to the perspectives, social processes, and environmental conditions of the Yahara watershed (Liu et al 2008), within the constraints created by coupling the storylines with biophysical models. The process is diagrammed in Fig.…”

Section: Process For Scenario Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Plausible futures of a social-ecological system: Yahara watershed, Wisconsin, USA

Carpenter¹,

Booth²,

Gillon³

et al. 2015

E&S

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ABSTRACT. Agricultural watersheds are affected by changes in climate, land use, agricultural practices, and human demand for energy, food, and water resources. In this context, we analyzed the agricultural, urbanizing Yahara watershed (size: 1345 km², population: 372,000) to assess its responses to multiple changing drivers. We measured recent trends in land use/cover and water quality of the watershed, spatial patterns of 10 ecosystem services, and spatial patterns and nestedness of governance. We developed scenarios for the future of the Yahara watershed by integrating trends and events from the global scenarios literature, perspectives of stakeholders, and models of biophysical drivers and ecosystem services. Four qualitative scenarios were created to explore plausible trajectories to the year 2070 in the watershed's social-ecological system under different regimes: no action on environmental trends, accelerated technological development, strong intervention by government, and shifting values toward sustainability. Quantitative time-series for 2010-2070 were developed for weather and land use/cover during each scenario as inputs to model changes in ecosystem services. Ultimately, our goal is to understand how changes in the social-ecological system of the Yahara watershed, including management of land and water resources, can build or impair resilience to shifting drivers, including climate.

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Section: Process For Scenario Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Plausible futures of a social-ecological system: Yahara watershed, Wisconsin, USA

Carpenter¹,

Booth²,

Gillon³

et al. 2015

E&S

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“…These synthetic scenarios need to be used as rough estimates of climate change. Studies have shown that scenario funnels illustrate the variety of long-term consequences of short-term decisions, using widening perspectives and illuminating key issues that may otherwise be missed (Kosow and Gaßner, 2008;Liu et al, 2008;Mahmoud et al, 2009;Timpe and Scheepers, 2003).…”

Section: Generating Synthetic Scenarios From Scenario Funnelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Synthetic Scenarios from CMIP5 Model Simulations for Climate Change Impact Assessments in Managed Ecosystems and Water Resources: Case Study in South Asian Countries

2016

Trans. ASABE

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“…A participatory approach can require a significant investment of time and money to truly engage all stakeholders, but the benefits can include (1) improved communication among all participants, (2) scenarios that are more likely to be politically feasible, (3) a richer diversity of perspectives for consideration by decision makers, (4) a process that is viewed as more credible and transparent, and (5) an increased likelihood of decisions that adequately consider and balance tradeoffs among the demands of different human populations and between human and ecological needs (Liu et al 2008b, Jacobs et al 2010, Metcalf et al 2010.…”

Section: Scenario Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To provide guidance on the use of formal scenario analysis in environmental studies and decision making, Liu et al (2008b) and Mahmoud et al (2009) proposed a framework outlining an iterative process for scenario development (Fig. 2).…”

Section: Scenario Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the first phase of this framework, scenario definition, researchers typically collaborate with experts, decision makers, and stakeholders to (1) identify the key factors driving the system under study and determine which of these driving forces to evaluate in the scenario analysis; (2) decide which environmental endpoints to assess (e.g., water quality, water quantity, and habitat); and (3) identify the characteristics that differentiate the scenarios, such as alternative land management options and the spatial and temporal scales of interest (Liu et al 2008b;Fig. 2).…”

Section: Scenario Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

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Hydrologic futures: using scenario analysis to evaluate impacts of forecasted land use change on hydrologic services

Kepner

Ramsey

Brown³

et al. 2012

Ecosphere

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Abstract. Land cover and land use changes can substantially alter hydrologic ecosystem services.Water availability and quality can change with modifications to the type or amount of surface vegetation, the permeability of soil and other surfaces, and the introduction of contaminants through human activities. Efforts to understand and predict the effects of land use decisions on hydrologic services-and to use this information in decision making-are challenged by the complexities of ecosystem functioning and by the need to translate scientific information into a form that decision makers can use. Hydrologic modeling coupled with scenario analysis can (1) elucidate hydrologic responses to anticipated changes in land use and (2) improve the utility of scientific information for decision making in a manner that facilitates stakeholder involvement. Using a combination of general concepts and concrete examples, this paper summarizes hydrologic consequences of land use changes and describes the use of modeling and scenario analysis to inform decision making. Two case studies integrate the concepts raised in the paper and illustrate how an approach employing modeling and scenario analysis offers a potentially powerful way to link research on hydrologic services with decision making.

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Chapter Nine Formal Scenario Development for Environmental Impact Assessment Studies

Cited by 12 publications

References 21 publications

Plausible futures of a social-ecological system: Yahara watershed, Wisconsin, USA

Plausible futures of a social-ecological system: Yahara watershed, Wisconsin, USA

Synthetic Scenarios from CMIP5 Model Simulations for Climate Change Impact Assessments in Managed Ecosystems and Water Resources: Case Study in South Asian Countries

Hydrologic futures: using scenario analysis to evaluate impacts of forecasted land use change on hydrologic services

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