Characteristic changes in the long and short spells of different rain intensities in India

Dash, S. K.; Nair, Archana; Kulkarni, Makarand A.; Mohanty, U. C.

doi:10.1007/s00704-011-0416-x

Cited by 72 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…However, it should be mentioned that Goswami et al (2010), in their analysis of daily rainfall data from 15 stations between April and October in NE India, for the period from 1975 to 2006, found a decreasing trend of extreme events with more than 150 mm rainfall per day and that this exceeded the 99th percentile. This is in contrast to a detected increasing trend of such events in central India (Goswami et al 2006) and in the whole of India (Dash et al 2009;Dash et al 2011).…”

Section: Introductioncontrasting

confidence: 93%

“…They found that the frequency of heavy rain days and moderate rain days increased and decreased, respectively (significant at 5 % level), in northeast India in both the monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. Further study of changes in the long and short spells of different rain intensities shows that short spells of heavyintensity rain have risen and those of moderate intensity have decreased during the summer monsoon over northeast India in the past 50 years (Dash et al 2011). However, it should be mentioned that Goswami et al (2010), in their analysis of daily rainfall data from 15 stations between April and October in NE India, for the period from 1975 to 2006, found a decreasing trend of extreme events with more than 150 mm rainfall per day and that this exceeded the 99th percentile.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Trend analysis for the annual and seasonal rainfall series thus shows these to be very stable, with no change in the rainfall in NE India during at least the past 150 years. These stable conditions are seen not only on a regional scale but also at subdivision and station levels (Prokop and Walanus 2003;Dash et al 2012;Jain et al 2013). Dash et al (2009), using highresolution daily gridded rainfall data for the period , examined the changes in the number of rain events of different durations and intensities in the whole of India as well as over its homogeneous regions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Variation in the orographic extreme rain events over the Meghalaya Hills in northeast India in the two halves of the twentieth century

Prokop

Walanus

2014

Theor Appl Climatol

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The daily rainfall data for the twentieth century, from three stations across the region, constitute the basis for statistical analysis. However, the low signal-to-noise ratio makes it difficult to find any significant departure from the simplest null hypothesis of the stability of the rain record at individual stations in northeast India. Only the coarsest possible view, i.e. comparing the two halves of the century, provided strongly significant results in the numbers of days with extreme rain. Using a more general approach, the number of Fourier transform extreme amplitudes also differed significantly. Increasingly heavy events during the summer monsoon season, and partly in the pre-and post-monsoon seasons, are offset by a weakening in the winter monsoon season, so that the annual mean rainfall does not show a significant trend over the Meghalaya Hills. Apart from a greater number of years with noticeable extreme rainfall events in the second half of the twentieth century, we can also observe a more pronounced quasi-periodicity of 10-20 and 30-60 days during the same period. The detection of the latter periodicity indicates that the Madden-Julian oscillation plays an important role in the formation of extreme rainfall events over the Meghalaya Hills during extreme monsoon years.

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Section: Introductioncontrasting

confidence: 93%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Variation in the orographic extreme rain events over the Meghalaya Hills in northeast India in the two halves of the twentieth century

Prokop

Walanus

2014

Theor Appl Climatol

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“…Dash et al . [, ] investigated the pattern of rainfall over India and found that frequencies of light precipitation days have significantly decreased in the last half century. They also pointed out that prolonged dry spells showed an increasing trend.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in precipitation pattern and risk of drought over India in the context of global warming

Mishra

Liu

2014

J. Geophys. Res. Atmos.

108

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Precipitation pattern has changed over many regions in recent decades. There are evidences of increased heavy precipitation and decreased light precipitation in widespread parts of the globe due to global warming. Many studies over Indian region focus on heavy precipitation and risk of floods. But few works discuss the changes in light precipitation and risk of droughts. In this study, changes in total dry days, prolonged dry spells, light precipitation, and risk of drought as indicated by Modified Palmer Index (MPI) over India during six decades are examined quantitatively in the context of global warming. It is found that there are increases of 49% ± 21% and 33% ± 17% in prolonged dry spells and total dry days, respectively, over India for each degree Kelvin (K) increase in global mean temperature. There is an increase of 51% ± 24% K À1 in drought index MPI (<= À 2.0). There is also a reduction of 31 ± 14% K À1 in light precipitation days over India. These changes are more severe over northeastern and western part of India. Increases in prolonged dry spells, total dry days, and decreases in light precipitation relate well with the increases in drought index MPI (<= À 2.0). These results suggest that there is an increased risk of drought due to increased prolonged dry spells, total dry days, and decreased light precipitation days over India as a result of global warming.

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“…Their results show that precipitation change projections by current global models need to be considered cautiously and the use of nested regional models adds uncertainty which needs to be properly characterized. Dash et al (2009) used gridded rainfall dataset prepared by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for the period 1951-2004 to study the possible changes in the frequency of rain events in India with respect to their duration and intensity in a daily basis. They classified the duration of rainfall as short, long, dry or prolonged dry spell and intensity in terms of low, moderate or heavy.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temperature and precipitation changes in the north-east India and their future projections

Dash

Sharma

Pattnayak

et al. 2012

Global and Planetary Change

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Characteristic changes in the long and short spells of different rain intensities in India

Cited by 72 publications

References 8 publications

Variation in the orographic extreme rain events over the Meghalaya Hills in northeast India in the two halves of the twentieth century

Variation in the orographic extreme rain events over the Meghalaya Hills in northeast India in the two halves of the twentieth century

Changes in precipitation pattern and risk of drought over India in the context of global warming

Temperature and precipitation changes in the north-east India and their future projections

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