Background
To assess whether presence of structural osteoarthritis features over up to 4 years prior incident radiographic (ROA) increases risk for ROA in a nested, case-control design.
Methods
355 knees from the Osteoarthritis Initiative cohort that developed ROA before the 48-month visit were studied. They were matched one-to-one by gender, age and radiographic status with a control knee. MR images were read for bone marrow lesions (BMLs), cartilage, meniscus (including tears and extrusion), Hoffa- and effusion-synovitis. Conditional logistic regression was applied to assess risk of ROA in regard to presence of BMLs (≥2), cartilage lesions (≥1.1), meniscal damage (any) and extrusion (≥3 mm), Hoffa- and effusion-synovitis (any). Time points were defined as P0 = incident ROA visit; P-1 = visit prior reported incidence; P-2 = two visits prior etc.
Results
The presence of Hoffa-synovitis (OR 1.76, 95% CI [1.18,2.64]), effusion-synovitis (OR 1.81, 95% CI [1.18,2.78]), and medial meniscal damage (OR 1.83 95% CI [1.17,2.89]) at P-2 predicted ROA incidence. At P-1, all features but meniscal extrusion predicted ROA, with highest odds for medial BMLs (OR 6.50 95% CI [2.27,18.62]) and effusion-synovitis (OR 2.50 95% CI [1.76,3.54]). The findings at P-3 and P-4 did not reach statistical significance.
Conclusion
Presence of specific structural features of MRI-detected joint damage two years prior incident ROA increases the risk of incident ROA. However, one year prior ROA, the presence of almost any abnormal morphologic feature increases risk of ROA in the subsequent year.