Characteristics of drought, low temperature, and concurrent events of maize in Songliao Plain

Abstract

Maize is susceptible to drought and low temperatures. In recent years, drought, low temperatures, and their composite events have often occurred during the growth period of maize, causing a huge impact. In this study, maize in the Songliao Plain was used as the research object. Based on the crop water surplus deficit index (CWSDI) and heat index (F(T)), combined with the Theil–Sen median and Mann–Kendall tests (Sen–MK) and empirical orthogonal function (EOF), the temporal trends and spatial patterns of drought and low temperatures in different growth periods of maize were obtained. Copula modelling was used to analyse the joint probability distribution and return period of drought and low temperatures. The results showed that the temporal variation trend of the CWSDI was significantly different at different growth periods of maize, and there were different trends and spatial modal distributions. However, the temporal variation trend of F(T) was similar, showing a downward trend over the entire region. There was no obvious asymmetry or skew‐dependent structure in the distribution of concurrent events of drought and low temperature; however, the joint probability contours of different growth periods were biased to the upper left. The recurrence period of drought and low‐temperature concurrent events was within 2 years, and the recurrence period was basically between 2 and 5 years, with a reduction in drought or low temperatures.

Assessment of Variability and Attribution of Drought Based on GRACE in China from Three Perspectives: Water Storage Component, Climate Change, Water Balance

“…Theil-Sen trend analysis is a robust non-parametric statistical trend calculation method for estimating the slope of a linear trend in a time series, without requiring the sample to follow a certain distribution, and it is not be disturbed by outliers [56,57].…”

“…If β > 0 reflects an upward trend, β < 0 reflects a downward trend. Mann-Kendall trend test (M-K trend test) is a non-parametric statistical method, which is used to determine the significance of trends [56,57]. The calculations are performed as follows:…”