Characteristics of the monsoon low pressure systems in the Indian subcontinent and the associated extreme precipitation events

Thomas, Tresa Mary; Bala, G.; Srinivas, V. V.

doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05562-2

Cited by 25 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Only a handful of studies tried to investigate the LPS activity in CMIP5 models or climate models in general (Dong et al., 2020; Praveen et al., 2015; Rastogi et al., 2018; Sabin et al., 2013; Sandeep et al., 2018; Sørland et al., 2016; Stowasser et al., 2009). The relatively weak LPS vortex embedded in the large‐scale monsoon circulation challenges the ability of vorticity‐based tracking algorithms to extract the trajectories from model simulations or reanalyzes data sets (Praveen et al., 2015; Thomas et al., 2021). The studies that use vorticity‐based tracking algorithms ended up extracting only the stronger categories of LPS (Rastogi et al., 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Downstream and In Situ Genesis of Monsoon Low‐Pressure Systems in Climate Models

Srujan

Sandeep

Suhas

2021

Earth and Space Science

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The monsoon low-pressure systems (LPSs) are synoptic scale vortices embedded in the large-scale monsoon circulation. Although the LPS form in all monsoon regions, they are most prominent over the Indian monsoon region, with an average of 12 ( E 2) storm genesis during June to September (JJAS) every year . The LPS are the main rain-bearing systems that help distribute precipitation over deep interior parts of the continental India (Hunt et al., 2016;Krishnamurthy & Ajayamohan, 2010;Krishnan et al., 2011;Sikka, 1977). The current generation coupled climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) have low skill in simulating the LPS activity over India (Praveen et al., 2015). They have also found that the LPS activity contributes as much as 60% of the total JJAS rainfall received over Central India and that, the models that simulate LPS-related rainfall correctly were able to simulate the total rainfall reliably. Similar results were also obtained by Hunt and Fletcher (2019).A dry bias over continental India is a common problem across the CMIP5 models (

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Downstream and In Situ Genesis of Monsoon Low‐Pressure Systems in Climate Models

Srujan

Sandeep

Suhas

2021

Earth and Space Science

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“…The method to estimate the median track is discussed in Thomas et al . (2021) [Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]…”

Section: Model Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Monsoon low pressure systems (LPS) are synoptic‐scale tropical disturbances that form over the Indian subcontinent along the quasi‐stationary trough in the Indo‐Gangetic plains during the summer monsoon (June to September) season (Sikka, 1977; Goswami, 1987). Around 14 LPS form every year (Mooley and Shukla, 1987), which contribute 60–70% of the mean summer monsoon precipitation in the north, east, and central India, and about 78% of extreme precipitation events in the country (Parthasarathy et al, 1994; Thomas et al, 2021). A significant increasing trend is observed in the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events in central India during the monsoon season over the period 1951–2000 (Goswami et al, 2006; Roxy et al, 2017), and this has been attributed to an increase in synoptic activity (Ajayamohan et al, 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this study, the present‐day control simulations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1.2.2) with and without SAMs are compared to investigate their influence on the formation and propagation of LPS in the Indian subcontinent. The LPS are tracked in the model simulations by the Automated Tracking Algorithm using Geopotential Criteria (ATAGC) (Thomas et al, 2021), and their characteristics are compared with those in the observations. Furthermore, we investigate if SAMs act as a barrier to the remnants of Pacific Ocean tropical cyclones for movement towards the Indian subcontinent and hence reduce the number of LPS during the monsoon season.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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CESM simulation of monsoon low pressure systems over India

Thomas

Bala

Srinivas

2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Monsoon low pressure systems (LPS) during the summer monsoon season (June–September) over India are a lifeline for the agriculture‐dependent country. We use the Community Earth System Model (CESM1.2.2) to simulate the LPS characteristics (genesis, propagation direction, tracks, intensity, and precipitation) over India and the Bay of Bengal and analyse the influence of Southeast Asian mountains (SAMs) on these characteristics. CESM reproduced most of the LPS characteristics. However, a southward latitudinal shift of about 4° is simulated in the median of the tracks, which is likely due to the weaker simulated upper tropospheric meridional temperature gradient (MTG) in the Indian region. Removal of SAMs is found to have little influence on LPS characteristics. Further, it causes only a slight reduction in mean summer monsoon precipitation (by 5%) and LPS‐related precipitation (from 10.7 ± 1.0 to 10.3 ± 0.8 mm/day) over India, as SAMs have negligible influence on in situ westward propagating LPS which are the major contributors to LPS‐related precipitation. The insensitivity of LPS characteristics and precipitation over India to the removal of SAMs can be attributed to their low height and the insensitivity of MTG to the height of these mountains.

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“…The monsoon low‐pressure systems (LPSs) are synoptic‐scale vortices embedded in the large‐scale South Asian summer monsoon circulation. These precipitating vortices produce more than half of the summer monsoon rainfall over Central India (Deoras et al., 2021; Hunt & Fletcher, 2019; Krishnamurthy & Ajayamohan, 2010; Praveen et al., 2015; Thomas et al., 2021). The weak cyclonic vortices that form over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) during the summer monsoon season (June to September) were reported more than a century ago (e.g., Blanford (1890); Eliot (1884)).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Dynamical Linkage Between Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones and Indian Monsoon Low‐Pressure Systems

Srujan

Sandeep

Suhas

et al. 2022

Geophysical Research Letters

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The relatively weak tropical storms, known as low‐pressure systems (LPSs), contribute as much as 60% of the seasonal precipitation over the hugely populated central India. More than a third of LPSs are formed by the downstream amplification of the westward propagating disturbances from the Pacific. Here, we show that the downstream LPS genesis is associated with the tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Western North Pacific (WNP). Four major clusters of landfalling TCs that have a relatively lesser degree of recurvature account for about 83% of the downstream LPS genesis. Causality in the fluctuations of the sea level pressure over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) prior to the initiation of LPSs is attributed to the Rossby wave activity over WNP through transfer entropy analysis. Our results suggest a potential for the prediction of the downstream synoptic activity over the BoB at least seven days ahead.

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Characteristics of the monsoon low pressure systems in the Indian subcontinent and the associated extreme precipitation events

Cited by 25 publications

References 39 publications

Downstream and In Situ Genesis of Monsoon Low‐Pressure Systems in Climate Models

Downstream and In Situ Genesis of Monsoon Low‐Pressure Systems in Climate Models

CESM simulation of monsoon low pressure systems over India

A Dynamical Linkage Between Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones and Indian Monsoon Low‐Pressure Systems

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