Characteristics of wave amplitude and currents in South China Sea induced by a virtual extreme tsunami

Ren, Zhiyuan; Zhao, Xi; Wang, Ben-long; Dias, Frédéric; Liu, Hua

doi:10.1016/s1001-6058(16)60747-3

Cited by 23 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…The state‐of‐the‐art research on local tsunami warning techniques still focuses on the fast estimate of earthquake magnitude (e.g., Melgar & Bock, ; Melgar et al, , ), or earthquake rupture extent (An & Meng, ), and prediction of tsunami waves using uniform slip models. Besides, uniform slip models are also used by researchers to assess local tsunami hazards (e.g., Ren et al, ; Wu & Huang, ). Although it is widely accepted that tsunami waves are long waves, and hence, the main feature can be predicted without knowing earthquake rupture details, there have been few studies to quantify the differences between uniform and heterogeneous slip models in terms of generating tsunami waves (e.g., Greenslade & Titov, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of Tsunami Waves by Uniform Slip Models

Liu

Ren

et al. 2018

JGR Oceans

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Conventional tsunami warning systems for local and far‐field areas utilize uniform slip models to predict tsunami waves. The reasons are twofold. First, it is challenging to develop accurate finite‐fault slip models in a short time after an earthquake. Second, tsunami waves are long waves, and hence, the main feature may be predicted without knowing earthquake rupture details. Still, there have been few studies that quantitatively analyze the errors caused by uniform slip models. In this paper, we evaluate if and how such models may be applied for tsunami warnings. For the 2011 Tohoku, 2014 Iquique, and 2015 Illapel tsunamis, we first construct optimum uniform slip models with minimum tsunami waveform misfit and then compare the synthetic tsunami waves with finite‐fault model predictions. Predictions from both type of models match the tsunami data very well, indicating that the prediction errors caused by neglecting slip heterogeneity are insignificant. Further, we derive a common relation between the rupture area and earthquake magnitude. Additionally, the optimum rupture length and width ratio in terms of predicting tsunami waves is determined to be 1 for the three earthquakes. Lastly, we find that moving the uniform slip model to the center of global Centroid Moment Tensor solution produces reasonably small errors in the predicted waveforms. Applying the methodology to three more historic tsunamis shows that uniform slip models can well recover the Deep‐ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis system recordings, but the rupture center can differ from the global Centroid Moment Tensor solution. Our findings can potentially prompt more reliable tsunami warning strategies for future events.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of Tsunami Waves by Uniform Slip Models

Liu

Ren

et al. 2018

JGR Oceans

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“…The Pearl River Estuary (PRE) could be affected by a tsunami generated by an earthquake in the Manila subduction zone [2][3][4][5], Taiwan region [6], and local sources [7]. The potential tsunami from the Manila trench is the most expected source for hazardous tsunamis in the South China Sea [2,8].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Manila subduction zone, or so-called Manila Trench, is an active subduction zone starting from the northern tip of Palawan, Philippine, evolving to the north along the Western edge of Luzon, Philippine and ending in Taiwan with the length of about 1000 km. It was initiated in the early Miocene (22)(23)(24)(25) and remains active to the present day [4,8,9].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Literature has employed numerical modeling techniques to analyze the probability for tsunami waves of various heights to hit the PRE based on potential large earthquakes originating from the Manila Trench [1,[3][4][5]12]. Some have concluded that the wave height could reach between eight to ten meters in case of high magnitude earthquake [4,9,13]. Time of the tsunami wave arrival to the PRE coast was also estimated in some models between two hours and a half to three hours [4,9].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Some have concluded that the wave height could reach between eight to ten meters in case of high magnitude earthquake [4,9,13]. Time of the tsunami wave arrival to the PRE coast was also estimated in some models between two hours and a half to three hours [4,9].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Evacuation Priority Method in Tsunami Hazard Based on DMSP/OLS Population Mapping in the Pearl River Estuary, China

Mohamadi

Chen

Liu

2019

IJGI

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Evacuation plans are critical in case of natural disaster to save people’s lives. The priority of population evacuation on coastal areas could be useful to reduce the death toll in case of tsunami hazard. In this study, the population density remote sensing mapping approach was developed using population records in 2013 and Defense Meteorological Satellite Program’s Operational Linescan System (DMSP/OLS) night-time light (NTL) image of the same year for defining the coastal densest resident areas in Pearl River Estuary (PRE), China. Two pixel-based saturation correction methods were evaluated for application of population density mapping to enhance DMSP/OLS NTL image. The Vegetation Adjusted NTL Urban Index (VANUI) correction method (R2 (original/corrected): 0.504, Std. error: 0.0069) was found to be the better-fit correction method of NTL image saturation for the study area compared to Human Settlement Index (HSI) correction method (R2 (original/corrected): 0.219, Std. error: 0.1676). The study also gained a better dynamic range of HSI correction (0~25 vs. 0.1~5.07) compared to the previous one [27]. The town-level’s population NTL simulation model is built (R2 = 0.43, N = 47) for the first time in PRE with mean relative error (MSE) of 32% (N = 24, town level), On the other side, the tsunami hazard map was produced based on numerical modeling of potential tsunami wave height and velocity, combining with the river net system, elevation, slope, and vegetation cover factors. Both results were combined to produce an evacuation map in PRE. The simulation of tsunami exposure on density of population showed that the highest evacuation priority was found to be in most of Zhuhai city area and the coastal area of Shenzhen City under wave height of nine meters, while lowest evacuation priority was defined in Panyu and Nansha Districts of Guangzhou City, eastern and western parts of Zhongshan City, and northeast and northwest parts of Dongguan City. The method of tsunami risk simulation and the result of mapped tsunami exposure are of significance for direction to tsunami disaster-risk reduction or evacuation traffic arrangement in PRE or other coastal areas in the world.

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Seabed erosion and deposition related to the typhoon activity of the past millennium on the southeast coast of China

Xiong

Zong

Huang

et al. 2020

Earth Surf Processes Landf

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Catastrophic events often interrupt long‐term Earth surface processes. In coastal areas, although millennial‐scale trends of climatic and sea‐level changes determine the trajectory of sedimentary landform evolution, storm and/or tsunami activity can cause abrupt changes in depositional conditions that may alter the long‐term sedimentary processes. Here, we report a sedimentary hiatus that is widely observed from the late Holocene sedimentary sequence at the seabed along the southeast China coast. This hiatus was discovered by close temporal sedimentary and radiocarbon dating analyses of a seabed sedimentary sequence in the mouth area of the Pearl River estuary. The results suggest that a couple of metres in the middle to late Holocene sediment at the seabed were eroded by a catastrophic event happening c. 1000–800 cal. Years BP. In theory, a mega‐tsunami generated from the Manila Trench could have caused such erosion at the seabed, but there is a lack of direct geological and historical evidence to support such a hypothesis. Much more likely, a super‐typhoon struck the coast and caused the erosion. This hypothesis is strongly supported by the region's historical and geological records, which suggest a period characteristic of intense typhoons ranging from the Medieval Warm Period to the climate transition phase (c. 1000–600 cal. Years BP). During the subsequent Little Ice Age, deposition of sandy sediment continued, suggesting frequent but weaker typhoon activity. Over the past two centuries the deposition of sandy sediment and gravels began, implying the beginning of a phase of intensifying typhoon conditions, possibly a result of the recent warming climate. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Characteristics of wave amplitude and currents in South China Sea induced by a virtual extreme tsunami

Cited by 23 publications

References 36 publications

Prediction of Tsunami Waves by Uniform Slip Models

Prediction of Tsunami Waves by Uniform Slip Models

Evacuation Priority Method in Tsunami Hazard Based on DMSP/OLS Population Mapping in the Pearl River Estuary, China

Seabed erosion and deposition related to the typhoon activity of the past millennium on the southeast coast of China

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