Characteristics, precursors, and potential predictability of Amu Darya Drought in an Earth system model large ensemble

Hoell, Andrew; Eischeid, Jon; Barlow, Mathew; McNally, Amy

doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05381-5

Cited by 16 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…Drought is the most devastating and recurrent natural disaster in the basin. Recent droughts in 2018 in the basin caused a large decline in food production, and thus, food scarcity in some parts of the basin (Hoell et al, 2020). In recent years, the basin's hydrology has undergone tremendous change due to human intervention in river flow (Khaydar et al, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The climate of the basin is changing in the line of global climate change. The continuous rise in temperature and consequent Pr changes would certainly change drought patterns in the basin (Hoell et al, 2020;Kattakulov et al, 2021;Yang et al, 2020b). Due to the arid nature and complexity of the hydrological regime of the basin, climate change may extremely affect the hydrological process (Immerzeel et al, 2012;Xu et al, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Only two studies attempted to project drought in the study area (Hoell et al, 2020;Yang et al, 2020b). However, the results presented by Yang et al (2020b) are highly uncertain due to unreliable data.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, the results presented by Yang et al (2020b) are highly uncertain due to unreliable data. The droughts projected by Hoell et al (2020) is incomplete due to the use of only RCP5-8.5. It is required to project droughts for SSPs to streamline the existing mitigation measures adopted based on RCPs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Projection of Droughts in Amu Darya River Basin for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Salehie¹,

Hamed²,

Shahid

2021

Preprint

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Droughts significantly affect socioeconomic and the environment primarily by decreasing the water availability of a region. This study aims to assess the changes in drought characteristics in Central Asia's transboundary Amu Darya river basin for four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). The precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature (Pr, Tmx and Tmn) simulations of 19 global climate models (GCMs) of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) were used to select the best models to prepare the multimodel ensemble (MME). The standard precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was used to estimate droughts for multiple timescales from Pr and potential evapotranspiration (PET) derived from Tmx and Tmn. The changes in the frequency and spatial distribution of droughts for different severities and timescales were evaluated for the two future periods, 2020–2059 and 2060-2099, compared to the base period of 1975-2014. The study revealed four GCMs, AWI-CM-1-1-MR, CMCC-ESM2, INM-CM4-8 and MPI-ESM1-2-LR, as most suitable for projections of droughts in the study area. The multimodel ensemble (MME) mean of the selected GCMs showed a decrease in Pr by -3 to 12% in the near future and a change in the range of 3 to -9% in the far future in most parts of the basin for different SSPs. The PET showed almost no change in most parts of the basin in the near future and an increase in the range of 10 to 70% in the far future. The change (%) in projected drought occurrence showed to noticeably decrease in the near future, particularly for moderate droughts by up to ≤-50% for SSP5-8.5 and an increase in the far future by up to ≥30% for SSP3-7.0. The increase in all severities of droughts was projected mostly in the center and northwest of the basin. Overall, the results showed a drought shift from the east to the northwest of the basin in the future.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Projection of Droughts in Amu Darya River Basin for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Salehie¹,

Hamed²,

Shahid

2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The basin's hydrology has undergone tremendous change in the recent past due to human intervention in river ow (Khaydar et al, 2021). The increased temperature in the basin has worsened this situation and imposed further stresses on water resources and public health (Hoell et al, 2020;Hu et al, 2021;Su et al, 2021b). Xu et al (2021) projected that increased temperature in the Amu river basin (ARB) would decrease river ow by 78.8-98.7% during 2021-2050.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projection of Hot and Cold Extremes in the Amu River Basin of Central Asia using GCMs CMIP6

Salehie

Ismail

Hamed

et al. 2021

Preprint

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The extreme temperature has become more frequent and intense due to global warming, particularly in dry regions, causing devastating impacts on humans and ecosystems. The transboundary Amu river basin (ARB) is the most vulnerable region in Central Asia (CA) to extreme weather linked to climate change. This study aimed to project warm and cold extremes in ARB for three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and two time-horizons, 2020–2059 and 2060-2099, using daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) simulations of global climate models (GCMs) of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase six (CMIP6). Results revealed that the basin's west experiences more hot extremes and the east more cold extremes. Climate change would cause a significant increase in the annual mean of Tmax and Tmin. However, the increase in mean Tmin would be much higher (5.0ºC ) than the mean Tmax (4.6ºC ). It would cause an increase in the hot extremes and a decrease in the cold extremes in the basin. The higher increase in the hot extremes would be in the west, while the higher decrease in the cold extreme in the basin's east. The number of days above 40℃ would increase from 45 to 60 days in the basin's west and northwest compared to the historical period. The number of days below -20℃ would decrease up to 45 days in the basin's east. Overall, the decrease in cold extremes would be much faster than the increase in hot extremes.

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Mechanism of winter precipitation variations in the southern arid Central Asia

Xie

Huang

Feng

et al. 2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The southern arid central Asia (SACA, 35.25°–45°N, 46.25°–80°E) is influenced by Mediterranean type of climate with wet cool season. This study analysed the variations of winter precipitation and their mechanisms during 1979–2017. The results suggest the variations of winter precipitation in SACA are influenced by two water vapour pathways, which are closely linked to a low‐latitude high‐pressure anomaly near Indian subcontinent and the mid‐high latitude North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), respectively. Specifically, at low latitudes, the northern Indian Ocean heated by El Niño causes the anomalous intensification of the subtropical high throughout the low latitude region, especially over the Indian subcontinent, resulting in increased water vapour transport from the northern Indian Ocean to SACA. This result of low latitude is also supported by model simulations. At middle and high latitudes, the negative NAO phase leads to a southward displacement of the water vapour pathway and carries water vapour to pass over number of upwind water bodies, resulting in the transport of more westerly‐associated water vapour to SACA. Further analysis showed that there is a northwest‐southeast teleconnection wave train, from the North Atlantic to Central Asia and to the Indian subcontinent, which allows wave fluxes originating in the North Atlantic and the northern Indian Ocean to propagate from high and low latitudes, respectively, to the study area. At the same time, high‐latitude cold air advection, brought by the low‐pressure system in Central Asia, converges with the flow of warm water vapour from the low‐latitude northern Indian Ocean, generating an ascending motion and reducing atmospheric static stability, and thereby lead to increasing precipitation in SACA. Therefore, the key to determining the origin of precipitation variations in SACA is understanding the interaction of large‐scale circulation systems at low and mid‐high latitudes. Key words arid Central Asia, precipitation, dynamic mechanism

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Characteristics, precursors, and potential predictability of Amu Darya Drought in an Earth system model large ensemble

Cited by 16 publications

References 55 publications

Projection of Droughts in Amu Darya River Basin for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Projection of Droughts in Amu Darya River Basin for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Projection of Hot and Cold Extremes in the Amu River Basin of Central Asia using GCMs CMIP6

Mechanism of winter precipitation variations in the southern arid Central Asia

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