Surface dielectric barrier discharge (SDBD) actuators are a type of asymmetric dielectric barrier discharge (DBD) actuator that can be used to generate ions and produce thrust for near-space vehicles. In this paper, a physics-based model for SDBD produced thrust is developed that accounts for geometric and environmental variation between SDBDs. The presented SDBD analytical model (SDBD-AM) is based on models for parallel-plate DBDs but accounts for the "virtual electrode" resulting from changing plasma length that is particular to SDBDs. To validate the model, thrust measurements from twelve different configurations from previous studies were used, and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) between each configuration and SDBD-AM was determined. The observed effects on the model were attributed to structural effects including electrode width, electrode spacing, dielectric, and environmental effects including pressure, and the apparent uncertainties are different for each effect. As a result, it was obtained that the MAPE between SDBD-AM and the experimental data for different structures is 11%, and for different pressures, it is 12%. The body force field has been simulated using SDBD-AM and a distribution function in COMSOL software, and the body force profile near the exposed electrode has been validated with a previous numerical model. This model can be used for the design and optimization of SDBD actuators and also in the design of control systems such as spacecraft attitude control in order to increase the accuracy and performance of the controller.