Characterization of the Temporal and Spatial Dynamics of the Dengue Epidemic in Northern Sri Lanka

Abstract

ABSTRACT:Dengue outbreaks are affected by biological, ecological, socio-economic and demographic factors that vary over time and space. These factors have been examined separately, with limited success, and still require clarification. The present study aimed to investigate the spatial and temporal relationships between these factors and dengue outbreaks in the northern region of Sri Lanka.Remote sensing (RS) data gathered from a plurality of satellites: TRMM TMI, Aqua AMSR-E, GCOM-W AMSR2, DMSP SSM/I, DMSP SSMIS, NOAA-19 AMSU, MetOp-A AMSU and GEO IR were used to develop an index comprising rainfall. Humidity (total precipitable water, or vertically integrated water vapor amount) and temperature (surface temperature) data were acquired from the JAXA Satellite Monitoring for Environmental Studies (JASMES) portal which were retrieved and processed from the Aqua/MODIS and Terra/MODIS data. RS data gathered by ALOS/AVNIR-2 were used to detect urbanization, and a digital land cover map was used to extract land cover information. Other data on relevant factors and dengue outbreaks were collected through institutions and extant databases. The analyzed RS data and databases were integrated into geographic information systems, enabling both spatial association analysis and spatial statistical analysis. Our findings show that the combination of ecological factors derived from RS data and socio-economic and demographic factors is suitable for predicting spatial and temporal patterns of dengue outbreaks.

How Do Climate Variables Affect the Transmission of Dengue Infection in South and Southeast Asia: A Scoping Review

“…This review analyses studies providing evidence on many climate variables. The majority of the articles which have studied the effect of temperature on dengue incidence have concluded that there is a positive association between moderate temperature between 25 0 C -34 0 C and dengue incidence (Ajim Ali & Ahmad, 2018;Ali et al, 2020;Anno et al, 2014;Anwar et al, 2019;Arcari & Tapper, 2017;Arsin et al, 2020;Campbell, 2014;Haryanto, 2016;Joshua, Kaliaperumal, Krishnamurthy, Muthusamy, Venkatachalam, Gowri, Shete, Ramasamy, Gupta, & Murhekar, 2020;Joshua, Kaliaperumal, Krishnamurthy, Muthusamy, Venkatachalam, Gowri, Shete, Ramasamy, Gupta, Murhekar, et al, 2020;Khalid et al, 2021;Lowe et al, 2016;Netrananda & Mani, 2021;Polwiang, 2016;Roy et al, 2018;Salamah et al, 2012;Salim & Syairaji, 2020;Sriklin et al, 2021) . One study has shown the negative association between maximum temperature and dengue incidence (S Wongkoon et al, 2013).…”

“…One study has shown the negative association between maximum temperature and dengue incidence (S Wongkoon et al, 2013). Most of the articles which have studied the relationship between the number of rainy days and dengue cases have shown a strong significant relationship (Gama & Nakagoshi, 2013;(Ali & Ma'Rufi, 2018;Anno et al, 2014); (Chandran & Azeez, 2015) ; Ali & Ma'Rufi, 2018;Rahman et al, 2018;Ummi Khairunisa & Wahyuningsih, 2018;Ishak & Kasman, 2018;Tosepu et al, 2018;Supadmi et al, 2019;(Minarti et al, 2021;S. A. Rahman et al, 2018;Rusli & Yushananta, 2020) Nair & Aravind, 2020Minarti et al, 2021;(Dutta et al, 2021); (Ishak & Kasman, 2018;Ummi Khairunisa & Wahyuningsih, 2018;Nair & Aravind, 2020;Sriklin et al, 2021;Supadmi, Perwitasari, Abdulah, & Suwantika, 2019;Tosepu et al, 2018).…”

“…Nine studies have been conducted in India, 4 in Bangladesh, 25 in Indonesia, 09 in Pakistan, one in Nepal, 08 in Sri Lanka, 07 in Thailand only, 01 in Thailand and Singapore and one in a region consisting of Bangladesh, Thailand, Myanmar, India, Philippine, Sri Lanka. Most of the studies have shown a positive association between moderate temperature and dengue incidence (Anno et al, 2014;Arsin et al, 2020;Campbell, 2014;Joshua, Kaliaperumal, Krishnamurthy, Muthusamy, Venkatachalam, Gowri, Shete, Ramasamy, Gupta, & Murhekar, 2020;Joshua, Kaliaperumal, Krishnamurthy, Muthusamy, Venkatachalam, Gowri, Shete, Ramasamy, Gupta, Murhekar, et al, 2020;Khalid et al, 2021;Salamah, Kuswanto, & Yussanti, 2012). One study has shown the negative association between maximum temperature and dengue incidence (S Wongkoon, Jaroensutasinee, & Jaroensutasinee, 2013).…”

“…Eighteen articles which have studied the relationship between the number of rainy days and dengue cases have shown a strong significant relationship (Ali & Ma'Rufi, 2018;Anno et al, 2014) (Chandran & Azeez, 2015) ; ; (Minarti et al, 2021;S. A. Rahman et al, 2018;Rusli & Yushananta, 2020) (Ummi Khairunisa & Wahyuningsih, 2018;Nair & Aravind, 2020; K. M. Rahman et al, 2020;Sriklin et al, 2021;Sripugdee et al, 2010).…”

Diseases Spread Prediction in Tropical Areas by Machine Learning Methods Ensembling and Spatial Analysis Techniques

“…However, at the moment there are no universal models that would make it possible to effectively make such forecasts for various territories. There are separate studies (Anno, et al 2014, Kiang, Soebiyanto, 2012, Naish, Tong, 2014, Chan, et al, 2011 describing forecast models for certain territories, but the impossibility of extrapolating the results of these works to other territories significantly reduces their usefulness (The Influence of Global Environmental Change on Infectious Disease Dynamics, 2014, Gubler, 2011).…”