Characterization, variability and long‐term trends on local climate in a Mexican tropical dry forest

Abstract

Based on 40 years of meteorological data, we characterized and analysed long‐term climatic trends in the Chamela‐Cuixmala Biosphere Reserve on the Pacific coast of central Mexico. The region is still covered by a large proportion of well‐preserved tropical dry forest, characterized by a short period of rain and a dry season of around 8 months. We found a sustained temperature increase which is likely driven by global climate change. An increasing trend in rainfall was also found, but the trend was detected only during the wet season. Correspondingly, an increase in runoff during the rainfall season was also detected; this seems to be linked with an increasing number of intense rainfall events, rather than an increase in the total number of rainy days. El Niño years are likely to present below average precipitation during the wet season and above average precipitation during the dry season. The opposite is expected during La Niña years, when tropical cyclones are likely to come closer to the coast and cause intense rainfall events during the hurricane season. As many of the studied variables are likely to change under climate change scenarios, our results highlight the need to understand the expected impacts of global climate change on tropical dry forests. In particular, it is necessary to monitor changes in water availability to anticipate its consequences for the forest and the human communities that depend on it.

Dinámica hidrológica ecosistémica en un bosque tropical seco asociado a un medio fracturado

“…Nuestro análisis a una escala más detallada utilizando los datos de largo plazo muestra que en efecto, no solo el volumen y continuidad de los eventos de precipitación inciden en la ocurrencia de escurrimientos con flujo base, sino también las condiciones fenológicas de la vegetación y del suelo. Si aunamos la tendencia al incremento de la precipitación relacionado al cambio climático, principalmente durante los meses invernales (Maass et al 2018, Takano-Rojas et al 2023, es probable que el almacenamiento de agua en las microcuencas también aumente. Es así como la ocurrencia de precipitaciones extraordinarias parecen ser claves en el proceso de recarga y descarga en estos ecosistemas.…”

“…El clima es cálido subhúmedo con lluvias en verano (Aw0i), siendo el más seco de los subhúmedos. La precipitación promedio anual es de 832 mm ± 277 mm (Takano-Rojas et al 2023); la mayor parte de los eventos son nocturnos y < 20 mm, representando el 28 % de la lluvia total anual (Maass et al 2018). La temporada de lluvias, conocida como "monzón mexicano" inicia de manera regular a mediados del mes de junio o inicios del mes de julio con una duración promedio de 5 meses, con una mayor entrada de agua por eventos ciclónicos.…”

Temporal Dynamics and Trend Analysis of Areal Rainfall in Muger Subwatershed, Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia

“…Nowadays, examining the variability and trends of weather over space and time is becoming an area of serious concern. Previous studies conducted on climate variability, for example, Larbi et al [6], Taxak et al [7], Asfaw et al [8], Miheretu [9], Adugna et al [10], Kale and Nagesh Kumar [11], Bekuma et al [12], Hussain et al [13], Birara et al [14], Ma et al [15], Serrano-Notivoli et al [16], and Takano-Rojas et al [17] stated the signifcances of serious examination and monitoring of potential impacts and planning of possible adaptation strategies in diferent sectors. Moreover, Duan et al [18] studied the annual, seasonal, and monthly precipitation trends for the northern Japanese Island of Hokkaido using the Mann-Kendall test and geostatistical interpolation techniques.…”