Characterizing supply-side drivers of structural change in the construction of economic baseline projections

Château, Jean; Corong, Erwin; Lanzi, Elisa; Carrico, Caitlyn; Fouré, Jean; Laborde, David

doi:10.21642/jgea.050104af

Cited by 11 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…Following Chateau et al. (2020), 55 a 2% productivity growth gap between manufacture and service sectors is also imposed. Finally, to account for baseline growth rates in crop yields, we used data from FAOSTAT (2021) and extrapolated yields up until 2030 based on the observed linear growth rate between 1998 – 2014 (given the reference year of the GTAP database) for each agricultural commodity group within each region in the GTAP database.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting global oil palm expansion under zero-deforestation commitments: Direct and indirect land use change impacts

et al. 2023

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting global oil palm expansion under zero-deforestation commitments: Direct and indirect land use change impacts

et al. 2023

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“…The modified approach and associated parameters provide for: (1) sluggishness in the short‐run to recognise that installed and new capital cannot necessarily be relocated between activities to equalise returns at database rates and that labour may not be perfectly mobile between activities; and (2) flexibility in the longer run whereby capital is relocated/newly accumulated between activities to approximately equalise returns at benchmark rates and labour relocates according to employment opportunities to approximately equalise proportional changes in real wage rates across activities. This approach aligns the current implementation with the class of CGE model that assumes stickiness in the allocation of capital across sectors (Chateau et al 2020, p. 116). Foreign–domestic investment parameters have been set to reflect a home‐country bias effect associated with the Feldstein and Horioka (1980) hypothesis and consumption–saving elasticities relax the fixed shares assumption of the original model to allow a limited degree of substitution between consumption now and in the future (through saving).…”

Section: Modelling Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

National and Sectoral Effects of a Decline in the Desirability of Investing in Australia

Gretton

2021

Australian Economic Review

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Australia has a long‐standing dependence on foreign investment to make up the difference between domestic saving and investment opportunities. There is, nevertheless, an ongoing debate about the merits or otherwise of inward foreign investment. There has also been a recent tightening of criteria governing foreign investment. The OECD assesses Australia's foreign direct investment regime to be one of the most restrictive in the OECD area, while broader discussions have considered the potential for a decline in Australia's credit rating. This paper uses a dynamic global general equilibrium model—GDyn‐FS—to report on the national and sectoral effects of a decline in the desirability of investing in Australia, relative to other countries.

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“…The naïve baseline only accounts for these macroeconomic developments. The expert-based baseline coincides with OECD (2019) and adds a full set of assumptions about structural and energy system changes as described in Chateau et al (2020)'s "full structural change" baseline; see also Section 2.3. CGE models are often unable to provide further levels of disaggregation in terms of fuel-and technology-specific energy demand.…”

Section: Baseline Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Capturing Key Energy and Emission Trends in CGE Models: Assessment of Status and Remaining Challenges

et al. 2020

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Limiting global warming in line with the goals in the Paris Agreement will require substantial technological and behavioural transformations. This challenge drives many of the current modelling trends. This article undertakes a review of 17 state-of-the-art recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) models and assesses the key methodologies and applied modules they use for representing sectoral energy and emission characteristics and dynamics. The purpose is to provide technical insight into recent advances in the modelling of current and future energy and abatement technologies and how they can be used to make baseline projections and scenarios 20-80 years ahead. Numerical illustrations are provided. In order to represent likely energy system transitions in the decades to come, modern CGE tools have learned from bottom-up studies. Three different approaches to baseline quantification can be distinguished: (a) exploiting bottom-up model characteristics to endogenize responses of technological investment and utilization, (b) relying on external information sources to feed the exogenous parameters and variables of the model, and (c) linking the model with more technology-rich, partial models to obtain bottom-up-and pathwayconsistent parameters.

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Characterizing supply-side drivers of structural change in the construction of economic baseline projections

Cited by 11 publications

References 20 publications

Projecting global oil palm expansion under zero-deforestation commitments: Direct and indirect land use change impacts

Projecting global oil palm expansion under zero-deforestation commitments: Direct and indirect land use change impacts

National and Sectoral Effects of a Decline in the Desirability of Investing in Australia

Capturing Key Energy and Emission Trends in CGE Models: Assessment of Status and Remaining Challenges

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