Charting the Course: How Does Information about Sea Level Rise Affect the Willingness to Migrate?

Abstract

An important yet less studied factor in determining the extent of adaptation to climate change is information: are people adequately informed about their vulnerability to future climate-related risks, and does their willingness to adapt depend on this knowledge? Focusing on how communication about projected sea level rise (SLR) affects the willingness to migrate, we implemented a large randomized control survey experiment with a nationally representative sample of more than 7,000 respondents across all provinces in Vietnam. We randomly assign respondents to different information treatments. We find that providing a simple text-based information treatment about the general extent of Vietnam's exposure to projected SLR increases all respondents' willingness to migrate (including respondents living in areas not vulnerable to SLR). However, a more spatially precise map information treatment-providing the general text along with a map showing Vietnam's projected SLR exposure-leads to a more targeted effect: it only significantly increases the willingness to migrate of respondents currently residing in vulnerable areas. Finally, adding doubt to the information treatments-mentioning an official repudiation of the scientific projection of SLR-does not reduce the treatments' impact. Our findings are inconsistent with the commonly used perfect information benchmark, which assumes that people are fully informed about future climate-related risks. They also highlight the importance of providing spatially precise information in facilitating climate adaptation.