CHASE-PL Climate Projection dataset over Poland – bias adjustment of EURO-CORDEX simulations

Mezghani, Abdelkader; Dobler, Andreas; Haugen, Jan Erik; Benestad, Rasmus E.; Parding, Kajsa M.; Piniewski, Mikołaj; Kardel, Ignacy; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.

doi:10.5194/essd-9-905-2017

Cited by 50 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…Climate change effect simulations originated from the CHASE-PL Climate Projections-Gridded Daily Precipitation and Temperature 5 km data set (CPLCP-GDPT5), i.e. projections from an ensemble of nine EURO-CORDEX regional climate models for three time horizons (1971-2000, 2021-2050, 2071-2100) and two RCPs (4.5 and 8.5) (Mezghani et al 2017). A short summary of climate projections is provided in Appendix A (Tables 2 and 3).…”

Section: Modelling Data and Workflowmentioning

confidence: 99%

Model-based reconstruction and projections of soil moisture anomalies and crop losses in Poland

Piniewski

Marcinkowski

O’Keeffe

et al. 2020

Theor Appl Climatol

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Evidence shows that soil moisture (SM) anomalies (deficits or excesses) are the key factor affecting crop yield in rain-fed agriculture. Over last decades, Poland has faced several major droughts and at least one major soil moisture excess event leading to severe crop losses. This study aims to simulate the multi-annual variability of SM anomalies in Poland, using a process-based SWAT model and to assess the effect of climate change on future extreme SM conditions, potentially affecting crop yields in Poland. A crop-specific indicator based on simulated daily soil moisture content for the critical development stages of investigated crops (winter cereals, spring cereals, potato and maize) was designed, evaluated for past conditions against empirical cropweather indices (CWIs), and applied for studying future climate conditions. The study used an ensemble of nine bias-corrected EURO-CORDEX projections for two future horizons: 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 under two Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and 8.5. Historical simulation results showed that SWAT was capable of capturing major SM deficit and excess episodes for different crops in Poland. For spring cereals, potato and maize, despite a large model spread, projections generally showed increase of severity of soil moisture deficits, as well as of total area affected by them. Ensemble median fraction of land with extreme soil moisture deficits, occupied by each of these crops, is projected to at least double in size. The signals of change in soil moisture excesses for potato and maize were more dependent on selection of RCP and future horizon.

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Section: Modelling Data and Workflowmentioning

confidence: 99%

Model-based reconstruction and projections of soil moisture anomalies and crop losses in Poland

Piniewski

Marcinkowski

O’Keeffe

et al. 2020

Theor Appl Climatol

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“…A quantile mapping method, developed by the Norwegian Meteorological Institute, was applied as a bias correction procedure of climate forcing (temperature and precipitation) for both historical and scenario runs (cf. Mezghani et al, 2016). Three variables (daily values of precipitation, as well as minimum and maximum temperature) from nine general circulation models (GCM)-run-regional climate models (RCM) combinations were available (Table 1).…”

Section: Low and High Flow Projections: Scope And Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in low and high flows in the Vistula and the Odra basins: Model projections in the European‐scale context

Piniewski

Szcześniak

Kundzewicz

et al. 2017

Hydrological Processes

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A number of extensive droughts and destructive floods have occurred in Poland in the last 25 years; hence, projections of low and high river flows are of considerable interest and importance. In the first part of this paper, projections of low and high flows in the rivers of the Vistula and the Odra basins (VOB region), for two future time horizons, are presented. Projections are based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model simulations driven by results of the EURO‐CORDEX experiment under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5. The VOB region covers most of Poland and parts of five neighboring countries, giving this study an international relevance. In the second part of the paper, a review of projections of low and high flows in rivers in Central and Eastern Europe is presented. Despite a substantial spread of flow projections, the main message of the modelling part is that increases of both low and high flows are dominating. The magnitude of increase of low flow is considerably higher than that of high flow. In other words, future streamflow droughts are projected to be less severe, whereas, in contrast, river floods are projected to increase, which is a challenge for flood risk reduction, water management, and climate change adaptation. There is an overall agreement of our findings for the VOB region with projections of hydrological extremes from large‐scale models forced by EURO‐CORDEX results in the European‐scale studies.

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“…Projected changes in sowing and harvest dates are particularly important in planning agricultural management and adaptation strategies [51]. In addition, Eitzinger et al [7] pointed out that farmers have already implemented adaptation measures, such as altered production techniques and the timing of management practices, in Poland [52,53]. Nevertheless, it has to be taken into consideration that the applied model does not consider biotic stresses (pests and diseases), which can affect the yield and growth of crops [8].…”

Section: Changes In Spring Barley Yield Due To Irrigation In the Futumentioning

confidence: 99%

The Response of Spring Barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) to Climate Change in Northern Serbia

et al. 2019

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The present study assessed the effect of projected climate change on the sowing time, onset, and duration of flowering, the duration of the growing season, and the grain yield of spring barley in Northern Serbia. An AquaCrop simulation covered two climate model integration periods (2001–2030 and 2071–2100) using a dual-step approach (with and without irrigation). After considering the effect of climate change on barley production, the economic benefit of future supplemental irrigation was assessed. The model was calibrated and validated using observed field data (2006–2014), and the simulation’s outcomes for future scenarios were compared to those of the baseline period (1971–2000) that was used for the expected climate analysis. The results showed that the projected features of barley production for the 2001–2030 period did not differ much from current practice in this region. On the contrary, for the 2071–2100 period, barley was expected to be sown earlier, to prolong its vegetation, and to shorten flowering’s duration. Nevertheless, its yield was expected to remain stable. An economic feasibility assessment of irrigation in the future indicated a negative income, which is why spring barley will most likely remain rain-fed under future conditions.

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CHASE-PL Climate Projection dataset over Poland – bias adjustment of EURO-CORDEX simulations

Cited by 50 publications

References 30 publications

Model-based reconstruction and projections of soil moisture anomalies and crop losses in Poland

Model-based reconstruction and projections of soil moisture anomalies and crop losses in Poland

Changes in low and high flows in the Vistula and the Odra basins: Model projections in the European‐scale context

The Response of Spring Barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) to Climate Change in Northern Serbia

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