Chemometrics comes to court: evidence evaluation of chem–bio threat agent attacks

Abstract

Forensic statistics is a well-established scientific field whose purpose is to statistically analyze evidence in order to support legal decisions. It traditionally relies on methods that assume small numbers of independent variables and multiple samples. Unfortunately, such methods are less applicable when dealing with highly correlated multivariate data sets such as those generated by emerging high throughput analytical technologies. Chemometrics is a field that has a wealth of methods for the analysis of such complex data sets, so it would be desirable to combine the two fields in order to identify best practices for forensic statistics in the future. This paper provides a brief introduction to forensic statistics and describes how chemometrics could be integrated with its established methods to improve the evaluation of evidence in court.The paper describes how statistics and chemometrics can be integrated, by analyzing a previous know forensic data set composed of bacterial communities from fingerprints. The presented strategy can be applied in cases where chemical and biological threat agents have been illegally disposed.

Route Determination of Sulfur Mustard Using Nontargeted Chemical Attribution Signature Screening

“…The methods for such calculations based on multivariate data are currently under development. 14 , 34 …”

“…The outcome (i.e., the likelihood ratio) can then be communicated to court hearings in a transparent and scientific sound way. The methods for such calculations based on multivariate data are currently under development. , …”

“…The use of likelihood ratio methods for evidence evaluation is established in forensic statistics, 33 and it has also been suggested as a tool for assessment of propositions using multivariate chem-bio forensic data. 34 …”

“…To be useful in court, the statistical models have to be validated and the classification results translated into a quantitative measure of evidence for or against a proposition. The use of likelihood ratio methods for evidence evaluation is established in forensic statistics, and it has also been suggested as a tool for assessment of propositions using multivariate chem-bio forensic data …”

Hybrid approach combining chemometrics and likelihood ratio framework for reporting the evidential value of spectra

“…Therefore, the application of chemometric tools in the 105 forensic science has been gaining importance in recent years [16,17,15,14,18,19,20]. In spite of their usefulness in the field of data mining, outcomes of chemometric tools cannot be directly translated and interpreted for forensic purposes, as they do not always account for all essential aspects listed above (e.g.…”