Chimera: An atlas of regular vines on up to 8 nodes

Morales-Nápoles, Oswaldo; Rajabi-Bahaabadi, Mojtaba; Torres-Alves, Gina Alexandra; Hart, Cornelis Marcel Pieter ’t

doi:10.1038/s41597-023-02252-6

Cited by 7 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 34 publications

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“…However for 8 variables or larger this tasks becomes computationally challenging. Recently a dataset containing all regular vine structures on up to 8 nodes (more than 660 million) has been presented in Morales-Napoles et al (2023). For larger dimensions the algorithm proposed in Dißmann et al (2013) and variations of it are mostly used.…”

Section: Vine Copulasmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolution of flood protection levels and flood vulnerability in Europe since 1950 estimated with vine-copula models

Paprotny,

Hart,

Napoles

2024

Preprint

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The magnitude of flood losses is regulated not only by hydrometeorological hazard and exposure, but also flood protection levels (primarily from structural flood defenses) and vulnerability (relative loss at given intensity of hazard). Here, we infer the variation of both factors from data on historical riverine, coastal and compound floods and their impacts in 42 European countries over the period 1950–2020 obtained from the HANZE database. We contrast actual damaging floods, which imply flood protection was locally inadequate, with modelled potential floods, i.e. events that were hydrologically extreme but did not lead to significant impacts, which imply that flood protection was sufficient to prevent losses. Further, we compare the reported magnitude of impacts (fatalities, population affected, and economic losses) with potential impacts computed with a uniform, static approach. We finally derive the spatial and temporal drivers of both flood protection and vulnerability through a multivariate statistical analysis. We apply vine-copulas to derive the best predictors out of a long list of candidate variables, including hydrological parameters of floods, exposure to floods, socioeconomic development, and governance indicators. Our results show that flood protection improved since 1950, particularly for coastal floods. However, riverine protection levels are shown to be much lower than assumed in previous pan-European studies. A strong decline in flood vulnerability over time is also observed for all three indicators of relative losses, suggesting improved flood adaptation. However, there are very large variations in both flood protection and vulnerability between subnational regions in Europe.

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Section: Vine Copulasmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolution of flood protection levels and flood vulnerability in Europe since 1950 estimated with vine-copula models

Paprotny,

Hart,

Napoles

2024

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Evolution of flood protection levels and flood vulnerability in Europe since 1950 estimated with vine-copula models

Paprotny,

’t Hart,

Morales-Nápoles

2024

Nat Hazards

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The magnitude of flood impacts is regulated not only by hydrometeorological hazard and exposure, but also flood protection levels (primarily from structural flood defenses) and vulnerability (relative loss at given intensity of hazard). Here, we infer the variation of protection levels and vulnerability from data on historical riverine, coastal, and compound floods and associated impacts obtained from the HANZE database, in 42 European countries over the period 1950–2020. We contrast actual damaging floods, which imply flood protection was locally inadequate, with modelled potential floods, i.e. events that were hydrologically extreme but did not lead to significant impacts, which imply that flood protection was sufficient to prevent losses. Further, we compare the reported magnitude of impacts (fatalities, population affected, and economic losses) with potential impacts computed with depth-damage functions. We finally derive the spatial and temporal drivers of both flood protection and vulnerability through a multivariate statistical analysis. We apply vine-copulas to derive the best predictors out of a set of candidate variables, including hydrological parameters of floods, exposure to floods, socioeconomic development, and governance indicators. Our results show that riverine flood protection levels are much lower than assumed in previous pan-European studies. North-western Europe is shown to have better riverine protection than the south and east, while the divide is not so clear for coastal protection. By contrast, many parts of western Europe have relatively high vulnerability, with lowest value observed in central and northern Europe. Still, a strong decline in flood vulnerability over time is also observed for all three indicators of relative losses, suggesting improved flood adaptation. Flood protection levels have also improved since 1950, particularly for coastal floods.

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Time-variant reliability assessment for bridge structures based on deep learning and regular vine copula models

Xiao,

Liu,

Chen

et al. 2024

Measurement

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Chimera: An atlas of regular vines on up to 8 nodes

Cited by 7 publications

References 34 publications

Evolution of flood protection levels and flood vulnerability in Europe since 1950 estimated with vine-copula models

Evolution of flood protection levels and flood vulnerability in Europe since 1950 estimated with vine-copula models

Evolution of flood protection levels and flood vulnerability in Europe since 1950 estimated with vine-copula models

Time-variant reliability assessment for bridge structures based on deep learning and regular vine copula models

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