China, Autocratic Patron? An Empirical Investigation of China as a Factor in Autocratic Survival

Abstract

Critics frequently accuse China of acting as a patron for autocratic states. But does Chinese engagement actually increase the stability of authoritarian clients? This article demonstrates that Chinese bilateral interactions have little effect on the longevity of autocratic regimes. Analyses of different forms of Chinese bilateral engagement between 1993 and 2008—including state visits, arms trading, aid projects, economic cooperation, and trade dependence—show that only export dependence on China may increase the likelihood of survival for autocratic regimes while doing little to stabilize their democratic counterparts.

Do authoritarian regimes receive more Chinese development finance than democratic ones? Empirical evidence for Africa

“…In fact, looking at the entire period 2000-2011, the democratic/autocratic trajectory is fairly constant for some major recipients (such as Angola and Zimbabwe), slightly deteriorating for countries like Ethiopia (such as Ethiopia), and even slightly improving in other countries (such as Ghana). My descriptive statistics and the quantitative evidence by Bader (2015) suggest that the concern of reverse causality should not be overemphasised.…”

“…It may therefore not come as a surprise that the quantitative literature on China's development finance to developing countries is sparse (Bader, 2015;Strüver, 2016). This study is among the first to shed light on China's development finance activities in Africa using quantitative estimation techniques.…”

“…There exists very little empirical work, however, that analyses the nature of whether autocratic states are systematically targeted by Beijing's foreign assistance. Bader (2015) suggests that "Beijing has good reasons to work against a liberal order that facilitates challenges to authoritarian governments. China opposes both specific instances of liberal intervention and efforts to create international norms that favor intervention in the affairs of authoritarian states.…”

“…(p. 21). Bader's (2015) empirical study is among the first to provide quantitative evidence on whether or not Chinese development assistance increases the stability of authoritarian clients. Her study demonstrates that Chinese bilateral interactions have little effect on the longevity of autocratic regimes.…”

China's Economic Diplomacy and the Politics-Trade Nexus

“…4 In line with this, Bader (2015) finds that China's high-level diplomacy has no significant impact on the likelihood of survival of autocratic regimes.…”