China has faster pace than Japan in population aging in next 25 years

Abstract

The aging of a population structure is an inevitable path of demographic transition, as an inescapable result of decline in fertility rate and extension in life expectancy. Although demographic transition occurred earlier in Japan than in China, the two countries had similar patterns, both of which took a much shorter period of time than Western countries to complete demographic transition, as well as have been aging at a rapid speed that has rarely been seen in the world. Japan has the highest level of population aging in the world, and China has been experiencing a very fast pace of the population aging process and has the largest older population. Drawing upon data from World Population Prospects (2019), this paper compares changes in population aging in both China and Japan. Findings show that Japan's aging process is 30 years ahead of China, but China has been changing in a similar way as Japan. To be specific, both countries experienced four phases of the population aging process: accelerated development period, rapid development period, slow down period and high-level maintained period. In addition, both countries had a quick growing rate of population aging. It will take China 23 years and 10 years respectively for the aging rate increasing from 7% to 14% and then to 20%, while Japan took 24 and 11 years respectively, which is much shorter than developed countries in the West. Furthermore, China has a faster pace than Japan in population aging in the next 25 years. We found that from 2019-2044, China's aging rate, elderly dependency ratio, oldest-old coefficient and median age of population will increase 13.24 percent points, 24.21 percent points, 8.33 percent points, and 8.47 years, while the four indicators of Japan will increase 8.38 percent points, 22.52 percent points, 8.29 percent points, and 6.20 years, respectively.

Factors associated with preferences for elderly care mode and choice of caregivers among parents who lost their only child in a central China city

“…Nowhere is this truer than in China. 4 China has a lower aging rate than that of Japan; however, the number of older adults in China is many times greater than that of Japan (4.6-fold in 2019 and 8.8-fold in 2044). It has brought about a new group of people who have lost their only child in China, and the group is expanding rapidly.…”

“…4 China has a lower aging rate than that of Japan; however, the number of older adults in China is many times greater than that of Japan (4.6-fold in 2019 and 8.8-fold in 2044). 4 The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed actively responding to the aging of the population, and building a social environment and policy system for elderly care, filial piety, and respect for the elderly. 5 Parents who lost their only child is a special vulnerable group, and their elderly care issues are related to social security and stability.…”

“…2 For parents everywhere, the death of a child is one of life's greatest misfortunes. 4 The aging rate of these two countries is growing faster than developed countries in the West. The ≥30 years of the "One-Child Policy" in China has played a significant role in population control and boosting the economy.…”

“…The ≥30 years of the "One-Child Policy" in China has played a significant role in population control and boosting the economy. 4 The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed actively responding to the aging of the population, and building a social environment and policy system for elderly care, filial piety, and respect for the elderly. The China National Health Committee released statistics showing that the number of families in China who lost their only child rose to >1 million in 2011.…”

“…3 In 2019, the aging rates of China and Japan were approximately 11.47 and 28.00, respectively, and by 2044, they were 24.71 and 36.38, respectively. 4 The aging rate of these two countries is growing faster than developed countries in the West. Between 2020 and 2050, China's fertility rate is estimated to be between 1.70 and 1.75.…”