China has reached the Lewis turning point

Zhang, Xiaobo; Yang, Jiang-He; Wang, Shenglin

doi:10.1016/j.chieco.2011.07.002

Cited by 320 publications

(183 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…First, it is a census survey for large-scale enterprises rather than a sample survey. Second, the sample period encompasses the proposed Lewis turning point about 2004 as shown in Cai (2007) and Zhang et al (2011). Of course, the dataset has a drawback in that it does not cover private enterprises with sales less than RMB500 million.…”

Section: Sample Representativenessmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Has the ‘Flying Geese’ Phenomenon in Industrial Transformation Occurred in China?

Qu¹,

Cai²,

Zhang³

2012

Rebalancing and Sustaining Growth in China

Self Cite

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Section: Sample Representativenessmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Since the early 2000s, there have been an increasing number of media reports of labour shortages, in particular in the coastal regions (Cai 2010;Zhang et al 2011). Since 2004, the average wage has escalated by a double-digit percentage rate annually.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Has the ‘Flying Geese’ Phenomenon in Industrial Transformation Occurred in China?

Qu¹,

Cai²,

Zhang³

2012

Rebalancing and Sustaining Growth in China

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…They conclude that for institutional reasons both phenomena are likely to coexist at present and for some time in the future. However, Zhang et al (2011) holds that the acceleration of real wages even in slack seasons indicates that the era of surplus labor is over.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An explanation of labor migration and grain output growth: Findings of a case study in eastern Tibetan Plateau

et al. 2016

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Abstract:Although there has been rapid rural-urban migration in rural China since the 1980s, the total grain production of China saw a continuous increase. As of today, the relationship between labor migration and grain output growth remains partial and contradictory. The main aim of this empirical study is to examine some specific measures adopted by peasants to deal with labor shortage and maintain grain output growth. Using tracking survey, participatory rural appraisal methods, and land plot investigation, we investigate 274 households and 1405 arable land plots in four villages in two stages in Jinchuan county, southwestern China. The results show that continuous emigration of labor from the four villages caused the abandonment of a small amount of land, decreased labor intensity, and reduced multiple cropping index, shifting from "corn-wheat" multiple cropping pattern to the "corn" cropping pattern, which means labor shortage in some households. At the same time, owing to surplus labor in the villages, the peasants utilize a series of means to offset the negative impacts of labor migration on grain output, such as cropland transfer, labor exchange in the busy seasons, and the substitution of capital and technology for labor. The econometric analysis also shows that labor migration boosts grain production. This study provides a reasonable explanation of grain output growth under rural-urban migration.

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“…Hence, the service economy for ZT can play a vital role in closing wheat yield gaps for enhancing wheat self-sufficiency and food security in Bihar. However, the supply side of mechanization has received little attention in the literature, despite the fact that agricultural labor is becoming increasingly scarce due to out-migration to urban centers or engagement in non-agricultural income generating activities, thus driving up rural wages and increasing the economic rationale for agricultural mechanization (Zhang et al 2010;Agasty and Patra 2014;Mehta et al 2014;Kienzle et al 2013). Diao et al (2012) used the examples of Bangladesh, China, and India to discuss alternative supply models of agricultural mechanization.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Growing the service economy for sustainable wheat intensification in the Eastern Indo-Gangetic Plains: lessons from custom hiring services for zero-tillage

2016

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Zero-tillage (ZT) is a proven technology for enhancing wheat productivity and, hence, food security in the Indo-Gangetic Plains, while reducing production costs. However, very few farmers possess their own tractors much less the specialized seed drills required to implement the technology. As a consequence, adoption of ZT largely hinges on affordable access to custom hire services. In Eastern India, the service economy for ZT is expanding, but remains in the early stages of growth. ZT service businesses remain largely uncharacterized, and related business dynamics poorly understood. To address this knowledge gap and derive recommendations for an efficient targeting of public sector support for those service providers (SPs) who are poised for growth, we identified factors that influence ZT entrepreneurship, encompassing new business formation and the resulting scale of the enterprise. We used data from a census of 270 ZT SPs in Bihar, as documented by the Cereal Systems Initiative for South Asia (CSISA). To identify determinants of engaging in ZT service provision, the data were pooled with those of 1000 randomly-selected wheat farmers located in the same districts. We applied Heckman's two-step estimation procedure to derive unbiased estimates of determinants of the scale of the ZT service businesses. ZT SPs are generally larger, tractor-owning farmers who have taken up service provision as a side business since 2010 or later. Only 8.3 % of the surveyed farm households owned a tractor, demonstrating the importance of service provision for accessing ZT and other mechanization technologies. ZT SPs expanded their businesses considerably from 2011 to 2012 to an average total of 20 clients and 50 ha serviced per SP. However, larger areas were primarily achieved by servicing larger client farms. Welleducated farmers with larger land holdings and extensive social networks are most likely to become ZT SPs. However, among this stratum, the relatively smaller scale farmers were most likely to provide services at a sizeable scale. To efficiently accelerate the spread of ZT technology, we conclude that these smaller-scale tractor-owning farmers are the most sensible targets for purchase subsidies on ZT drills as well as the primary audience for business development training. Since a considerable fraction of the ZT area expansion resulted from service provision to larger client farms, there is a need to develop business models that enhance the social inclusiveness of ZT services by reducing the transaction costs of reaching smallholders.

show abstract

China has reached the Lewis turning point

Abstract: Journal articleIFPRI3; ISI; GRP32DSGDP

Cited by 320 publications

References 6 publications

Has the ‘Flying Geese’ Phenomenon in Industrial Transformation Occurred in China?

Has the ‘Flying Geese’ Phenomenon in Industrial Transformation Occurred in China?

An explanation of labor migration and grain output growth: Findings of a case study in eastern Tibetan Plateau

Growing the service economy for sustainable wheat intensification in the Eastern Indo-Gangetic Plains: lessons from custom hiring services for zero-tillage

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