China's ambitious energy transition plans

Shi, Xunpeng; Yong, Sun; Shen, Yifan

doi:10.1126/science.abj8773

Cited by 40 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…Global decarbonization and energy transition plans are more likely to succeed if they are inclusive, gradual, and tailored to the needs of each nation (Shi et al, 2021). While energy transition plays an essential role in achieving climate targets, over ambitious energy transition plans could backfire, in particular for those vulnerable nations.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Despite of increasing attention to just energy transition across regions, e.g. Shi et al, (2021), there is a lack of a comprehensive study to quantify the vulnerability of energy transitions that can support national policy-making and international climate cooperation. Most of recent studies on energy transition vulnerability, although covering various scales, including nations (Bouzarovski et al, 2017), cities (Calvo et al, 2021), counties (Snyder, 2018), communities (Axon and Morrissey, 2020), households (Streimikiene et al, 2021), and power generations sectors (Van Vliet et al, 2016), are still using qualitative methods, such as questionnaires, interviews, and focused groups discussions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessing energy transition vulnerability over nations and time

Shen

Shi

Zhang

2022

Preprint

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While achieving the Paris climate goals and sustainable development goals (SDGs) are two major global challenges of our time, energy transition that plays an essential role in achieving climate targets may create socio-economic hardship. A quantitative assessment of the vulnerability of energy transitions is a prerequisite for national and international policymakers to advance a just energy transition that looks after coordination between energy transitions and socio-economic development. This study proposes to measure energy transition vulnerability from the dimensions of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The results of energy transition vulnerability index (ETVI) scores for 135 nations reveal a huge inequality across nations; moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic has interrupted the decade-long continuous improvement of energy transition vulnerability. Developed countries usually have low energy transition vulnerability than developing countries and the gaps even have been widened. The existing global transition vulnerability could be mitigated by 12.3 p.p and 5.2 p.p if each nation could follow the path of global or climate party group frontiers in achieving the SDGs, despite the scale and drivers of mitigation vary across countries. The study also suggests that heterogeneous transition policies that consider both emissions and vulnerability are required. Our framework and findings could advise policymakers to formulate policies and cooperation strategies to reduce vulnerability, protect vulnerable countries, and make fair energy transition policies nationally and internationally.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing energy transition vulnerability over nations and time

Shen

Shi

Zhang

2022

Preprint

Self Cite

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“…In 2015, China pledged in its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions submitted to the Paris Agreement to reduce its emissions intensity by 60-65 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030. In 2020, China committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 (Shi et al 2021b). China's long-awaited national emissions-trading scheme (ETS) made its debut in July 2021.…”

Section: China's Climate Policy: An Australian Perspectivementioning

confidence: 99%

The transition to carbon neutrality in China and its impacts on Australia

Peng¹,

Shi²,

Feng³

et al. 2022

China’s Transition to a New Phase of Development

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As the world's largest developing country, China is marching towards ambitious climate goals of achieving peak carbon by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. Given that China is the largest buyer of Australia's iron ore and one of the largest buyers of Australia's coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG), such climate efforts could be expected to impact Australia profoundly. This chapter examines how China's transition to carbon neutrality will affect the Australian economy at the national and state levels and by industry. Our simulation shows that although China's imports of Australian fossil fuels will fall significantly, the impact of those changes on the national economy is negligible. However, the mining sector and those states and territories that rely on fossil fuel production will suffer relatively larger effects.

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“…Overall, based on China's power system characteristics, the low-carbon transition in China's electric system needs to avoid the imbalance between power supply and demand caused by some radical policies [23]. China's policies for controlling energy consumption intensity and total amount have been seen as key contributors to the power shortage.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Low-Carbon Transformation of Electric System against Power Shortage in China: Policy Optimization

et al. 2022

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The low-carbon transition of the power system is essential for China to achieve peak carbon and carbon neutrality. However, China could suffer power shortages due to radical policies in some extreme cases. The gap between power demand and supply from March 2021 to November 2021 ranged between 5.2 billion kW·h and 24.6 billion kW·h. The main reason for the power shortage was over-reliance on renewable energy and insufficient coal power supply for the power system. The low-carbon transformation path of the electric system needs to be explored with more flexibility for power security. This study applied a modified LEAP model and carried out a forecast analysis of thermal power generation and installed capacity in 2025 and 2030 under normal and extreme weather scenarios. The results suggested that: the installed capacity of thermal power will need to account for about 44.6–46.1% of power generation in 2025 and 37.4–39.3% in 2030, with the assumption of power shortages caused by the instability and uncertainty of renewable power. In the future, China needs to pursue the development of diversified energy sources and enhance the power supply security capability while strengthening the development and utilization of renewable energy.

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China's ambitious energy transition plans

Cited by 40 publications

References 6 publications

Assessing energy transition vulnerability over nations and time

Assessing energy transition vulnerability over nations and time

The transition to carbon neutrality in China and its impacts on Australia

Low-Carbon Transformation of Electric System against Power Shortage in China: Policy Optimization

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