China's natural gas exploration and development strategies under the new normal

Lu, Jialiang; Zhao, Suping

doi:10.1016/j.ngib.2015.12.001

Cited by 9 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…As noted above, this has been caused, in part, by the cross-subsidisation programme that inflates gas prices for industrial users to ensure an artificially low price for residential consumers. The high gas price has even seen a "reverse replacement" of gas with coal in some industrial sectors (Lu and Zhao 2015). This happened again in the winter of 2017/18 in the face of physical shortage of gas that also resulted in higher prices.…”

Section: Industrial Demandmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Over time, this has brought the well costs down, and such activity was further supported by higher natural gas prices (EIA, 2016). Productivity remains a key concern, however, which has been attributed to unfavourable geology (including low permeability and low gas content), the technology level in the field, operations management inefficiencies, personnel experience levels, and well design techniques, amongst others (Lu and Zhao 2015;Mu et al 2015;. Overall, development of CBM has been slow in addressing the country's need for natural gas, with 95% of 2014's CBM production focussed in just two basins in the Shanxi Province (Mu et al 2015).…”

Section: Unconventional Gasmentioning

confidence: 99%

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China’s dash for gas: local challenges and global consequences

Bradshaw

Waterworth

2020

Eurasian Geography and Economics

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Section: Industrial Demandmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Unconventional Gasmentioning

confidence: 99%

China’s dash for gas: local challenges and global consequences

Bradshaw

Waterworth

2020

Eurasian Geography and Economics

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“…21 Lu et al analyzed the peaks of conventional gas (including tight gas), coalbed methane (CBM), and shale gas production in China using various methods, such as the grey-Hubbert method and the neural network-Hubbert composite model, and proposed several countermeasures and recommendations. 22 Wang and Liu used a multicycle generalized Weng model to forecast China's natural gas production and thereby determined the peak level of China's natural gas production under the existing technical conditions. 23 Jia et al predicted China's natural gas production using the production components method.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Research on the security of natural gas supply and demand in China under the dual carbon target

Zhang,

Wang,

Xue

et al. 2024

Science Progress

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The security of natural gas supply is not only an important part of China's energy security, it also serves as a basic guarantee for China to achieve its dual carbon target and energy transition. Therefore, it is very important to conduct research on the security of China's natural gas supply and demand in the context of the dual carbon target. This paper develops a system dynamics (SD) model for natural gas demand forecasting and a generalized Weng's model for production forecasting to predict China's natural gas demand and production under different scenarios during 2022–2060, and then analyzes China's natural gas supply and demand situation and potential import and external dependence based on the forecast results. The simulation results show that (1) under the two demand scenarios D1 and D2, China's natural gas demand will peak at 766.02 billion m3 in 2046 and 708.07 billion m3 in 2036 and decline to 521.65 billion m3 and 278.99 billion m3 in 2060 respectively; (2) under the two production scenarios S1 and S2, China's natural gas production will peak at 344.581 billion m3 in 2042 and 366.341 billion m3 in 2043 and decrease to about 250 billion m3 in 2060; (3) before 2035, the security of natural gas supply in China will face a challenging situation, the total volume of potential gas imports will gradually increase to about 350 billion m3, and China's dependence on natural gas imports will exceed 50%; after 2035, the progress of China's energy transition will improve the security of its natural gas supply. This paper proposes four recommendations for expanding gas demand in the near to medium term, promoting conventional and unconventional gas production, diversifying import channels and building emergency reserves to ensure China's gas supply security and enable gas to play a “bridging” role in the energy transition.

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“…The natural gas demand has been primarily driven by economic growth in India. The Indian Government is promoting natural gas to reduce crude oil imports by 10% from the current level by 2022 and reduce emissions (Lu and Zhao, 2015; Shell, 2021). The consumption is expected to rise from 7.9 TCF in 2012 to 17.2 TCF by 2040 at an annual growth rate of 2.8% (Wainberg et al , 2017).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the strategies to accelerate the natural gas business market growth in a developing country

Rawat

Garg

2022

JBIM

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Purpose Rising energy demand and the quest for achieving climate change targets have been pushing emerging markets like India to bolster the natural gas share in their energy mix. The country has set an aggressive target of increasing natural gas share in the energy mix to 15% by 2030. The purpose of this study is to acknowledge the need for adopting and developing strategies for natural gas business market development to ensure a reliable supply at an affordable price. Hence, this study explores the natural gas market business development strategies and assesses them through cause/effect analysis. Design/methodology/approach This study proposed an integrated framework based on the Grey concept and Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) technique to assess and determine the interdependence among the natural gas business market development strategies by cause-and-effect group analysis. The application of Grey theory reduced the uncertainty and subjectivity involved in the decision-making process. Later, sensitivity analysis is also performed to check the robustness of the framework. Findings The natural gas business market development strategies are identified through a systematic literature search and contributions from industry experts. The findings of this study highlight the importance of developing pipeline and storage infrastructure facilities, ensuring supply security through long-term imports and overseas investment, implementing free-market-based pricing, simplification and standardization of regulatory processes at state and national levels, etc., for the development of the natural gas market development in India. Research limitations/implications This study acknowledges the natural gas market development strategies and evaluated them into cause-and-effect groups which are limited to Indian context. All evaluations in the Grey-based DEMATEL method were made in this study based on the decision team inputs which limits the generalization to other geographies. Moreover, the opinions of the experts can be subjective and differ. The selection of the experts is done through non-probability sampling process. Practical implications This study could support the government and decision-makers in formulating the appropriate strategies to develop the domestic natural gas market. The cause-and-effect relationships are helpful for the companies, management, government, regulators and other stakeholders to understand the criticality of the causal strategies that must be implemented for developing the favorable natural gas business market scenario. Originality/value This study explores and evaluates the strategies that successfully bolster the natural gas business demand in India using Grey-based DEMATEL framework. By focusing on those critical strategies, relevant stakeholders would ensure a reliable natural gas supply at affordable prices.

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China's natural gas exploration and development strategies under the new normal

Cited by 9 publications

References 2 publications

China’s dash for gas: local challenges and global consequences

China’s dash for gas: local challenges and global consequences

Research on the security of natural gas supply and demand in China under the dual carbon target

Modeling the strategies to accelerate the natural gas business market growth in a developing country

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