China’s rise and the Arctic region up to 2049 – three scenarios for regional futures in an era of climate change and power transition

Kauppila, Liisa; Kopra, Sanna

doi:10.1080/2154896x.2022.2058216

Cited by 4 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…In the most "alarmist" visions, as in the words of the former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, China's expansion could even transform the Arctic into "a new South China Sea, fraught with militarization and competing territorial claims" (Pompeo, 2019). While Pompeo's vision may be a little exaggerated, it seems reasonable to believe that China's growing regional presence will significantly shape the political and economic futures of the Arctic (see Kauppila & Kopra, 2022;Kopra, 2022). Against this backdrop, it is hardly surprising that much recent literature explores China's Arctic interests, political and economic activities, and contributions to regional governance (see, for example, Bennett & Eiterjord, 2022;Fravel, Lavelle & Odgaard, 2021;Kauppila, 2022;Kobzeva 1 The book has its own subchapter on military operations within the Polar regions.…”

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confidence: 99%

China’s Arctic Strategy – a Comprehensive Approach in Times of Great Power Rivalry

Puranen,

Kopra

2023

Scandinavian Journal of Military Studies

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There are growing signs that great power rivalry is making a comeback in the Arctic region, and China, a self-proclaimed "near-Arctic state," has shown growing interest in expanding its activity in it. This article investigates China's Arctic intentions in the context of the recently emerging notion of "total national security" in the country, and suggests that individual aspects of China's Arctic strategy -including its Arctic military strategy -should not be analyzed on their own but should, rather, be seen as a manifestation of China's rather unique total security conception in a regional context. Drawing insights from original, official, Chinese-language sources, discussions on China's Arctic strategy among Chinese security experts and academic communities, and by observing recent Chinese economic, political, and scientific activities in the Arctic, the article demonstrates that China's Arctic strategy follows what we describe as a "comprehensive approach" consisting of four main arms: political, economic, scientific, and military. This strategy is designed to advance the party-state's influence in the Arctic through simultaneously moulding discourses and challenging legal concepts of the Arctic (political), boosting its economic interests in the Arctic (economic), fusing civil-military scientific and technological innovation (scientific), and preparing for a military presence in the Arctic (military). Finally, the article concludes that as the significance of the Arctic for China's long-term security strategy is guided by Xi Jinping's thought on total national security, future analyses of China's Arctic intentions should pay particular attention to this evolving concept.

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