Choice of Countermeasures in Project Risk Management Using Fuzzy Modelling

Abstract

The paper proposes a new method for project risk management. It is proposed how, after risk identification, the countermeasures for risk mitigation and elimination can be selected, taking into account the cost and effort linked to them as well as the weights assigned by the decision maker to risk attributes, such as probability or consequences, and the values of those attributes. The risk attributes and weights, as well as the maximal total risk and the maximal total effort of risk mitigation accepted by the decision maker for the project are expressed as fuzzy numbers, which in turn constitute models for linguistic expressions.

A novel approach for risk evaluation and risk response planning in a geothermal drilling project using DEMATEL and fuzzy ANP

“…Main focus Criteria (Ben-David et al, 2002) Representation of a mathematical model which allows the overlapping effects of multiple response actions and considers the impacts of secondary risk events Cost (Kujawski, 2002) Viewing the issue as a portfolio theory problem and generating efficient set of responses by trade-off between project cost vs. probability of success Cost (Fan et al, 2008) (Zhang & Fan, 2014) Iterative process by the project manager who makes trade-offs between three critical elements of the project (cost, schedule, quality) Cost, Time and Quality (Soofifard & Bafruei, 2017) Offering positive or negative synergism between responses and balancing the selected responses based on their prerequisites and requisites relations Cost, Time and Quality (Seyedhoseini et al, 2009) Minimizing the undesirable deviation from achieving the project scope during an iterative planning process methodology and combining results with project planning Cost, Time, Quality, Scope (Samadi et al, 2014) Proposing a framework respect to multi-dimensional nature of the project risks in a network and respond to highly prioritized risks Cost, Time, Quality, Scope (Klein et al 1994) Assessing risk related to a prototype activity in order to save time, expense and effort spent on risk analysis Qualitative (Motaleb & Kishk, 2014) Surveying the effectiveness of maturity in organization, project management and systems for evaluating the risk responses Qualitative (Kuchta & Skorupka, 2014) Considering various levels (based on closeness or manageability or accessibility or etc.) and several attributes (like probability, consequences and etc.)…”

“…In addition to the mentioned criteria, customer satisfaction and other factors are suggested in the (Kuchta & Skorupka, 2014) model as indexed variables which each index belongs to a criterion. 228 Previous papers have not considered interdependencies between risks.…”

Application of Logistic Regression to Supporting Contractors Decision

“…The logit model takes the following general form [13,14]: (1) where: -structural parameters of the model, -random component, -logit, -unobservable qualitative variable, -values of the independent variables of the model, -probability of assuming the value "1" by the dependent value calculated on the basis of the density function of the logistic distribution. The unobservable variable is defined as a hidden variable, since one observes only the binary Y i in the form:…”

“…On the other hand, not participating in a tender means failing to take advantage of an opportunity to make a profit, to improve the company's position and strength in the market or to establish relationships with new clients. The ability to choose the right bid influences the company's general condition and future development, considering the risk involved in any construction project [1,2,3]. The efficiency of bidding decisions can be improved by applying decision support models.…”

Fuzzy analysis of project duration in situations of risk

“…Such a model was proposed by Zhan and Fan [6] (probabilistic approach) and by Kuchta and Skorupka [7] (fuzzy approach). A new way of modeling project task duration in construction projects by means of a mixed probability distribution is proposed in paper [8].…”