Citizen Forecasting: The 2022 French Presidential Election

Abstract

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Predicting in an (increasingly) unpredictable system? Forty years of election forecasting in France

“…Citizen forecasting relies on the aggregation of voters' expectations about election outcomes. This approach has proven quite successful in the US and the UK (see, e.g., Boon 2012;Graefe 2014;Lewis-Beck and Stegmaier 2011;Murr 2011;2015;Murr et al 2021) and it will be formally put to the test for the 2022 French presidential election (see Dufresne et al 2022). Most studies explain the quality of citizens' forecasts by the 'miracle of aggregation' theorem, which states that errors in individuals' judgments tend to cancel out in the aggregate.…”

Combining Forecasts for the 2022 French Presidential Election: The PollyVote

“…The good news is that researchers have started to collect citizen forecasts for different types of elections. For the 2022 French presidential election, Dufresne et al (2022) provided citizen forecasts based on data from representative surveys of 1,000 respondents. Table 1 shows the citizen forecasts derived from their survey conducted in late November 2021.…”

Introduction to Forecasting the 2022 French Presidential Election

“…Innovating on two levels, the efforts of Jérôme, Mongrain, and Nadeau (2022) develop a “synthetic” model to predict the outcomes of French presidential elections (combining it with the SUR approach). In a pioneering turn, Dufresne, Jérôme, Lewis-Beck, Murr, and Savoie (2022) test the utility of citizen forecasting whereby respondents provide voter expectations rather than voter intentions. Graefe’s (2022) contribution represents the first attempt to use the PollyVote approach to forecast national elections in France, including the combination of forecasts and the addition of a panel of French experts.…”