Citizen preferences about border arrangements in divided societies: Evidence from a conjoint experiment in Northern Ireland

Abstract

Border arrangements are often critical to the successful negotiation of peace settlements and the broader politics of post-conflict societies. However, developing an understanding of popular preferences about these arrangements is difficult using traditional surveys. To address this problem, we used a conjoint survey experiment to assess preferences about post-Brexit border arrangements in Northern Ireland. We mapped areas of convergence and divergence in the preferences about post-Brexit border arrangements of unionist and nationalist communities, simulated the degree of public support for politically plausible outcomes and identified the border arrangements that both communities could agree upon. In so doing, we outlined an empirical approach to understanding public preferences about border arrangements that could be used to understand the degree of support for similar institutional arrangements in other divided societies.

Borders and bullies: How borders shape perceptions of security and foreign policy preferences

“…They project political authority to the outside world and towards their own citizens (Simmons and Kenwick, 2022). Borders shape expectations, perceptions, and de facto implementation of sovereignty and of peace processes (Krasner, 2001; Lake, 2003; Morgan-Jones et al, 2020). They establish a sense of belonging and unity for those encircled by a common boundary line.…”

Citizens and Peace Mediations in Divided Societies: Identifying Zones of Agreement through a Conjoint Survey Experiment

“…1.For earlier work on peace negotiations and public opinion see also Shamir and Shamir (1995); Shamir and Shikaki (2005) on Israel/Palestine, Irwin (2004), Lordos et al (2009) and Psaltis et al (2020) on Cyprus, Garry (2009) and Morgan-Jones et al (2020) on Northern Ireland and Tuathail et al (2006) on Bosnia as well as studies by Tellez (2019) on Colombia and Carey et al. on Sri Lanka in this special feature section.…”

Civil War Settlements, Perceived Agreement Fairness, and Trust in Political Authorities: Investigating the Influence of Power Sharing on Public Opinion in Divided Societies

“…22.See Morgan-Jones et al (2020) and Loizides et al (2022) for examples of micro-level experimental research into citizens’ perceptions of power-sharing measures.…”